日本的30年債券收益率激增了多年的高點

拿一杯咖啡，以了解金融市場的表現，這可能是更廣泛的全球風險轉變的開始

Good morning and welcome to the US morning crypto news briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for Monday, April 24.

早上好，歡迎來到美國早上加密新聞簡報 - 4月24日星期一加密最重要的發展中，您的必不可少。

Grab a coffee to see how financial markets are performing in what could be the start of a broader global risk-off shift, particularly as monetary tightening returns to center stage in Asia and the West.

拿一杯咖啡，看看金融市場的表現如何，這可能是全球風險轉變的開端，尤其是隨著貨幣收緊到亞洲和西方的中心舞台的收益。

Japan’s 30-Year Bond Yield Surges to Multi-Decade Highs

日本的30年債券收益率激增了多年的高點

Japan’s 30-year bond yield has surged to the highest level in 20 years, rising by 12 basis points (bps) to reach 2.345%.

日本的30年債券收益率在20年來上升到最高水平，上升了12個基點（BP），達到2.345％。

This pushes the yield on the benchmark bond to its strongest since January 2004, and it is deepening the stress in global fixed-income markets.

這將基準債券的收益率提高到了2004年1月以來的最強，它正在加深全球固定收益市場的壓力。

It bodes poorly for Bitcoin (BTC) and other risk-on assets, Agne Linge, director of growth at decentralized on-chain bank WeFi, believes.

認為，比特幣（BTC）和其他風險符合資產的體現很差，分散的鏈銀行WEFI的增長總監Agne Linge認為。

In an email to BeInCrypto, Linge said a major shift might be in the pipeline for risk assets. She cited macroeconomic trends in Japan as they pertain to the current surge in the 30-year bond yield.

Linge在給Beincrypto的一封電子郵件中說，可能會有重大轉變的風險資產。她引用了日本的宏觀經濟趨勢，因為它們與當前30年債券收益率的激增有關。

“With the bond yield jumping 2.345% to its highest level in 30 years, more risk-averse institutional investors might shun Bitcoin and other speculative assets,” Linge stated.

Linge說：“隨著債券收益率在30年來上升到其最高水平的2.345％，越來越多的機構投資者可能會避開比特幣和其他投機資產。”

As Japan’s long-term bond yields rise, it puts more pressure on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to respond with a possible interest rate hike. Analysts say this could come as early as the end of April.

隨著日本的長期債券收益率的增加，它給日本銀行（BOJ）帶來了更大的壓力，要求他們可能提高利率。分析人士說，這可能最早到4月底。

If the BoJ does tighten policy, it would be a big change for a central bank that has kept monetary conditions very loose for a long time.

如果棚屋加強了政策，那麼對於一家將貨幣條件一直很長時間保持寬鬆的中央銀行來說，這將是一個很大的變化。

“If this forecast plays out as expected, it might lead to dried-up liquidity in the traditional financial market. Since crypto thrives more on excess monetary liquidity, this could also influence the performance of the asset shortly,” she added.

她補充說：“如果這種預測按預期進行，它可能會導致傳統金融市場的流動性乾燥。由於加密貨幣的貨幣流動性超越了更多的貨幣流動性，這也可能會影響資產的績效。”

One key aspect is the yen carry trade, a strategy where global investors borrow yen at low rates to invest in assets with higher yields in other countries. This trade does well when Japanese rates are low, and international risk appetite is strong.

一個關鍵方面是日元攜帶貿易，這項戰略是全球投資者以低利率借用日元來投資於其他國家 /地區收益率更高的資產。當日本利率較低時，這項貿易很好，國際風險的食慾強勁。

What Does It Mean for Bitcoin?

這對比特幣意味著什麼？

But as Japanese yields go up, and there’s more talk of the BoJ raising interest rates, it becomes less appealing to borrow yen.

