比特幣價格於4月6日形成了死亡十字架

這個不祥的信號有時在主要市場逐漸縮減之前。最新的死亡十字架是在宏觀經濟不確定性越來越多的情況下出現的。

On April 6, Bitcoin price formed a death cross on a daily chart — a technical pattern where the 50-day moving average (MA) falls below the 200-day MA.

4月6日，比特幣價格在每日圖表上形成了一個死亡十字架，這是一種技術模式，其中50天移動平均線（MA）低於200天的MA。

Historically associated with trend reversals and long bearish trading periods, this ominous signal has sometimes preceded major market drawdowns.

從歷史上看，這種不祥的信號有時與趨勢逆轉和漫長的看跌交易期有關，有時在大型市場下降之前。

The latest death cross comes amid growing macroeconomic uncertainty. Equities are reeling from what appears to be the early stages of a tariff war, volatility is rising, and fear continues to dominate investor sentiment. For some investors, Bitcoin’s death cross could be the final blow to hopes of a near-term rally. Early signs of capitulation from short-term holders may already be emerging.

最新的死亡十字架是在宏觀經濟不確定性越來越多的情況下出現的。股票從似乎是關稅戰爭的早期階段，波動性上升，恐懼繼續主導投資者情緒。對於某些投資者而言，比特幣的死亡十字架可能是對近期集會的希望的最後打擊。短期持有人的早期屈服跡象可能已經出現。

Still, not everyone sees doom ahead.

不過，並非每個人都看到厄運。

Bitcoin death crosses history

比特幣死亡跨越歷史

By definition, a death cross confirms the end of a bullish phase. When the 50-day MA drops below the 200-day MA, it suggests recent price action has weakened relative to the longer-term trend. Its counterpart, the golden cross, occurs when the opposite happens — often heralding a new rally.

根據定義，死亡十字架證實了看漲階段的終結。當50天的MA下降到200天的MA以下時，這表明最近的價格行動相對於長期趨勢而減弱。當相反的情況發生時，它的對應物是金十字架（Golden Cross）發生的 - 常常預示著新的集會。

Since its inception, Bitcoin has experienced 10 such death crosses, with the 11th unfolding right now. Analysing their dates and durations gives a major insight: every bear market included a death cross, but not every death cross has led to a bear market. This distinction is key to understanding the current setup.

自成立以來，比特幣已經經歷了10個這樣的死亡十字架，目前正在展開第11個。分析他們的日期和持續時間提供了一個重大的見解：每個熊市都有一個死亡十字架，但並非每個死亡十字架都導致了熊市。這種區別是了解當前設置的關鍵。

BTC/USD 1-day death cross history (log). Source: Marie Poteriaieva, TradingView

BTC/1天死亡跨歷史（日誌）。資料來源：Marie Poteriaiva，TradingView

Indeed, there are two types of death crosses: those that happen during bear markets and the rest. The three death crosses that formed during the bear markets of 2014-2015, 2018, and 2022 were long and painful. They lasted for 9 to 13 months and saw drawdowns between 55% and 68% from the day of the cross to the cycle bottom.

實際上，死亡十字架有兩種類型：在熊市和其他情況下發生的那些。在2014 - 2015年，2018年和2022年熊市中形成的三個死亡雜交漫長而痛苦。他們持續了9到13個月，從十字架到週期底部的那天，下降了55％至68％。

The remaining seven were far less severe. They lasted from 1.5 months to 3.5 months and saw Bitcoin decline anywhere from 27% to nothing at all. In many cases, these signals marked local bottoms and were followed by renewed rallies.

其餘的七個遠不那麼嚴重。他們持續了1.5個月到3.5個月，比特幣從27％下降到根本沒有。在許多情況下，這些信號標誌著本地底部，隨後是新的集會。

This brings us to the critical question: Is Bitcoin already in a bear market, or is this another bear trap?

這使我們提出了一個關鍵的問題：比特幣已經在熊市中了，還是這是另一個熊陷阱？

A bearish signal?

看跌信號？

If Bitcoin is indeed in bear territory, as CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju believes, the current death cross could signal 6 to 12 more months of downward price action. This outlook aligns with his observations of the difference between the current market cap and the realized cap (average cost basis for each wallet x amount of BTC held).

正如CryptoQuant首席執行官Ki Young Ju所相信的那樣，如果比特幣確實處於熊領土上，那麼當前的死亡十字架可能會向下降價格下跌6到12個月。這種前景與他對當前市場上限和已實現的上限之間差異的觀察（每個錢包x持有的平均成本基礎）之間的觀察一致。

Current data clearly points to the latter, Ki Young Ju adds.

當前的數據清楚地表明了後者，Ki Young Ju補充說。

BTC growth rate difference. Source: CryptoQuant

BTC增長率差異。資料來源：加密

Other market participants disregard the presence of the death cross. Crypto analyst Mister Crypto argued that the current death cross is a setup for a rally rather than a slide. “The trap is set again. This will be the most hated rally of 2025!” he posted alongside a chart showing previous false signals of this cycle.

其他市場參與者無視死亡十字架的存在。加密分析師Crypto先生認為，當前的死亡十字架是集會而不是幻燈片的設置。 “陷阱再次設置。這將是2025年最討厭的集會！”他與圖表旁邊張貼，顯示了此週期的先前虛假信號。

Bitcoin death cross during the bull market. Source: Mister Crypto

牛市比特幣死亡交叉。資料來源：加密貨幣先生

CoinShares head of research James Butterfill also played down the signal’s significance. As he put it,

Coinshares Research James Butterfill的負責人也淡化了信號的意義。正如他所說的

Butterfill’s data shows that, on average, Bitcoin prices are only slightly lower one month after a death cross (-3.2%) and often higher three months out.

Butterfill的數據表明，平均而言，比特幣價格僅在死亡十字架（-3.2％）後一個月稍微降低，通常三個月以上。

Related: Trump tariffs reignite idea that Bitcoin could outlast US dollar

相關：特朗普關稅重新點燃了比特幣可能超過美元的想法

Interestingly, Bitcoin isn't the only asset flashing warning signs. The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 are both on the verge of forming their own death crosses, while individual tech stocks — including Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Alphabet — have already triggered them or are close to doing so.

有趣的是，比特幣並不是唯一的閃爍警告標誌的資產。 NASDAQ 100和S＆P 500都處於形成自己的死亡十字架的邊緣，而包括Apple，Microsoft，Nvidia和Alphabet在內的個人技術股已經觸發了它們或接近這樣做。

Bitcoin’s recent move is part of a larger market reset, for better or for worse. At the moment, however, it leans more toward the "worse" side: as some analysts point out, what’s bad for the Nasdaq tends to be bad for Bitcoin, too. Unless, of course, Bitcoin fully claims its role as digital gold.This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

比特幣最近的舉動是更大的市場重置的一部分，無論好壞。然而，目前，它更傾向於“更糟糕的”一面：正如一些分析師指出的那樣，對納斯達克來說，對比特幣也有害。當然，除非比特幣完全聲稱其作為數字黃金的作用，否則本文不包含投資建議或建議。每個投資和交易舉動都涉及風險，讀者在做出決定時應進行自己的研究。