由于债券收益率上升，全球股市下跌；健康保险公司、特斯拉领头羊下跌

今天上午股市暴跌，标准普尔 500 指数、道琼斯工业指数和纳斯达克 100 指数等主要指数跌至 1-1/2 周低点。债券收益率上升，尤其是触及四个月高点的10年期国债收益率，正在打压股市。市场对美联储降息的可能性不太乐观，预计下次 FOMC 会议降息的可能性只有 7%。尽管一些海外市场涨跌互现，欧洲斯托克 50 指数和上证综指收盘走低，但日经指数小幅走高。

Global Equity Markets Experience Moderate Decline; Higher Bond Yields Impact Stocks

全球股市温和下跌；较高的债券收益率影响股票

The S&P 500 Index (SPY) opened lower this morning, losing 1.02% of its value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) followed a similar trend, falling by 1.09%, while the Nasdaq 100 Index (QQQ) experienced a more pronounced decline of 1.47%.

标准普尔 500 指数 (SPY) 今天上午开盘走低，下跌 1.02%。道琼斯工业平均指数（DIA）也出现类似趋势，下跌 1.09%，而纳斯达克 100 指数（QQQ）跌幅更为明显，下跌 1.47%。

This retreat marks a slide to 1-1/2 week lows for all three major indices. Higher bond yields have significantly influenced the decline in stock prices. Today, the 10-year Treasury note (T-note) yield reached its highest point in four months. This negative carryover stemmed from Monday's strong performance by the US Mar ISM Manufacturing Index, which expanded at its fastest pace in 1-1/2 years. This economic indicator has dampened the outlook for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

此次回撤标志着所有三大指数均跌至 1-1/2 周低点。债券收益率上升对股价下跌产生了重大影响。今天，10年期国债收益率达到四个月来的最高点。这种负结转源于周一美国3月ISM制造业指数的强劲表现，该指数以1-1/2年来最快的速度扩张。这一经济指标削弱了美联储（Fed）潜在降息的前景。

Currently, the markets estimate a 7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting scheduled for April 30th - May 1st. However, the probability rises to 60% for the subsequent meeting on June 11th - 12th.

目前，市场预计 4 月 30 日至 5 月 1 日举行的下一次 FOMC 会议降息 25 个基点的可能性为 7%。然而，6 月 11 日至 12 日举行的后续会议的概率上升至 60%。

Overseas Markets Exhibit Mixed Performance

海外市场表现参差不齐

European stock markets presented a mixed picture today. The Euro Stoxx 50 Index fell by 0.78%, retreating from its 23-year high. In Asia, China's Shanghai Composite Index closed marginally lower by 0.08%. Conversely, Japan's Nikkei Stock Index rose slightly, gaining 0.09%.

今天欧洲股市的情况好坏参半。欧洲斯托克 50 指数下跌 0.78%，从 23 年高点回落。在亚洲，中国上证综合指数收盘小幅下跌 0.08%。相反，日本日经指数小幅上涨，上涨0.09%。

Interest Rates Continue to Rise

利率继续上升

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM24) experienced a decline of 13 ticks this morning. However, the 10-year T-note yield rose by 7.8 basis points to 4.387%. T-note prices fell to their lowest level in two weeks for nearest-futures contracts. The 10-year T-note yield, meanwhile, reached a four-month high of 4.403%.

6 月 10 年期国债 (ZNM24) 今天上午下跌了 13 个基点。然而，10年期国债收益率上升7.8个基点至4.387%。最近期货合约的国债价格跌至两周来的最低水平。与此同时，10年期国债收益率达到4.403%的四个月高点。

T-notes continue to face pressure due to carryover from Monday's strong Mar ISM Manufacturing Index and Mar ISM Prices Paid Sub-Index readings, both of which reached 1-1/2 year highs. These hawkish economic indicators suggest that the Fed may postpone the commencement of rate cuts. Additionally, rising inflation expectations are further weighing on T-note prices, as today's 10-year breakeven inflation rate reached its highest level in 1-1/2 weeks, climbing to 2.372%.

