美联储利率决定前瞻：预计降息25个基点，但焦点将转向主席鲍威尔对未来政策的展望

当美联储周四结束最新一次会议时，投资者预计将出现一个值得注意但可预测的结果：降息 25 个基点。

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut on Thursday, marking a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes.

市场普遍预计美联储周四将宣布降息25个基点，标志着加息步伐放缓。

However, the decision will be closely followed by investors eager to gauge Chair Jerome Powell’s outlook on future Fed policies.

然而，渴望评估主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔对美联储未来政策前景的投资者将密切关注这一决定。

Here are some key points to watch for in the upcoming announcement.

以下是即将发布的公告中需要关注的一些要点。

The backdrop of political change

政治变革的背景

The Fed meeting comes against the backdrop of an altered political landscape following Donald Trump’s return to the presidential scene.

此次美联储会议是在唐纳德·特朗普重返总统舞台后政治格局发生变化的背景下召开的。

Trump’s policy ambitions—tax cuts, increased government spending, and protectionist tariffs—could pose complex challenges for the Fed.

特朗普的政策雄心——减税、增加政府支出和保护主义关税——可能会给美联储带来复杂的挑战。

During his previous term from 2017 to 2021, Trump’s economic approach kept inflation below 3%, despite aggressive fiscal measures.

在2017年至2021年的上一任期内，特朗普的经济方针尽管采取了激进的财政措施，但仍将通胀率控制在3%以下。

However, economists caution that repeating such a playbook now might rekindle inflationary pressures.

然而，经济学家警告说，现在重复这样的策略可能会重新引发通胀压力。

Krishna Guha, head of global policy at Evercore ISI, predicts that Powell will seek to strike a neutral tone, maintaining the Fed’s tradition of staying apolitical.

Evercore ISI全球政策主管克里希纳·古哈(Krishna Guha)预测，鲍威尔将寻求采取中性基调，维持美联储保持非政治性的传统。

Powell will likely indicate that the Fed needs time to evaluate the incoming administration’s plans and will adjust policy only when there’s clarity on actual implementations.

鲍威尔可能会表示，美联储需要时间来评估即将上任的政府的计划，只有在实际实施情况明确后才会调整政策。

Powell’s balancing act: Immediate cuts and future paths

鲍威尔的平衡行为：立即削减和未来路径

With a quarter-point cut on the table, the fed funds rate will move closer to 4.5%-4.75%, following last month’s 50 basis point reduction.

随着上个月降息 50 个基点，联邦基金利率将进一步接近 4.5%-4.75%。

Traders are eyeing Powell’s post-meeting remarks for signals about the future.

交易员正在关注鲍威尔的会后言论，以寻找有关未来的信号。

The rate influences consumer loans and other forms of debt, indirectly impacting spending and investment.

该利率影响消费贷款和其他形式的债务，间接影响支出和投资。

Quincy Krosby, LPL Financial’s chief global strategist, said in a CNBC report that “everyone is on the lookout for future rate cuts and whether anything is telegraphed.”

LPL Financial 首席全球策略师昆西·克罗斯比 (Quincy Krosby) 在 CNBC 的一份报告中表示，“每个人都在关注未来的降息以及是否有任何消息传出。”

Krosby noted that despite the Fed’s ongoing focus on tempering inflation, a crucial question remains: can Powell and his team declare victory on this front?

克罗斯比指出，尽管美联储持续关注抑制通胀，但一个关键问题仍然存在：鲍威尔和他的团队能否宣布在这方面取得胜利？

Unanswered questions and economic projections

未解答的问题和经济预测

One notable absence from Thursday’s announcement will be an updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).

周四的公告中值得注意的一个缺失是更新的经济预测摘要（SEP）。

This quarterly report outlines officials’ predictions for GDP, inflation, unemployment, and interest rates.

该季度报告概述了官员对国内生产总值、通货膨胀、失业率和利率的预测。

The next SEP release is due in December, which could provide more insight into how the Fed views the economic path amid evolving political dynamics.

下一次 SEP 将于 12 月发布，这可以让人们更深入地了解美联储在不断变化的政治动态中如何看待经济路径。

Bill English, former head of monetary affairs at the Fed and current Yale finance professor, pointed out in the report that the term “terminal rate” may re-enter discussions if yields climb further without a clear link to growth.

美联储前货币事务主管、现任耶鲁大学金融学教授比尔·英格利希(Bill English)在报告中指出，如果收益率在与经济增长没有明确联系的情况下进一步攀升，“最终利率”一词可能会重新进入讨论。

English suggested that the Fed might consider pausing its rate adjustments soon to assess their impact on the economy, which remains resilient despite uncertainties.

英格利希表示，美联储可能会考虑尽快暂停利率调整，以评估其对经济的影响，尽管存在不确定性，但经济仍保持弹性。

Looking to 2025: market forecasts and future cuts

展望 2025 年：市场预测和未来削减

The future path of interest rates is murky, with market sentiment divided.

未来利率走势不明朗，市场情绪分歧。

Fed funds futures indicate a potential target range drop to 3.75%-4.0% by 2025, a full percentage point below current levels.

联邦基金期货显示，到 2025 年，潜在目标范围将降至 3.75%-4.0%，比当前水平低整整一个百分点。

Meanwhile, the Secured Overnight Financing Rate suggests a more conservative outlook, showing short-term rates stabilizing around 4.2% by the end of 2025.

与此同时，有担保隔夜融资利率显示出更为保守的前景，显示短期利率到 2025 年底稳定在 4.2% 左右。

This disparity reflects traders’ varied assessments of economic resilience and the influence of Trump’s policy ambitions on inflation and growth.

这种差异反映了交易者对经济弹性以及特朗普政策雄心对通胀和增长影响的不同评估。

If inflation spikes again due to protectionist policies or fiscal spending, Powell and his team might need to reconsider their current rate trajectory.

如果通胀因保护主义政策或财政支出再次飙升，鲍威尔和他的团队可能需要重新考虑当前的利率轨迹。

The bond run-off: a quiet, persistent strategy

债券流失：安静、持久的策略

Beyond rate adjustments, the Fed has been steadily reducing its balance sheet since June 2022, with nearly $2 trillion in bonds shed so far.

除了利率调整之外，美联储自 2022 年 6 月以来一直在稳步缩减资产负债表，迄今为止已缩减了近 2 万亿美元的债券。

Powell has suggested that this process could continue even during rate cuts, though Wall Street anticipates the run-off may end by early 2025.

鲍威尔表示，即使在降息期间，这一过程也可能会继续，尽管华尔街预计第二轮大选可能会在 2025 年初结束。

English highlighted that while the Fed has been content with letting this strategy quietly unfold, future adjustments could come under scrutiny.

英格利希强调，虽然美联储一直满足于让这一策略悄然展开，但未来的调整可能会受到审查。