全球M2货币供应一直处于历史最高水平 - 那么为什么比特币不飙升呢？

随着经济状况仍然动荡，市场将进入联邦储备的3月18日至19日会议，不确定性越来越大。

Global M2 money supply reached a new all-time high of $108.2 trillion in March 2024, rising 3.5% from its 2024 low of $104.5 trillion reached on January 6.

2024年3月，全球M2货币供应量达到了新历史最高额为108.2万亿美元，从2024年的低至104.5万亿美元的低价上涨了3.5％。

However, despite this surge in liquidity, Bitcoin’s price action has shown inconsistencies, sparking questions about a potential delayed response to the changing global liquidity landscape.

然而，尽管流动性激增，但比特币的价格行动仍显示出不一致之处，引发了人们对全球流动性不断变化的反应的潜在延迟反应的疑问。

M2 money supply serves as a broad measure of global liquidity, encompassing cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near-money assets.

M2货币供应量是全球流动性的广泛衡量，包括现金，支票存款和易于转换的近货币资产。

As M2 expands, liquidity typically flows into high-yielding investments, driving up prices in stocks, commodities, and Bitcoin. Conversely, contractions in M2 are often associated with risk-off periods, where assets struggle to gain upside momentum.

随着M2的扩展，流动性通常会流入高收益的投资，提高股票，商品和比特币的价格。相反，M2中的收缩通常与冒险期有关，资产难以获得上行势头。

A closer look at historical data reveals a strong correlation between Bitcoin’s price and M2 growth.

仔细研究历史数据表明，比特币的价格与M2增长之间存在很强的相关性。

Bitcoin’s most significant bull runs have coincided with periods of rapid liquidity expansion, while downturns in M2 have typically preceded declines in Bitcoin’s price or prolonged consolidations.

比特币最重要的公牛运行与快速流动性的时期相吻合，而M2的低迷通常在比特币的价格下降或延长合并之前下降。

However, a key observation is that Bitcoin does not react immediately to changes in liquidity. Research suggests an average lag of around 10 weeks for Bitcoin to fully reflect variations in M2 growth.

但是，一个关键的观察是，比特币对流动性的变化没有立即反应。研究表明，比特币的平均滞后滞后大约10周，以完全反映M2增长的变化。

The above chart further supports this narrative. Bitcoin’s recovery from its 2022-2023 lows coincided with a substantial increase in M2 growth.

上图进一步支持了这一叙述。比特币从2022 - 2023年的低点中恢复，与M2增长的大幅增长相吻合。

Similarly, in mid-2024, renewed expansion in M2 followed by Bitcoin reaching new highs.

同样，在2024年中期，M2的扩展更新了，然后比特币达到了新的高点。

But in early 2025, Bitcoin entered a period of consolidation despite M2 continuing its ascent. The missing ingredient appears to be the rate of change in liquidity rather than its absolute level.

但是在2025年初，尽管M2继续上升，比特币仍进入了一段合并。缺失的成分似乎是流动性的变化率，而不是其绝对水平。

A deeper analysis of Bitcoin’s year-on-year returns relative to the YoY change in M2 reveals a clearer pattern – Bitcoin’s strongest bull runs tend to emerge when we observe rapid acceleration in liquidity growth.

比特币相对于M2的Yoy变化，对比特币同比回报的更深入分析表明，当我们观察到流动性增长的快速加速时，比特币最强的牛跑步往往会出现。

Hence, mere liquidity expansion isn’t enough to trigger a breakout – acceleration in M2 growth seems to be the critical factor.

因此，仅仅流动性的扩展不足以引发突破 - M2增长的加速似乎是关键因素。

The Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening (QT) program, which began in June 2022, may be approaching its final stages.

美联储的定量收紧（QT）计划于2022年6月开始，可能正在接近其最后阶段。

As of March 18, over $6.2 million has been wagered on Polymarket, with traders assigning a 100% probability that the Fed will end QT by April 30.

截至3月18日，在Polymarket上下注了超过620万美元，交易员分配了100％的概率，即美联储将于4月30日结束QT。

At its core, QT is the opposite of quantitative easing (QE). Instead of injecting liquidity into the system by purchasing bonds, the Fed has been allowing assets to mature off its balance sheet, effectively pulling money out of circulation.

