日本的30年债券收益率激增了多年的高点

拿一杯咖啡，以了解金融市场的表现，这可能是更广泛的全球风险转变的开始

Good morning and welcome to the US morning crypto news briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for Monday, April 24.

早上好，欢迎来到美国早上加密新闻简报 - 4月24日星期一加密最重要的发展中，您的必不可少。

Grab a coffee to see how financial markets are performing in what could be the start of a broader global risk-off shift, particularly as monetary tightening returns to center stage in Asia and the West.

拿一杯咖啡，看看金融市场的表现如何，这可能是全球风险转变的开端，尤其是随着货币收紧到亚洲和西方的中心舞台的收益。

Japan’s 30-Year Bond Yield Surges to Multi-Decade Highs

日本的30年债券收益率激增了多年的高点

Japan’s 30-year bond yield has surged to the highest level in 20 years, rising by 12 basis points (bps) to reach 2.345%.

日本的30年债券收益率在20年来上升到最高水平，上升了12个基点（BP），达到2.345％。

This pushes the yield on the benchmark bond to its strongest since January 2004, and it is deepening the stress in global fixed-income markets.

这将基准债券的收益率提高到了2004年1月以来的最强，它正在加深全球固定收益市场的压力。

It bodes poorly for Bitcoin (BTC) and other risk-on assets, Agne Linge, director of growth at decentralized on-chain bank WeFi, believes.

认为，比特币（BTC）和其他风险符合资产的体现很差，分散的链银行WEFI的增长总监Agne Linge认为。

In an email to BeInCrypto, Linge said a major shift might be in the pipeline for risk assets. She cited macroeconomic trends in Japan as they pertain to the current surge in the 30-year bond yield.

Linge在给Beincrypto的一封电子邮件中说，可能会有重大转变的风险资产。她引用了日本的宏观经济趋势，因为它们与当前30年债券收益率的激增有关。

“With the bond yield jumping 2.345% to its highest level in 30 years, more risk-averse institutional investors might shun Bitcoin and other speculative assets,” Linge stated.

Linge说：“随着债券收益率在30年来上升到其最高水平的2.345％，越来越多的机构投资者可能会避开比特币和其他投机资产。”

As Japan’s long-term bond yields rise, it puts more pressure on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to respond with a possible interest rate hike. Analysts say this could come as early as the end of April.

随着日本的长期债券收益率的增加，它给日本银行（BOJ）带来了更大的压力，要求他们可能提高利率。分析人士说，这可能最早到4月底。

If the BoJ does tighten policy, it would be a big change for a central bank that has kept monetary conditions very loose for a long time.

如果棚屋加强了政策，那么对于一家将货币条件一直很长时间保持宽松的中央银行来说，这将是一个很大的变化。

“If this forecast plays out as expected, it might lead to dried-up liquidity in the traditional financial market. Since crypto thrives more on excess monetary liquidity, this could also influence the performance of the asset shortly,” she added.

她补充说：“如果这种预测按预期进行，它可能会导致传统金融市场的流动性干燥。由于加密货币的货币流动性超越了更多的货币流动性，这也可能会影响资产的绩效。”

One key aspect is the yen carry trade, a strategy where global investors borrow yen at low rates to invest in assets with higher yields in other countries. This trade does well when Japanese rates are low, and international risk appetite is strong.

一个关键方面是日元携带贸易，这项战略是全球投资者以低利率借用日元来投资于其他国家 /地区收益率更高的资产。当日本利率较低时，这项贸易很好，国际风险的食欲强劲。

What Does It Mean for Bitcoin?

这对比特币意味着什么？

But as Japanese yields go up, and there’s more talk of the BoJ raising interest rates, it becomes less appealing to borrow yen.

但是，随着日本人产量的上升，关于展望提高的利率的谈话也更多，借用日元的吸引力就变得不那么吸引人了。

This could lead to less liquidity in markets around the world as the carry trade slows down, which could put downward pressure on crypto and other assets that rely on easy money.

随着货运贸易减慢，这可能导致全球市场流动性较小，这可能会给加密货币和其他依赖容易资金的资产带来向下压力。

Such an outcome would increase the potential for a downturn, which ties into BeInCrypto’s recent analysis of how Bitcoin’s price is at risk as the reverse yen carry trade unwinds.

这样的结果将增加衰退的潜力，这与Beincrypto最近对比特币价格如何面临风险的分析有关，因为反向日元的贸易放松。

“The problem today is that those borrowing costs are starting to get more expensive. Traders who were able to access virtually free capital for years are now finding themselves sitting on costly margin positions that they’re potentially being forced to unwind,” 5x Dow & Founders award winner and portfolio manager Michael A. Gayed said recently.

5x Dow＆Founders奖奖得主和投资组合经理Michael A. Gayed表示：“今天的借贷成本开始变得更加昂贵。多年来能够获得几乎可以免费获得资金的交易者现在发现自己处于昂贵的利润率职位上，他们可能会被迫放松身心。”

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is facing growing pressure to cut interest rates. Consumer inflation data from the US CPI and PPI (Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index, respectively) support this push.

同时，美联储（美联储）面临降低利率的压力。来自美国CPI和PPI（分别消费者价格指数和生产商价格指数）的消费者通货膨胀数据支持这一推动力。

Lge observes that dovish signals in the US could partially offset this emerging hawkish stance from Japan.

LGE观察到，在美国，肮脏的信号可能会部分抵消日本新兴的鹰派立场。

“Since the US is a bigger market, the world may respond more toward the country’s monetary policies than Japan,” Linge added.

Linge补充说：“由于美国是一个更大的市场，因此与日本相比，世界可能对该国的货币政策做出更大的反应。”

The Fed cutting interest rates and Japan raising them could create a mixed global liquidity environment. This may spur volatility as investors readjust capital flows across borders.

美联储削减利率和日本提高它们可能会创造全球流动性环境。随着投资者的重新调整资本流动跨境流动，这可能会刺激波动。

Still, the BoJ decisively shifting hawkish and putting more emphasis on inflation over yen weakness is especially bad news for the yen carry trade.

尽管如此，Boj果断地转移了鹰派，并更加重视日元弱点的通货膨胀尤其是日元携带贸易的坏消息。

This could trigger a broader repricing of risk assets globally, cutting back on speculative capital flows and weakening the favorable liquidity backdrop that crypto markets have enjoyed in recent years.

这可能会触发全球风险资产的更广泛的重新定位，减少投机资本流量，并削弱加密市场近年来享受的有利的流动性背景。

Amidst these concerns, however, traders and analysts remain optimistic. Analysts at Deribit recently observed that markets went from capitulation to an aggressive bounce.

但是，在这些担忧中，交易者和分析师仍然乐观。 Deribit的分析师最近观察到，市场从投降到激进的反弹。

“Protective/Bear play BTC 75-78k Puts were dumped, and 85-100k Calls were lifted as BTC surged from 75-85k,” they wrote.

他们写道：“防护/熊游戏BTC 75-78K投票被抛弃，并在BTC从75-85k飙升时举起了85-100k的电话。”

Deribit data corroborates this observation, showing that the $100,000 call strike price was the most popular call option as of Monday morning, with the highest open interest. This suggests that traders are placing sizable bets on Bitcoin moving toward this psychological milestone.

deribit数据证实了这一观察结果，表明100,000美元的呼叫罢工价格是截至周一早上最受欢迎的呼叫选项，其开放率最高。这表明，交易者正在为比特币迈向这一心理里程碑的大量赌注。