伊朗和以色列紧张局势升级，全球市场紧张不安

由于伊朗对以色列的袭击引发了对地缘政治紧张局势升级的担忧，全球金融市场面临不确定性。投资者预计波动性将加剧，油价上涨的风险、可能涌向避险资产以及股市进一步下跌的风险。市场反应取决于以色列的反应和报复周期的可能性，而原油是市场情绪的晴雨表。

Global Markets Face Geopolitical Jitters Amid Iran-Israel Tensions

伊朗和以色列紧张局势导致全球市场面临地缘政治紧张

As markets gear up for the week ahead, geopolitical uncertainties cast a long shadow over investor sentiment, with the unprecedented weekend strike by Iran on Israel threatening to trigger a cycle of retaliation and escalate tensions in the Middle East.

随着市场为未来一周做好准备，地缘政治的不确定性给投资者情绪蒙上了长长的阴影，周末伊朗对以色列发动前所未有的袭击，有可能引发一轮报复循环，并加剧中东紧张局势。

The conflict, widely anticipated following Hamas' attacks on Israel in October, has heightened fears of Iran's involvement. As the conflict intensifies, experts predict a surge in oil prices, potentially exceeding $100 per barrel, alongside increased demand for safe-haven assets like Treasuries, gold, and the US dollar. Stock markets are expected to suffer further losses amid heightened risk aversion.

哈马斯十月份袭击以色列后，人们普遍预计这场冲突加剧了人们对伊朗卷入其中的担忧。随着冲突加剧，专家预测油价将飙升，可能突破每桶 100 美元，同时对国债、黄金和美元等避险资产的需求也会增加。由于避险情绪加剧，预计股市将进一步下跌。

Despite Friday's flight to safety in anticipation of the strike, Iran's statement that the matter could be considered concluded and reports of President Biden assuring Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu that the US would not support an Israeli counterattack have provided some solace.

尽管周五因预计袭击而逃往安全地带，但伊朗声明称此事已结束，而且有报道称拜登总统向以色列总理内塔尼亚胡保证美国不会支持以色列的反击，这些都提供了一些安慰。

"Investors instinctively seek refuge in safe-haven assets during such moments," said Patrick Armstrong, Chief Investment Officer at Plurimi Wealth LLP. "Market reactions will largely hinge on Israel's response. If Israel refrains from escalation, it could present an opportunity to acquire riskier assets at lower prices."

Plurimi Wealth LLP 首席投资官帕特里克·阿姆斯特朗 (Patrick Armstrong) 表示：“在这种时刻，投资者本能地寻求避险资产的庇护。” “市场反应将在很大程度上取决于以色列的反应。如果以色列避免升级，可能会提供一个以较低价格收购风险较高资产的机会。”

Bitcoin, a digital asset often considered a barometer of market sentiment, plunged almost 9% in the wake of the attacks on Saturday. However, it rebounded on Sunday, trading near $64,000. Equity markets in Saudi Arabia and Qatar posted moderate losses in thin trading, while Israel's equity benchmark oscillated between gains and losses before closing with a small advance.

比特币这种通常被视为市场情绪晴雨表的数字资产，在周六的袭击事件发生后暴跌近 9%。然而，周日反弹，交易价格接近 64,000 美元。沙特阿拉伯和卡塔尔股市在交投清淡中小幅下跌，而以色列股市基准则在涨跌之间振荡，最终收盘小幅上涨。

"Middle Eastern markets commenced trading with relative tranquility following Iran's attack, perceived as a calculated response rather than an effort at escalation," said Emre Akcakmak, a senior consultant at East Capital in Dubai. "Nevertheless, the market impact could extend beyond the region due to knock-on effects on oil and energy prices, potentially influencing the global inflation outlook."

迪拜East Capital高级顾问埃姆雷·阿卡马克(Emre Akcakmak)表示，“伊朗袭击后，中东市场开始交易相对平静，这被认为是经过深思熟虑的反应，而不是升级的努力。” “尽管如此，由于石油和能源价格的连锁反应，市场影响可能会超出该地区，从而可能影响全球通胀前景。”

Investors now face the daunting task of assessing the likelihood of continued strikes and counter-strikes, with many seeking guidance from oil prices. Brent crude, the international benchmark, has surged almost 20% this year, trading above $90 per barrel.

投资者现在面临着评估持续罢工和反击的可能性的艰巨任务，许多人寻求油价的指导。国际基准布伦特原油今年已上涨近 20%，交易价格超过每桶 90 美元。

While the current conflict has not directly impacted production, Red Sea attacks by Iran-backed Houthi rebels have disrupted shipping. Traders fear a wider conflict could severely disrupt tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for oil exports from the Persian Gulf.

虽然当前的冲突没有直接影响生产，但伊朗支持的胡塞叛乱分子的红海袭击已经扰乱了航运。交易商担心，更广泛的冲突可能会严重扰乱通过霍尔木兹海峡的油轮运输，霍尔木兹海峡是波斯湾石油出口的咽喉要道。

Concerns about regional instability have reverberated through global markets. The S&P 500 Index recently suffered its steepest weekly decline since October, driven by higher-than-anticipated inflation and underwhelming bank earnings.

对地区不稳定的担忧在全球市场引起反响。受高于预期的通胀和银行盈利不佳的推动，标准普尔 500 指数最近遭遇了自 10 月份以来最大幅度的单周跌幅。

Bond markets face the prospect of energy price increases fueling inflation fears. While Treasuries typically rise in times of uncertainty, the threat of sustained high interest rates could limit their gains. US equity and bond futures are scheduled to open on Sunday at 6 p.m. New York time.

