伊朗和以色列緊張局勢升級，全球市場緊張不安

由於伊朗對以色列的襲擊引發了對地緣政治緊張局勢升級的擔憂，全球金融市場面臨不確定性。投資人預期波動性將加劇，油價上漲的風險、可能湧向避險資產以及股市進一步下跌的風險。市場反應取決於以色列的反應和報復週期的可能性，而原油是市場情緒的晴雨表。

Global Markets Face Geopolitical Jitters Amid Iran-Israel Tensions

伊朗和以色列緊張局勢導致全球市場面臨地緣政治緊張

As markets gear up for the week ahead, geopolitical uncertainties cast a long shadow over investor sentiment, with the unprecedented weekend strike by Iran on Israel threatening to trigger a cycle of retaliation and escalate tensions in the Middle East.

隨著市場為未來一周做好準備，地緣政治的不確定性給投資者情緒蒙上了長長的陰影，週末伊朗對以色列發動前所未有的襲擊，有可能引發一輪報復循環，並加劇中東緊張局勢。

The conflict, widely anticipated following Hamas' attacks on Israel in October, has heightened fears of Iran's involvement. As the conflict intensifies, experts predict a surge in oil prices, potentially exceeding $100 per barrel, alongside increased demand for safe-haven assets like Treasuries, gold, and the US dollar. Stock markets are expected to suffer further losses amid heightened risk aversion.

哈馬斯十月份襲擊以色列後，人們普遍預期這場衝突加劇了人們對伊朗捲入其中的擔憂。隨著衝突加劇，專家預測油價將飆升，可能突破每桶 100 美元，同時對國債、黃金和美元等避險資產的需求也會增加。由於避險情緒加劇，預計股市將進一步下跌。

Despite Friday's flight to safety in anticipation of the strike, Iran's statement that the matter could be considered concluded and reports of President Biden assuring Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu that the US would not support an Israeli counterattack have provided some solace.

儘管週五因預計襲擊而逃往安全地帶，但伊朗聲明稱此事已結束，而且有報道稱拜登總統向以色列總理內塔尼亞胡保證美國不會支持以色列的反擊，這些都提供了一些安慰。

"Investors instinctively seek refuge in safe-haven assets during such moments," said Patrick Armstrong, Chief Investment Officer at Plurimi Wealth LLP. "Market reactions will largely hinge on Israel's response. If Israel refrains from escalation, it could present an opportunity to acquire riskier assets at lower prices."

Plurimi Wealth LLP 首席投資長 Patrick Armstrong 表示：“在這種時刻，投資者本能地尋求避險資產的庇護。” “市場反應將在很大程度上取決於以色列的反應。如果以色列避免升級，可能會提供一個以較低價格收購風險較高資產的機會。”

Bitcoin, a digital asset often considered a barometer of market sentiment, plunged almost 9% in the wake of the attacks on Saturday. However, it rebounded on Sunday, trading near $64,000. Equity markets in Saudi Arabia and Qatar posted moderate losses in thin trading, while Israel's equity benchmark oscillated between gains and losses before closing with a small advance.

比特幣通常被視為市場情緒晴雨表的數位資產，在周六的襲擊事件發生後暴跌近 9%。然而，週日反彈，交易價格接近 64,000 美元。沙烏地阿拉伯和卡達股市在交投清淡中小幅下跌，而以色列股市基準則在漲跌之間振盪，最終收盤小幅上漲。

"Middle Eastern markets commenced trading with relative tranquility following Iran's attack, perceived as a calculated response rather than an effort at escalation," said Emre Akcakmak, a senior consultant at East Capital in Dubai. "Nevertheless, the market impact could extend beyond the region due to knock-on effects on oil and energy prices, potentially influencing the global inflation outlook."

迪拜East Capital高級顧問埃姆雷·阿卡馬克(Emre Akcakmak)表示，“伊朗襲擊後，中東市場開始交易相對平靜，這被認為是經過深思熟慮的反應，而不是升級的努力。” “儘管如此，由於石油和能源價格的連鎖反應，市場影響可能會超出該地區，從而可能影響全球通膨前景。”

Investors now face the daunting task of assessing the likelihood of continued strikes and counter-strikes, with many seeking guidance from oil prices. Brent crude, the international benchmark, has surged almost 20% this year, trading above $90 per barrel.

投資者現在面臨著評估持續罷工和反擊的可能性的艱鉅任務，許多人尋求油價的指導。國際基準布蘭特原油今年已上漲近 20%，交易價格超過每桶 90 美元。

While the current conflict has not directly impacted production, Red Sea attacks by Iran-backed Houthi rebels have disrupted shipping. Traders fear a wider conflict could severely disrupt tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for oil exports from the Persian Gulf.

雖然當前的衝突沒有直接影響生產，但伊朗支持的胡塞叛亂分子的紅海襲擊已經擾亂了航運。交易商擔心，更廣泛的衝突可能會嚴重擾亂通過霍爾木茲海峽的油輪運輸，霍爾木茲海峽是波斯灣石油出口的咽喉要道。

Concerns about regional instability have reverberated through global markets. The S&P 500 Index recently suffered its steepest weekly decline since October, driven by higher-than-anticipated inflation and underwhelming bank earnings.