但是，隨著日本人產量的上升，關於展望提高的利率的談話也更多，借用日元的吸引力就變得不那麼吸引人了。

This could lead to less liquidity in markets around the world as the carry trade slows down, which could put downward pressure on crypto and other assets that rely on easy money.

隨著貨運貿易減慢，這可能導致全球市場流動性較小，這可能會給加密貨幣和其他依賴容易資金的資產帶來向下壓力。

Such an outcome would increase the potential for a downturn, which ties into BeInCrypto’s recent analysis of how Bitcoin’s price is at risk as the reverse yen carry trade unwinds.

這樣的結果將增加衰退的潛力，這與Beincrypto最近對比特幣價格如何面臨風險的分析有關，因為反向日元的貿易放鬆。

“The problem today is that those borrowing costs are starting to get more expensive. Traders who were able to access virtually free capital for years are now finding themselves sitting on costly margin positions that they’re potentially being forced to unwind,” 5x Dow & Founders award winner and portfolio manager Michael A. Gayed said recently.

5x Dow＆Founders獎獎得主和投資組合經理Michael A. Gayed表示：“今天的借貸成本開始變得更加昂貴。多年來能夠獲得幾乎可以免費獲得資金的交易者現在發現自己處於昂貴的利潤率職位上，他們可能會被迫放鬆身心。”

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is facing growing pressure to cut interest rates. Consumer inflation data from the US CPI and PPI (Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index, respectively) support this push.

同時，美聯儲（美聯儲）面臨降低利率的壓力。來自美國CPI和PPI（分別消費者價格指數和生產商價格指數）的消費者通貨膨脹數據支持這一推動力。

Lge observes that dovish signals in the US could partially offset this emerging hawkish stance from Japan.

LGE觀察到，在美國，骯髒的信號可能會部分抵消日本新興的鷹派立場。

“Since the US is a bigger market, the world may respond more toward the country’s monetary policies than Japan,” Linge added.

Linge補充說：“由於美國是一個更大的市場，因此與日本相比，世界可能對該國的貨幣政策做出更大的反應。”

The Fed cutting interest rates and Japan raising them could create a mixed global liquidity environment. This may spur volatility as investors readjust capital flows across borders.

美聯儲削減利率和日本提高它們可能會創造全球流動性環境。隨著投資者的重新調整資本流動跨境流動，這可能會刺激波動。

Still, the BoJ decisively shifting hawkish and putting more emphasis on inflation over yen weakness is especially bad news for the yen carry trade.

儘管如此，Boj果斷地轉移了鷹派，並更加重視日元弱點的通貨膨脹尤其是日元攜帶貿易的壞消息。

This could trigger a broader repricing of risk assets globally, cutting back on speculative capital flows and weakening the favorable liquidity backdrop that crypto markets have enjoyed in recent years.

這可能會觸發全球風險資產的更廣泛的重新定位，減少投機資本流量，並削弱加密市場近年來享受的有利的流動性背景。

Amidst these concerns, however, traders and analysts remain optimistic. Analysts at Deribit recently observed that markets went from capitulation to an aggressive bounce.

但是，在這些擔憂中，交易者和分析師仍然樂觀。 Deribit的分析師最近觀察到，市場從投降到激進的反彈。

“Protective/Bear play BTC 75-78k Puts were dumped, and 85-100k Calls were lifted as BTC surged from 75-85k,” they wrote.

他們寫道：“防護/熊遊戲BTC 75-78K投票被拋棄，並在BTC從75-85k飆升時舉起了85-100k的電話。”

Deribit data corroborates this observation, showing that the $100,000 call strike price was the most popular call option as of Monday morning, with the highest open interest. This suggests that traders are placing sizable bets on Bitcoin moving toward this psychological milestone.

deribit數據證實了這一觀察結果，表明100,000美元的呼叫罷工價格是截至週一早上最受歡迎的呼叫選項，其開放率最高。這表明，交易者正在為比特幣邁向這一心理里程碑的大量賭注。