摩根大通在市场回调中对数字资产采取谨慎态度

由于散户兴趣下降以及美国现货比特币 ETF 资金大量流出，摩根大通对数字资产表示谨慎。刺激措施的缺乏和短期零售参与度的下降促成了该银行的立场。现货比特币 ETF 的资金流出以及比特币兑黄金价格和生产成本的上涨也引发了担忧。在期权市场，交易员预计夏季可能出现放缓，隐含波动率下降，看跌期权比率为 0.49，表明看跌偏见。

JPMorgan's Cautious Stance on Digital Assets Amidst Market Downturn

市场低迷之际摩根大通对数字资产持谨慎立场

Wall Street banking behemoth JPMorgan Chase & Co. has adopted a conservative stance towards digital assets in the foreseeable future, citing a lack of market stimuli and waning retail investor enthusiasm. This cautious approach is further supported by recent outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

华尔街银行业巨头摩根大通在可预见的未来对数字资产采取保守立场，理由是缺乏市场刺激以及散户投资者热情减弱。最近美国现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）的资金流出进一步支持了这种谨慎态度。

In a recent report, JPMorgan highlighted three primary headwinds that could exacerbate market volatility: the elevated price of Bitcoin relative to gold and its estimated production cost, excessive positioning in the market, and a decline in crypto venture capital funding.

摩根大通在最近的一份报告中强调了可能加剧市场波动的三个主要不利因素：比特币相对于黄金的价格及其估计生产成本的上涨、市场定位过度以及加密货币风险投资资金的下降。

The past few weeks have witnessed significant profit-taking in cryptocurrency markets, with retail investors playing a significant role in the sell-off rather than institutional investors. In April alone, the price of Bitcoin plummeted by an unprecedented 16%, marking its steepest monthly decline since the FTX collapse in November 2022.

过去几周，加密货币市场出现了大幅获利回吐，散户投资者而非机构投资者在抛售中发挥了重要作用。仅 4 月份，比特币价格就史无前例地暴跌 16%，创下自 2022 年 11 月 FTX 崩盘以来的最大单月跌幅。

On Wednesday, investors unloaded U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs at an alarming rate. The combined net outflow from 11 ETFs amounted to a staggering $563.7 million, the largest withdrawal since their inception on January 11th.

周三，投资者以惊人的速度抛售美国现货比特币 ETF。 11只ETF的净流出总额达到惊人的5.637亿美元，这是自1月11日成立以来最大的撤资规模。

According to JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the dominant institutional investors involved in the sell-off were predominantly momentum traders, such as commodity trading advisors (CTAs) and quantitative funds, who were taking profits on their previously extreme long positions in Bitcoin and gold.

Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou 领导的摩根大通分析师表示，参与抛售的主要机构投资者主要是动量交易者，例如商品交易顾问（CTA）和量化基金，他们从之前在比特币和黄金中的极端多头头寸中获利了结。

Furthermore, an analysis of the futures market reveals a "more limited position reduction by other institutional investors outside quantitative funds and CTAs."

此外，对期货市场的分析显示，“量化基金和商品交易顾问之外的其他机构投资者的头寸减持更为有限”。

Bitcoin Options Data Hints at Summer Lull

比特币期权数据暗示夏季平静

Approximately 23,000 Bitcoin options are approaching expiration, featuring a Put Call Ratio of 0.49, a Maxpain point of $61,000, and a combined notional value of $1.4 billion.

大约 23,000 个比特币期权即将到期，看跌期权比率为 0.49，Maxpain 点为 61,000 美元，名义总价值为 14 亿美元。

Analysts suggest that the market is bracing itself for a period of subdued trading activity during the summer months. "Summers typically exhibit low volatility, prompting traders to adjust their positions accordingly, depending on their outlook," an analyst remarked.

分析师表示，市场正在为夏季交易活动低迷时期做好准备。 “夏季通常表现出较低的波动性，促使交易者根据他们的前景相应地调整头寸，”一位分析师表示。

Since mid-April, Bitcoin's implied volatility has declined significantly. Data from The Block's Data Dashboard illustrates a drop in the implied volatility of Bitcoin at-the-money options from over 77% to under 60% for one-week, one-month, and multi-month expirations.

4月中旬以来，比特币隐含波动率大幅下降。 The Block 数据仪表板的数据显示，一周、一个月和多月到期的比特币平价期权的隐含波动率从 77% 以上下降到 60% 以下。

During periods of diminished trading volumes, liquidity gaps in the market can amplify volatility. While summers tend to be relatively quiet in equities markets, historical events such as the DeFi summer of 2017 and the previous major bull run demonstrate the potential for diminished liquidity to spur bullish sentiments in cryptocurrency markets.

在交易量减少期间，市场的流动性缺口可能会放大波动性。虽然股票市场的夏季往往相对平静，但 2017 年 DeFi 夏季和之前的主要牛市等历史事件表明，流动性减少有可能刺激加密货币市场的看涨情绪。