由于周一强劲的 3 月 ISM 制造业指数和 3 月 ISM 支付价格分类指数数据的结转，国债继续面临压力，这两项指数均创 1-1/2 年高点。这些鹰派的经济指标表明美联储可能会推迟开始降息。此外，不断上升的通胀预期进一步打压国债价格，今天的10年期盈亏平衡通胀率达到1-1/2周以来的最高水平，攀升至2.372%。

European government bond yields also demonstrated an upward trend. The 10-year German Bund yield climbed to a 1-1/2 week high of 2.425%, marking an increase of 12.5 basis points to stand at 2.422%. Similarly, the 10-year UK Gilt yield rose to a two-week high of 4.089%, representing a gain of 15.5 basis points to reach 4.088%.

欧洲政府债券收益率也呈现上升趋势。 10 年期德国国债收益率攀升至 1-1/2 周高点 2.425%，上涨 12.5 个基点至 2.422%。同样，英国10年期国债收益率升至两周高点4.089%，上涨15.5个基点至4.088%。

Revised Economic Data and Inflation Expectations in the Eurozone

欧元区修正后的经济数据和通胀预期

The Eurozone Mar S&P Manufacturing PMI was revised upward by 0.4 points to 46.1, from its previously reported value of 45.7. However, inflation expectations in the region showed mixed signals. ECB Feb 1-year inflation expectations declined from 3.3% in January to 3.1%, marking the lowest level in two years. On the other hand, Feb 3-year inflation expectations remained unchanged at 2.5%, surpassing expectations of a decrease to 2.4%.

欧元区 3 月标准普尔制造业 PMI 上调 0.4 点至 46.1，较之前公布的 45.7 值上调 0.4 点。然而，该地区的通胀预期显示出复杂的信号。欧洲央行2月份1年期通胀预期从1月份的3.3%下降至3.1%，创下两年来的最低水平。另一方面，2 月 3 年通胀预期维持在 2.5%不变，超出预期下降至 2.4%。

German Mar CPI (EU harmonized) rose by 0.6% on a month-over-month basis and 2.3% on a year-over-year basis, falling short of expectations of 0.7% and 2.4%, respectively.

德国3月CPI（欧盟统一）环比上涨0.6%，同比上涨2.3%，分别低于预期的0.7%和2.4%。

Notable Movers in US Stock Market

美国股市的显着推动者

Health insurance companies faced significant pressure today after US regulators failed to increase payments for private Medicare plans as anticipated. Humana (HUM), with its higher exposure to this segment, led the decline in the S&P 500, falling by more than 10%. Other major insurers, including CVS Health (CVS) and UnitedHealth Group (UNH), also suffered losses of over 6% and 5%, respectively, contributing to the decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

由于美国监管机构未能按预期增加私人医疗保险计划的付款，健康保险公司今天面临巨大压力。 Humana (HUM) 对该细分市场的敞口较高，引领标准普尔 500 指数下跌，跌幅超过 10%。 CVS Health (CVS) 和 UnitedHealth Group (UNH) 等其他主要保险公司的损失也分别超过 6% 和 5%，导致道琼斯工业平均指数下跌。

PVH Corp (PVH) witnessed a drop of over 22% after announcing a projected 6-7% decline in 2025 revenue, contrasting with last year's 2% growth. Verve Therapeutics (VERV) experienced a sharp decline of more than 31% following safety concerns raised about its gene-editing treatment for high cholesterol, leading to a pause in patient enrollment.

PVH Corp (PVH) 宣布 2025 年收入预计下降 6-7%，与去年 2% 的增长形成鲜明对比，股价下跌超过 22%。 Verve Therapeutics (VERV) 的高胆固醇基因编辑疗法引发安全担忧，导致患者入组暂停，股价急剧下跌 31% 以上。

Tesla (TSLA) led the Nasdaq 100 lower with a loss of over 5%. The automaker reported Q1 vehicle deliveries of 386,810, significantly below the consensus estimate of 449,080. Autodesk (ADSK) also fell by over 3% after it delayed filing its 10-K annual report due to an internal investigation into its cash flow and margin practices.

特斯拉 (TSLA) 领跌纳斯达克 100 指数，跌幅超过 5%。该汽车制造商公布第一季度汽车交付量为 386,810 辆，远低于市场普遍预期的 449,080 辆。 Autodesk (ADSK) 由于对其现金流和利润率做法进行内部调查而推迟提交 10-K 年度报告，股价也下跌了 3% 以上。

Rising 10-year T-note yields, a bearish factor for housing demand, impacted homebuilding stocks today. As a result, Lennar (LEN), PulteGroup (PHM), DR Horton (DHI), and Toll Brothers (TOL) all lost more than 4% in value.