對地區不穩定的擔憂在全球市場引起迴響。受高於預期的通膨和銀行獲利不佳的推動，標準普爾 500 指數最近遭遇了自 10 月以來最大幅度的單週跌幅。

Bond markets face the prospect of energy price increases fueling inflation fears. While Treasuries typically rise in times of uncertainty, the threat of sustained high interest rates could limit their gains. US equity and bond futures are scheduled to open on Sunday at 6 p.m. New York time.

債券市場面臨能源價格上漲加劇通膨擔憂的前景。雖然國債通常會在不確定時期上漲，但持續高利率的威脅可能會限制其漲幅。美國股票和債券期貨定於週日下午 6 點開盤。紐約時間。

Meanwhile, gold has embarked on a relentless climb, gaining 13% this year to reach a record above $2,400 per ounce. Investors have also flocked to the stability of the US dollar, with an index of the currency rising 1.3% last week, marking its best performance since late 2022.

與此同時，金價開始持續攀升，今年上漲了 13%，達到每盎司 2,400 美元以上的歷史新高。投資人也紛紛湧向美元的穩定，上週美元指數上漲1.3%，創下2022年底以來的最佳表現。

Market experts and analysts weigh in on the unfolding events:

市場專家和分析師對正在發生的事件發表了看法：

• Erik Meyersson, Chief Emerging Markets Strategist at SEB: "Our oil analysts perceive limited signs of a geopolitical risk premium in oil prices thus far. This likely reflects market perceptions of low escalation risks to date. This equilibrium could be tested if Iran and Israel continue to engage in hostilities."
• Gonzalo Lardies, Senior Equities Fund Manager at Andbank: "A new era of uncertainty is unfolding, but markets partially priced this scenario on Friday. If the situation does not escalate further, the impact should be manageable. The risk lies in contagion effects within the region."
• Alfonso Benito, Chief Investment Officer at Dunas Capital: "Given Israel's robust air defense, I do not anticipate significant market declines. Defense stocks, oil, and gas are likely to rise, while airlines may face headwinds. Bonds will advance, but likely not excessively. Investors may capitalize on this opportunity to partially rectify recent gains."
• Joachim Klement, a Strategist at Liberum: "The response will largely hinge on Israel's actions today and the US's ability to restrain Benjamin Netanyahu. Geopolitics will overshadow central bank actions and strong US economic data in stock markets over the coming days. Hence, we anticipate a market pause until clarity emerges on the Iran-Israel situation. A shooting war between the two nations would prolong the market uncertainty."
• Mark Matthews, Strategist at Bank Julius Baer in Singapore: "Iran's advance warning of the attack and military analysts' assessment that it was executed with minimal casualties suggest a measured approach. I do not foresee a precipitous decline in Fed rate expectations or a surge in oil prices. Iran and the US aim to de-escalate the situation. Israel's response and Iran's subsequent reaction will be crucial. De-escalatory strikes from both sides could potentially end the conflict."
• Geoff Yu, Senior Strategist for EMEA Markets at BNY Mellon in London: "Even after recent buying following CPI data, there is scope for further dollar accumulation. Clients remain overweight the euro, Canadian dollar, and high-carry currencies like the Mexican peso. We will monitor these currencies for signs of rotation in favor of the greenback."
• Neil Shearing, Chief Economist at Capital Economics in London: "Events in the Middle East will likely contribute to the Fed's cautious approach to interest rate cuts, but it is unlikely to completely deter them. We expect the first cut in September. We also anticipate rate cuts from the ECB and BOE in June, assuming energy prices do not spike significantly in the coming weeks."

As the situation continues to evolve, investors worldwide will monitor geopolitical developments with bated breath. The potential for a cycle of retaliation could have far-reaching implications for global markets, with oil prices, safe-haven assets, and risk sentiment likely to bear the brunt of the impact.

SEB首席新興市場策略師艾耶森(Erik Meyersson)表示：「迄今為止，我們的石油分析師認為油價出現地緣政治風險溢價的跡像有限。這可能反映了市場迄今為止對升級風險較低的看法。新時代正在展開，但周五市場已經部分消化了這種情況，如果局勢沒有進一步升級，那麼影響的風險應該是可控的。 ：「鑑於以色列強大的防空能力，我預計國防股、石油和天然氣市場不會大幅下跌，而航空公司可能會面臨下跌。債券將會上漲，但可能不會過度上漲。」Liberum 策略師約阿希姆·克萊門特(Joachim Klement) 表示：「反應將在很大程度上取決於以色列今天的行動以及美國遏製本傑明·內塔尼亞胡的能力。 。未來幾天，地緣政治將掩蓋央行行動和股市強勁的美國經濟數據。因此，我們預期市場將暫停，直到伊朗-以色列局勢明朗為止。兩國之間的激烈戰爭將延長市場的不確定性。次攻擊是在傷亡最小的情況下進行的，這表明伊朗採取了謹慎的做法。我預期聯準會利率預期不會急劇下降，油價也不會飆升。伊朗和美國的目標是緩和局勢。以色列的反應和伊朗隨後的反應將至關重要。雙方緩和的罷工可能會結束衝突。客戶仍增持歐元、加幣和墨西哥比索等高利差貨幣。我們將監控這些貨幣是否有利於美元的輪動跡象。不大來徹底震懾他們。我們預計首次降息將在 9 月進行。假設能源價格在未來幾週內不會大幅上漲，我們也預期歐洲央行和英國央行將在 6 月降息。