全球M2貨幣供應一直處於歷史最高水平 - 那麼為什麼比特幣不飆升呢？

隨著經濟狀況仍然動盪，市場將進入聯邦儲備的3月18日至19日會議，不確定性越來越大。

Global M2 money supply reached a new all-time high of $108.2 trillion in March 2024, rising 3.5% from its 2024 low of $104.5 trillion reached on January 6.

2024年3月，全球M2貨幣供應量達到了新歷史最高額為108.2萬億美元，從2024年的低至104.5萬億美元的低價上漲了3.5％。

However, despite this surge in liquidity, Bitcoin’s price action has shown inconsistencies, sparking questions about a potential delayed response to the changing global liquidity landscape.

然而，儘管流動性激增，但比特幣的價格行動仍顯示出不一致之處，引發了人們對全球流動性不斷變化的反應的潛在延遲反應的疑問。

M2 money supply serves as a broad measure of global liquidity, encompassing cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near-money assets.

M2貨幣供應量是全球流動性的廣泛衡量，包括現金，支票存款和易於轉換的近貨幣資產。

As M2 expands, liquidity typically flows into high-yielding investments, driving up prices in stocks, commodities, and Bitcoin. Conversely, contractions in M2 are often associated with risk-off periods, where assets struggle to gain upside momentum.

隨著M2的擴展，流動性通常會流入高收益的投資，提高股票，商品和比特幣的價格。相反，M2中的收縮通常與冒險期有關，資產難以獲得上行勢頭。

A closer look at historical data reveals a strong correlation between Bitcoin’s price and M2 growth.

仔細研究歷史數據表明，比特幣的價格與M2增長之間存在很強的相關性。

Bitcoin’s most significant bull runs have coincided with periods of rapid liquidity expansion, while downturns in M2 have typically preceded declines in Bitcoin’s price or prolonged consolidations.

比特幣最重要的公牛運行與快速流動性的時期相吻合，而M2的低迷通常在比特幣的價格下降或延長合併之前下降。

However, a key observation is that Bitcoin does not react immediately to changes in liquidity. Research suggests an average lag of around 10 weeks for Bitcoin to fully reflect variations in M2 growth.

但是，一個關鍵的觀察是，比特幣對流動性的變化沒有立即反應。研究表明，比特幣的平均滯後滯後大約10週，以完全反映M2增長的變化。

The above chart further supports this narrative. Bitcoin’s recovery from its 2022-2023 lows coincided with a substantial increase in M2 growth.

上圖進一步支持了這一敘述。比特幣從2022 - 2023年的低點中恢復，與M2增長的大幅增長相吻合。

Similarly, in mid-2024, renewed expansion in M2 followed by Bitcoin reaching new highs.

同樣，在2024年中期，M2的擴展更新了，然後比特幣達到了新的高點。

But in early 2025, Bitcoin entered a period of consolidation despite M2 continuing its ascent. The missing ingredient appears to be the rate of change in liquidity rather than its absolute level.

但是在2025年初，儘管M2繼續上升，比特幣仍進入了一段合併。缺失的成分似乎是流動性的變化率，而不是其絕對水平。

A deeper analysis of Bitcoin’s year-on-year returns relative to the YoY change in M2 reveals a clearer pattern – Bitcoin’s strongest bull runs tend to emerge when we observe rapid acceleration in liquidity growth.

比特幣相對於M2的Yoy變化，對比特幣同比回報的更深入分析表明，當我們觀察到流動性增長的快速加速時，比特幣最強的牛跑步往往會出現。

Hence, mere liquidity expansion isn’t enough to trigger a breakout – acceleration in M2 growth seems to be the critical factor.

因此，僅僅流動性的擴展不足以引發突破 - M2增長的加速似乎是關鍵因素。

The Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening (QT) program, which began in June 2022, may be approaching its final stages.

美聯儲的定量收緊（QT）計劃於2022年6月開始，可能正在接近其最後階段。

As of March 18, over $6.2 million has been wagered on Polymarket, with traders assigning a 100% probability that the Fed will end QT by April 30.

截至3月18日，在Polymarket上下注了超過620萬美元，交易員分配了100％的概率，即美聯儲將於4月30日結束QT。

At its core, QT is the opposite of quantitative easing (QE). Instead of injecting liquidity into the system by purchasing bonds, the Fed has been allowing assets to mature off its balance sheet, effectively pulling money out of circulation.

