比特币价格于4月6日形成了死亡十字架

这个不祥的信号有时在主要市场逐渐缩减之前。最新的死亡十字架是在宏观经济不确定性越来越多的情况下出现的。

On April 6, Bitcoin price formed a death cross on a daily chart — a technical pattern where the 50-day moving average (MA) falls below the 200-day MA.

4月6日，比特币价格在每日图表上形成了一个死亡十字架，这是一种技术模式，其中50天移动平均线（MA）低于200天的MA。

Historically associated with trend reversals and long bearish trading periods, this ominous signal has sometimes preceded major market drawdowns.

从历史上看，这种不祥的信号有时与趋势逆转和漫长的看跌交易期有关，有时在大型市场下降之前。

The latest death cross comes amid growing macroeconomic uncertainty. Equities are reeling from what appears to be the early stages of a tariff war, volatility is rising, and fear continues to dominate investor sentiment. For some investors, Bitcoin’s death cross could be the final blow to hopes of a near-term rally. Early signs of capitulation from short-term holders may already be emerging.

最新的死亡十字架是在宏观经济不确定性越来越多的情况下出现的。股票从似乎是关税战争的早期阶段，波动性上升，恐惧继续主导投资者情绪。对于某些投资者而言，比特币的死亡十字架可能是对近期集会的希望的最后打击。短期持有人的早期屈服迹象可能已经出现。

Still, not everyone sees doom ahead.

不过，并非每个人都看到厄运。

Bitcoin death crosses history

比特币死亡跨越历史

By definition, a death cross confirms the end of a bullish phase. When the 50-day MA drops below the 200-day MA, it suggests recent price action has weakened relative to the longer-term trend. Its counterpart, the golden cross, occurs when the opposite happens — often heralding a new rally.

根据定义，死亡十字架证实了看涨阶段的终结。当50天的MA下降到200天的MA以下时，这表明最近的价格行动相对于长期趋势而减弱。当相反的情况发生时，它的对应物是金十字架（Golden Cross）发生的 - 常常预示着新的集会。

Since its inception, Bitcoin has experienced 10 such death crosses, with the 11th unfolding right now. Analysing their dates and durations gives a major insight: every bear market included a death cross, but not every death cross has led to a bear market. This distinction is key to understanding the current setup.

自成立以来，比特币已经经历了10个这样的死亡十字架，目前正在展开第11个。分析他们的日期和持续时间提供了一个重大的见解：每个熊市都有一个死亡十字架，但并非每个死亡十字架都导致了熊市。这种区别是了解当前设置的关键。

BTC/USD 1-day death cross history (log). Source: Marie Poteriaieva, TradingView

BTC/1天死亡跨历史（日志）。资料来源：Marie Poteriaiva，TradingView

Indeed, there are two types of death crosses: those that happen during bear markets and the rest. The three death crosses that formed during the bear markets of 2014-2015, 2018, and 2022 were long and painful. They lasted for 9 to 13 months and saw drawdowns between 55% and 68% from the day of the cross to the cycle bottom.

实际上，死亡十字架有两种类型：在熊市和其他情况下发生的那些。在2014 - 2015年，2018年和2022年熊市中形成的三个死亡杂交漫长而痛苦。他们持续了9到13个月，从十字架到周期底部的那天，下降了55％至68％。

The remaining seven were far less severe. They lasted from 1.5 months to 3.5 months and saw Bitcoin decline anywhere from 27% to nothing at all. In many cases, these signals marked local bottoms and were followed by renewed rallies.

其余的七个远不那么严重。他们持续了1.5个月到3.5个月，比特币从27％下降到根本没有。在许多情况下，这些信号标志着本地底部，随后是新的集会。

This brings us to the critical question: Is Bitcoin already in a bear market, or is this another bear trap?

这使我们提出了一个关键的问题：比特币已经在熊市中了，还是这是另一个熊陷阱？

A bearish signal?

看跌信号？

If Bitcoin is indeed in bear territory, as CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju believes, the current death cross could signal 6 to 12 more months of downward price action. This outlook aligns with his observations of the difference between the current market cap and the realized cap (average cost basis for each wallet x amount of BTC held).

正如CryptoQuant首席执行官Ki Young Ju所相信的那样，如果比特币确实处于熊领土上，那么当前的死亡十字架可能会向下降价格下跌6到12个月。这种前景与他对当前市场上限和已实现的上限之间差异的观察（每个钱包x持有的平均成本基础）之间的观察一致。

Current data clearly points to the latter, Ki Young Ju adds.

当前的数据清楚地表明了后者，Ki Young Ju补充说。

BTC growth rate difference. Source: CryptoQuant

BTC增长率差异。资料来源：加密

Other market participants disregard the presence of the death cross. Crypto analyst Mister Crypto argued that the current death cross is a setup for a rally rather than a slide. “The trap is set again. This will be the most hated rally of 2025!” he posted alongside a chart showing previous false signals of this cycle.

其他市场参与者无视死亡十字架的存在。加密分析师Crypto先生认为，当前的死亡十字架是集会而不是幻灯片的设置。 “陷阱再次设置。这将是2025年最讨厌的集会！”他与图表旁边张贴，显示了此周期的先前虚假信号。

Bitcoin death cross during the bull market. Source: Mister Crypto

牛市比特币死亡交叉。资料来源：加密货币先生

CoinShares head of research James Butterfill also played down the signal’s significance. As he put it,

Coinshares Research James Butterfill的负责人也淡化了信号的意义。正如他所说的

Butterfill’s data shows that, on average, Bitcoin prices are only slightly lower one month after a death cross (-3.2%) and often higher three months out.

Butterfill的数据表明，平均而言，比特币价格仅在死亡十字架（-3.2％）后一个月稍微降低，通常三个月以上。

Related: Trump tariffs reignite idea that Bitcoin could outlast US dollar

相关：特朗普关税重新点燃了比特币可能超过美元的想法

Interestingly, Bitcoin isn't the only asset flashing warning signs. The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 are both on the verge of forming their own death crosses, while individual tech stocks — including Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Alphabet — have already triggered them or are close to doing so.

有趣的是，比特币并不是唯一的闪烁警告标志的资产。 NASDAQ 100和S＆P 500都处于形成自己的死亡十字架的边缘，而包括Apple，Microsoft，Nvidia和Alphabet在内的个人技术股已经触发了它们或接近这样做。

Bitcoin’s recent move is part of a larger market reset, for better or for worse. At the moment, however, it leans more toward the "worse" side: as some analysts point out, what’s bad for the Nasdaq tends to be bad for Bitcoin, too. Unless, of course, Bitcoin fully claims its role as digital gold.This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

比特币最近的举动是更大的市场重置的一部分，无论好坏。然而，目前，它更倾向于“更糟糕的”一面：正如一些分析师指出的那样，对纳斯达克来说，对比特币也有害。当然，除非比特币完全声称其作为数字黄金的作用，否则本文不包含投资建议或建议。每个投资和交易举动都涉及风险，读者在做出决定时应进行自己的研究。