QT的核心是定量宽松（QE）的对立面。美联储没有通过购买债券将流动性注入系统，而是允许资产从其资产负债表中成熟，从而有效地将资金从流通中撤出。

This policy, alongside aggressive rate hikes, helped curb inflationary pressures but also created liquidity constraints that have weighed on markets. While stocks and crypto assets managed to rally despite QT’s tightening effects, concerns have emerged that continued balance sheet reduction could drain liquidity at a time of rising economic uncertainty.

这项政策以及积极的速度增长，有助于遏制通货膨胀压力，但也产生了对市场造成压力的流动性限制。尽管尽管有QT的紧缩影响，但库存和加密资产还是设法集结了，但人们担心在经济不确定性上升时，持续的资产负债表可能会浪费流动性。

The minutes from the January FOMC meeting revealed that several policymakers were open to either slowing or pausing QT, largely due to uncertainties surrounding the federal debt ceiling and evolving money market conditions, according to a report by Reuters.

一月份的FOMC会议的会议记录表明，有几个政策制定者愿意放缓或暂停QT，这在很大程度上是由于围绕联邦债务上限和不断发展的货币市场状况的不确定性所致。

Analysts note that the Treasury Department’s extraordinary measures to keep government operations funded have been injecting temporary liquidity into the system.

分析师指出，财政部的非凡措施保留资助的政府运营已向系统注入临时流动性。

This has made it harder for the Fed to accurately assess true reserve levels, creating a risk that it could withdraw too much liquidity too quickly, ultimately increasing financial market volatility.

这使美联储很难准确评估真正的储备金水平，从而造成了可能太快撤出过多流动性的风险，最终增加了金融市场的波动。

Despite rising expectations of a near-term end to QT, not all analysts agree on the timing.

尽管对QT的近期结束的期望不断提高，但并非所有分析师都同意时机。

Barclays maintains its projection that QT will conclude between September and October, arguing that pausing in March or May only to later restart reductions would be inefficient.

巴克莱坚持认为，QT将在9月至10月之间结束，认为3月或可能以后再重新降低减少将是效率低下的。

Meanwhile, Wrightson ICAP analysts believe the Fed is more likely to slow the pace of asset runoffs rather than halt them entirely, noting that a full stop could force the Fed to resume asset purchases later, creating communication difficulties for policymakers.

同时，Wrightson ICAP分析师认为，美联储更有可能降低资产径流的步伐，而不是完全停止它们，并指出一个完整的停止可能会迫使美联储以后再恢复资产购买，从而给政策制定者带来沟通困难。

Other economists, like research firm LH Meyer, caution that any pause in QT could risk turning into a full stop, as resuming the process later could prove difficult—especially if market conditions deteriorate further.

其他经济学家（例如研究公司LH Meyer）警告说，QT中的任何停顿都可能有可能成为一个完全停止的风险，因为后来恢复过程可能很困难，尤其是如果市场条件进一步恶化。

The Fed’s ability to gauge the right stopping point has been complicated by mixed signals from liquidity indicators.

美联储评估正确停止点的能力使流动性指标的混合信号变得复杂。

A survey of major banks and money managers conducted before the last policy meeting suggested QT could conclude between June and July.

在上次政策会议会议之前对主要银行和货币经理进行的调查表明，QT可以在6月至7月之间结束。

Fed holdings, which have already declined to $6.8 trillion from a peak of $9 trillion in 2022, are expected to fall further to around $6.4 trillion by the time the process ends.

美联储的股份已从2022年的9万亿美元的峰值下降到6.8万亿美元，预计到流程结束时将进一步降至6.4万亿美元。

However, estimates suggest that bank reserves will only dip slightly to $3.125 trillion from the current $3.3 trillion, while the Fed’s reverse repo facility—a measure of excess liquidity—has remained below $100 billion throughout February, indicating that financial conditions may already be tighter than intended.

但是，估计表明，银行储备只会从目前的3.3万亿美元略低至31.25万亿美元，而美联储的反向回购设施（衡量过多流动性的衡量标准）在整个2月份的流动性量仍低于1000亿美元，这表明财务状况可能已经比打算更紧密。

Historically, unwinding

从历史上看，放松