QT的核心是定量寬鬆（QE）的對立面。美聯儲沒有通過購買債券將流動性注入系統，而是允許資產從其資產負債表中成熟，從而有效地將資金從流通中撤出。

This policy, alongside aggressive rate hikes, helped curb inflationary pressures but also created liquidity constraints that have weighed on markets. While stocks and crypto assets managed to rally despite QT’s tightening effects, concerns have emerged that continued balance sheet reduction could drain liquidity at a time of rising economic uncertainty.

這項政策以及積極的速度增長，有助於遏制通貨膨脹壓力，但也產生了對市場造成壓力的流動性限制。儘管儘管有QT的緊縮影響，但庫存和加密資產還是設法集結了，但人們擔心在經濟不確定性上升時，持續的資產負債表可能會浪費流動性。

The minutes from the January FOMC meeting revealed that several policymakers were open to either slowing or pausing QT, largely due to uncertainties surrounding the federal debt ceiling and evolving money market conditions, according to a report by Reuters.

一月份的FOMC會議的會議記錄表明，有幾個政策制定者願意放緩或暫停QT，這在很大程度上是由於圍繞聯邦債務上限和不斷發展的貨幣市場狀況的不確定性所致。

Analysts note that the Treasury Department’s extraordinary measures to keep government operations funded have been injecting temporary liquidity into the system.

分析師指出，財政部的非凡措施保留資助的政府運營已向系統注入臨時流動性。

This has made it harder for the Fed to accurately assess true reserve levels, creating a risk that it could withdraw too much liquidity too quickly, ultimately increasing financial market volatility.

這使美聯儲很難準確評估真正的儲備金水平，從而造成了可能太快撤出過多流動性的風險，最終增加了金融市場的波動。

Despite rising expectations of a near-term end to QT, not all analysts agree on the timing.

儘管對QT的近期結束的期望不斷提高，但並非所有分析師都同意時機。

Barclays maintains its projection that QT will conclude between September and October, arguing that pausing in March or May only to later restart reductions would be inefficient.

巴克萊堅持認為，QT將在9月至10月之間結束，認為3月或可能以後再重新降低減少將是效率低下的。

Meanwhile, Wrightson ICAP analysts believe the Fed is more likely to slow the pace of asset runoffs rather than halt them entirely, noting that a full stop could force the Fed to resume asset purchases later, creating communication difficulties for policymakers.

同時，Wrightson ICAP分析師認為，美聯儲更有可能降低資產徑流的步伐，而不是完全停止它們，並指出一個完整的停止可能會迫使美聯儲以後再恢復資產購買，從而給政策制定者帶來溝通困難。

Other economists, like research firm LH Meyer, caution that any pause in QT could risk turning into a full stop, as resuming the process later could prove difficult—especially if market conditions deteriorate further.

其他經濟學家（例如研究公司LH Meyer）警告說，QT中的任何停頓都可能有可能成為一個完全停止的風險，因為後來恢復過程可能很困難，尤其是如果市場條件進一步惡化。

The Fed’s ability to gauge the right stopping point has been complicated by mixed signals from liquidity indicators.

美聯儲評估正確停止點的能力使流動性指標的混合信號變得複雜。

A survey of major banks and money managers conducted before the last policy meeting suggested QT could conclude between June and July.

在上次政策會議會議之前對主要銀行和貨幣經理進行的調查表明，QT可以在6月至7月之間結束。

Fed holdings, which have already declined to $6.8 trillion from a peak of $9 trillion in 2022, are expected to fall further to around $6.4 trillion by the time the process ends.

美聯儲的股份已從2022年的9萬億美元的峰值下降到6.8萬億美元，預計到流程結束時將進一步降至6.4萬億美元。

However, estimates suggest that bank reserves will only dip slightly to $3.125 trillion from the current $3.3 trillion, while the Fed’s reverse repo facility—a measure of excess liquidity—has remained below $100 billion throughout February, indicating that financial conditions may already be tighter than intended.

但是，估計表明，銀行儲備只會從目前的3.3萬億美元略低至31.25萬億美元，而美聯儲的反向回購設施（衡量過多流動性的衡量標準）在整個2月份的流動性量仍低於1000億美元，這表明財務狀況可能已經比打算更緊密。

Historically, unwinding

從歷史上看，放鬆