摩根大通在市場回調中對數位資產採取謹慎態度

由於散戶興趣下降以及美國現貨比特幣 ETF 資金大量流出，摩根大通對數位資產表示謹慎。刺激措施的缺乏和短期零售參與度的下降促成了該銀行的立場。現貨比特幣 ETF 的資金流出以及比特幣兌黃金價格和生產成本的上漲也引發了擔憂。在期權市場，交易員預計夏季可能出現放緩，隱含波動率下降，看跌期權比率為 0.49，表明看跌偏見。

JPMorgan's Cautious Stance on Digital Assets Amidst Market Downturn

市場低迷之際摩根大通對數位資產持謹慎立場

Wall Street banking behemoth JPMorgan Chase & Co. has adopted a conservative stance towards digital assets in the foreseeable future, citing a lack of market stimuli and waning retail investor enthusiasm. This cautious approach is further supported by recent outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

華爾街銀行業巨頭摩根大通在可預見的未來對數位資產採取保守立場，理由是缺乏市場刺激以及散戶熱情減弱。最近美國現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）的資金流出進一步支持了這種謹慎態度。

In a recent report, JPMorgan highlighted three primary headwinds that could exacerbate market volatility: the elevated price of Bitcoin relative to gold and its estimated production cost, excessive positioning in the market, and a decline in crypto venture capital funding.

摩根大通在最近的報告中強調了可能加劇市場波動的三個主要不利因素：比特幣相對於黃金的價格及其估計生產成本的上漲、市場定位過度以及加密貨幣風險投資資金的下降。

The past few weeks have witnessed significant profit-taking in cryptocurrency markets, with retail investors playing a significant role in the sell-off rather than institutional investors. In April alone, the price of Bitcoin plummeted by an unprecedented 16%, marking its steepest monthly decline since the FTX collapse in November 2022.

過去幾週，加密貨幣市場出現了大幅獲利回吐，散戶而不是機構投資者在拋售中發揮了重要作用。光是 4 月份，比特幣價格就史無前例地暴跌 16%，創下自 2022 年 11 月 FTX 崩盤以來的最大單月跌幅。

On Wednesday, investors unloaded U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs at an alarming rate. The combined net outflow from 11 ETFs amounted to a staggering $563.7 million, the largest withdrawal since their inception on January 11th.

週三，投資者以驚人的速度拋售美國現貨比特幣 ETF。 11隻ETF的淨流出總額達到驚人的5.637億美元，這是自1月11日成立以來最大的撤資規模。

According to JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the dominant institutional investors involved in the sell-off were predominantly momentum traders, such as commodity trading advisors (CTAs) and quantitative funds, who were taking profits on their previously extreme long positions in Bitcoin and gold.

Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou 領導的摩根大通分析師表示，參與拋售的主要機構投資者主要是動量交易者，例如商品交易顧問（CTA）和量化基金，他們從之前在比特幣和黃金中的極端多頭頭寸中獲利了結。

Furthermore, an analysis of the futures market reveals a "more limited position reduction by other institutional investors outside quantitative funds and CTAs."

此外，對期貨市場的分析顯示，「量化基金和商品交易顧問以外的其他機構投資者的部位減持更為有限」。

Bitcoin Options Data Hints at Summer Lull

比特幣期權數據暗示夏季平靜

Approximately 23,000 Bitcoin options are approaching expiration, featuring a Put Call Ratio of 0.49, a Maxpain point of $61,000, and a combined notional value of $1.4 billion.

大約 23,000 個比特幣選擇權即將到期，看跌期權比率為 0.49，Maxpain 點為 61,000 美元，名義總價值為 14 億美元。

Analysts suggest that the market is bracing itself for a period of subdued trading activity during the summer months. "Summers typically exhibit low volatility, prompting traders to adjust their positions accordingly, depending on their outlook," an analyst remarked.

分析師表示，市場正在為夏季交易活動低迷時期做好準備。 「夏季通常表現出較低的波動性，促使交易者根據他們的前景相應地調整頭寸，」一位分析師表示。

Since mid-April, Bitcoin's implied volatility has declined significantly. Data from The Block's Data Dashboard illustrates a drop in the implied volatility of Bitcoin at-the-money options from over 77% to under 60% for one-week, one-month, and multi-month expirations.

自4月中旬以來，比特幣隱含波動率大幅下降。 The Block 數據儀表板的數據顯示，一週、一個月和個多月到期的比特幣平價選擇權的隱含波動率從 77% 以上下降到 60% 以下。

During periods of diminished trading volumes, liquidity gaps in the market can amplify volatility. While summers tend to be relatively quiet in equities markets, historical events such as the DeFi summer of 2017 and the previous major bull run demonstrate the potential for diminished liquidity to spur bullish sentiments in cryptocurrency markets.

在交易量減少期間，市場的流動性缺口可能會放大波動性。雖然股票市場的夏季往往相對平靜，但 2017 年 DeFi 夏季和之前的主要牛市等歷史事件表明，流動性減少有可能刺激加密貨幣市場的看漲情緒。