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加密貨幣新聞文章

從最近的多個月高點開始了一大批經濟情緒和企業信貸健康

2025/03/21 20:10

考慮的指標是ICE/BOFA US高收益指數期權調整的擴散(OAS)

從最近的多個月高點開始了一大批經濟情緒和企業信貸健康

A key gauge of economic sentiment and corporate credit health has pulled back from its recent multi-month highs in a positive development for risk-taking in stocks and crypto markets. The relief, however, could be short-lived, according to some observers.

在股票和加密貨幣市場的積極發展方面,一定的經濟情緒和企業信貸健康的關鍵衡量已從其最近的多個月高點中撤出。然而,據一些觀察家稱,這種救濟可能是短暫的。

The indicator in question is the ICE/BofA U.S. High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS). It tracks the average yield difference (spread) between U.S. dollar-denominated high-yield corporate bonds and U.S. Treasury securities, adjusted for embedded optionality in the bonds.

所討論的指標是ICE/BOFA US高收益指數選擇調整的擴散(OAS)。它跟踪了以美元計價的高收益公司債券和美國財政證券之間的平均收益率差異(利差),該證券已針對債券中的嵌入式期權性進行了調整。

It’s widely recognized as a credit risk barometer, with a wider spread indicating greater investor concern about corporate defaults or economic weakness, which often leads to investors reducing their exposure to riskier assets such as technology stocks and cryptocurrencies.

它被廣泛認為是一種信用風險晴雨表,廣泛的價差表明投資者對公司違約或經濟弱點的關注更大,這通常會導致投資者減少其對技術股票和加密貨幣等風險較高的資產的影響。

The OAS, which represents the premium investors demand for holding high-yielding bonds over the relatively safer Treasury notes, has decreased to 3.2% from the six-month high of 3.4% reached earlier this month.

OA代表了高級投資者對持有高收益債券比相對更安全的國庫券的需求的要求,比本月早些時候達到的3.4%的六個月高點下降到3.2%。

This decline in the spread has coincided with a renewed rally in bitcoin (BTC) and Nasdaq.

利差的這種下降與比特幣(BTC)和納斯達克的重新集會相吻合。

The spread surged by 100 basis points in four weeks to mid-March as President Donald Trump's tariffs sparked concerns of a recession. During that period, both BTC and Nasdaq suffered setbacks, with the cryptocurrency falling to lows below $80K.

唐納德·特朗普總統的關稅引發了對經濟衰退的擔憂,這次蔓延在四個星期內飆升了100個基點。在此期間,BTC和納斯達克均遭受挫折,加密貨幣降至低於$ 80K。

Temporary respite?

暫時的喘息?

Analysts anticipate that the OAS spread will widen further in the coming weeks as the negative impact of Trump's tariffs becomes more apparent, according to Mint and Reuters.

分析師預計,隨著特朗普關稅的負面影響變得更加明顯,OAS的傳播將在未來幾週內進一步擴大。

"We think this is just getting started and will get worse before it gets better," said Hans Mikkelsen, managing director of credit strategy at TD Securities, in a recent note to clients.

TD Securities信用策略董事總經理漢斯·米克爾森(Hans Mikkelsen)在對客戶的最新票據中說:“我們認為這剛剛起步,在變得更好之前會變得更糟。”

Applying technical analysis principles to the OAS chart also suggests the same.

將技術分析原則應用於OAS圖表也相同。

The spread has moved above the three-year descending trendline, which is a significant level to watch for risk asset investors.

這次差異已經超過了為期三年的下降趨勢線,這是關注風險資產投資者的重要水平。

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