十年期国债收益率上升是住房需求的利空因素，影响了今天的房屋建筑股。结果，Lennar (LEN)、PulteGroup (PHM)、DR Horton (DHI) 和 Toll Brothers (TOL) 的市值均下跌超过 4%。

Cryptocurrency-linked companies retreated in today's trading session, as the price of Bitcoin dropped by more than 6% to a one-week low. Coinbase Global (COIN), MicroStrategy (MSTR), Marathon Digital (MARA), and Riot Platforms (RIOT) each fell by over 5%.

加密货币相关公司在今天的交易时段出现回落，比特币价格下跌超过 6% 至一周低点。 Coinbase Global (COIN)、MicroStrategy (MSTR)、Marathon Digital (MARA) 和 Riot Platform (RIOT) 均下跌超过 5%。

Biomea Fusion (BMEA) experienced a decline of over 15% after JPMorgan Chase downgraded the stock to neutral from overweight, citing preliminary data from a diabetes trial.

摩根大通援引一项糖尿病试验的初步数据，将该股评级从增持下调至中性后，Biomea Fusion (BMEA) 股价下跌超过 15%。

Conversely, energy stocks and energy service providers gained ground today, supported by a rise in the price of WTI crude oil by over 1% to a 5-1/4 month high. Occidental Petroleum (OXY) led the gainers in the S&P 500 with an increase of more than 2%. Chevron (CVX) also made gains, leading the Dow Jones Industrial Average with an increase of more than 1%. Additionally, Exxon Mobil (XOM), Phillips 66 (PSX), ConocoPhillips (COP), and Valero Energy (VLO) all rose by over 1%.

相反，在 WTI 原油价格上涨超过 1% 至 5-1/4 个月高点的支撑下，能源股和能源服务提供商今天上涨。西方石油公司 (OXY) 在标准普尔 500 指数中领涨，涨幅超过 2%。雪佛龙 (CVX) 也有所上涨，涨幅超过 1%，领先道琼斯工业平均指数。此外，埃克森美孚 (XOM)、Phillips 66 (PSX)、康菲石油公司 (COP) 和瓦莱罗能源 (VLO) 均上涨超过 1%。

Roivant Sciences Ltd (ROIV) climbed by over 6% after its board authorized a share repurchase program worth up to $1.5 billion. Olema Pharmaceuticals (OLMA) gained over 1% after Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a buy recommendation and a price target of $24.

Roivant Sciences Ltd (ROIV) 董事会批准价值高达 15 亿美元的股票回购计划后，该公司股价上涨超过 6%。在高盛首次给予买入建议和 24 美元目标价后，Olema Pharmaceuticals (OLMA) 上涨超过 1%。

McCormick & Co (MKC) and Estee Lauder (EL) also experienced gains of nearly 1% and over 1%, respectively, following upgrades by Argus Research and Citigroup.

在阿格斯研究公司和花旗集团上调评级后，味好美公司 (MKC) 和雅诗兰黛公司 (EL) 的涨幅也分别接近 1% 和超过 1%。

Mining stocks gained today, benefiting from a record high in gold prices and 1-1/2 week highs in copper and silver prices. Freeport McMoRan (FCX), Newmont (NEM), and Southern Copper (SCCO) all increased by over 0.5%.

矿业股今天上涨，受益于金价创历史新高以及铜价和银价创1-1/2周高点。自由港麦克莫兰 (FCX)、纽蒙特 (NEM) 和南方铜业 (SCCO) 均上涨超过 0.5%。

Earnings Reports Expected on April 2nd, 2024

预计将于 2024 年 4 月 2 日发布收益报告

Several companies are expected to release their earnings reports on April 2nd, 2024, including:

预计多家公司将于 2024 年 4 月 2 日发布收益报告，其中包括：

• Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM)
• Dave & Buster's Entertainment (PLAY)
• DZS Inc (DZSI)
• Paychex Inc (PAYX)

Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM)Dave & Buster's Entertainment (PLAY)DZS Inc (DZSI)Paychex Inc (PAYX)