债券市场面临能源价格上涨加剧通胀担忧的前景。虽然国债通常会在不确定时期上涨，但持续高利率的威胁可能会限制其涨幅。美国股票和债券期货定于周日下午 6 点开盘。纽约时间。

Meanwhile, gold has embarked on a relentless climb, gaining 13% this year to reach a record above $2,400 per ounce. Investors have also flocked to the stability of the US dollar, with an index of the currency rising 1.3% last week, marking its best performance since late 2022.

与此同时，金价开始持续攀升，今年上涨了 13%，达到每盎司 2,400 美元以上的历史新高。投资者也纷纷涌向美元的稳定，上周美元指数上涨1.3%，创下2022年底以来的最佳表现。

Market experts and analysts weigh in on the unfolding events:

市场专家和分析师对正在发生的事件发表了看法：

• Erik Meyersson, Chief Emerging Markets Strategist at SEB: "Our oil analysts perceive limited signs of a geopolitical risk premium in oil prices thus far. This likely reflects market perceptions of low escalation risks to date. This equilibrium could be tested if Iran and Israel continue to engage in hostilities."
• Gonzalo Lardies, Senior Equities Fund Manager at Andbank: "A new era of uncertainty is unfolding, but markets partially priced this scenario on Friday. If the situation does not escalate further, the impact should be manageable. The risk lies in contagion effects within the region."
• Alfonso Benito, Chief Investment Officer at Dunas Capital: "Given Israel's robust air defense, I do not anticipate significant market declines. Defense stocks, oil, and gas are likely to rise, while airlines may face headwinds. Bonds will advance, but likely not excessively. Investors may capitalize on this opportunity to partially rectify recent gains."
• Joachim Klement, a Strategist at Liberum: "The response will largely hinge on Israel's actions today and the US's ability to restrain Benjamin Netanyahu. Geopolitics will overshadow central bank actions and strong US economic data in stock markets over the coming days. Hence, we anticipate a market pause until clarity emerges on the Iran-Israel situation. A shooting war between the two nations would prolong the market uncertainty."
• Mark Matthews, Strategist at Bank Julius Baer in Singapore: "Iran's advance warning of the attack and military analysts' assessment that it was executed with minimal casualties suggest a measured approach. I do not foresee a precipitous decline in Fed rate expectations or a surge in oil prices. Iran and the US aim to de-escalate the situation. Israel's response and Iran's subsequent reaction will be crucial. De-escalatory strikes from both sides could potentially end the conflict."
• Geoff Yu, Senior Strategist for EMEA Markets at BNY Mellon in London: "Even after recent buying following CPI data, there is scope for further dollar accumulation. Clients remain overweight the euro, Canadian dollar, and high-carry currencies like the Mexican peso. We will monitor these currencies for signs of rotation in favor of the greenback."
• Neil Shearing, Chief Economist at Capital Economics in London: "Events in the Middle East will likely contribute to the Fed's cautious approach to interest rate cuts, but it is unlikely to completely deter them. We expect the first cut in September. We also anticipate rate cuts from the ECB and BOE in June, assuming energy prices do not spike significantly in the coming weeks."

As the situation continues to evolve, investors worldwide will monitor geopolitical developments with bated breath. The potential for a cycle of retaliation could have far-reaching implications for global markets, with oil prices, safe-haven assets, and risk sentiment likely to bear the brunt of the impact.

SEB首席新兴市场策略师埃里克·迈耶森(Erik Meyersson)表示：“迄今为止，我们的石油分析师认为油价出现地缘政治风险溢价的迹象有限。这可能反映了市场迄今为止对升级风险较低的看法。如果伊朗和以色列继续保持这种平衡，这种平衡可能会受到考验。”安德银行高级股票基金经理贡萨洛·拉迪斯（Gonzalo Lardies）表示：“一个充满不确定性的新时代正在展开，但周五市场已经部分消化了这种情况，如果局势没有进一步升级，那么影响的风险应该是可控的。 Dunas Capital 首席投资官阿方索·贝尼托 (Alfonso Benito) 表示：“鉴于以色列强大的防空能力，我预计国防股、石油和天然气市场不会出现大幅下跌，而航空公司可能会面临下跌。债券将会上涨，但可能不会过度上涨。”Liberum 策略师约阿希姆·克莱门特 (Joachim Klement) 表示：“反应将在很大程度上取决于以色列今天的行动以及美国遏制本杰明·内塔尼亚胡的能力。 。未来几天，地缘政治将掩盖央行行动和股市强劲的美国经济数据。因此，我们预计市场将暂停，直到伊朗-以色列局势明朗为止。两国之间的激烈战争将延长市场的不确定性。”新加坡瑞士宝盛银行策略师马克·马修斯（Mark Matthews）表示：“伊朗对这次袭击发出了预先警告，而且军事分析人士认为这次袭击是在伤亡最小的情况下进行的，这表明伊朗采取了谨慎的做法。我预计美联储利率预期不会急剧下降，油价也不会飙升。伊朗和美国的目标是缓和局势。以色列的反应和伊朗随后的反应将至关重要。双方缓和的罢工可能会结束冲突。” 纽约梅隆银行驻伦敦的欧洲、中东和非洲市场高级策略师 Geoff Yu 表示：“即使最近根据 CPI 数据进行买盘，美元仍有进一步积累的空间。客户仍然增持欧元、加元和墨西哥比索等高利差货币。我们将监控这些货币是否有利于美元的轮动迹象。” 伦敦凯投宏观首席经济学家尼尔·希林（Neil Shearing）：“中东发生的事件可能会促使美联储对降息采取谨慎态度，但可能性不大来彻底震慑他们。我们预计首次降息将在 9 月份进行。假设能源价格在未来几周内不会大幅上涨，我们还预计欧洲央行和英国央行将在 6 月份降息。可能对全球市场产生深远影响，油价、避险资产和风险情绪可能首当其冲。