比特币：触手可及的历史里程碑

比特币的价格继续呈现令人印象深刻的增长，过去 7 天上涨了近 8%。

Bitcoin price has been oscillating rapidly in recent days, following a spectacular surge that brought the flagship cryptocurrency to the brink of $99,500. However, after flirting with this key level, BTC’s advance seems to have stalled, leaving traders guessing about the next move.

最近几天，比特币的价格一直在快速波动，此前，这一旗舰加密货币的价格曾大幅飙升至 99,500 美元的边缘。然而，在触及这一关键水平后，比特币的上涨似乎已经停滞，让交易者猜测下一步走势。

But while بازارات التوقعات مثل Kalshi hint at even more dizzying figures for the end of the year, suggesting a potential historic rally, what are the real data that could be driving this optimism?

但是，尽管巴扎克·卡尔希暗示年底的数据会更加令人眼花缭乱，暗示可能出现历史性反弹，但推动这种乐观情绪的真正数据是什么？

Bitcoin price eyes a historic milestone

比特币价格迎来历史性里程碑

The price of Bitcoin continues to showcase impressive growth, وإن كان ذلك بشكل متقطع, with an increase of nearly 8% over the past seven days. Since November 5, when it was valued at $67,842.12, its price has surged by 45.51%, reaching $98,962 last night.

比特币的价格继续呈现令人印象深刻的增长，在过去 7 天里上涨了近 8%。自11月5日估值67,842.12美元以来，其价格已飙升45.51%，昨晚达到98,962美元。

However, a slight drop of 0.2% was recorded in the last 24 hours, bringing the current price to around $98,500. Nevertheless, the general trend remains optimistic, with some traders and analysts projecting particularly ambitious figures.

然而，过去 24 小时内小幅下跌 0.2%，使当前价格降至 98,500 美元左右。尽管如此，总体趋势仍然乐观，一些交易员和分析师预测了特别雄心勃勃的数字。

According to prediction markets, such as Kalshi, there is a 95% probability that BTC will exceed $100,000 by December 31. Even better, these same markets estimate a 13% chance that it will reach $150,000 before the end of the year.

根据 Kalshi 等预测市场的预测，到 12 月 31 日，BTC 的价格将有 95% 的可能性超过 100,000 美元。更好的是，这些市场估计 BTC 在年底前达到 150,000 美元的可能性为 13%。

Based on this data, a rally scenario beyond 100K seems increasingly plausible.

根据这些数据，超过 100K 的反弹情景似乎越来越合理。

BTC price: rapid growth, numerical projections

比特币价格：快速增长，数字预测

Since the beginning of the month, the market has been oscillating between spikes and slight corrections, وإن كان ذلك بشكل متقطع, yet remaining overall bullish. A performance similar to that of the second weekend in November (+5.29%) could allow Bitcoin to cross $103,975 as early as Monday, November 25.

自本月初以来，市场一直在上涨和小幅调整之间振荡，但总体仍保持看涨。与 11 月第二个周末类似的表现（+5.29%）可能会让比特币最早在 11 月 25 日星期一突破 103,975 美元。

On the other hand, other weekends have shown declines (-1.19% and -1.36%), illustrating the persistent volatility of BTC.

另一方面，其他周末则出现下跌（-1.19%和-1.36%），说明BTC的持续波动。

As for the end-of-year projections, they are equally fascinating:

至于年终预测，它们同样令人着迷：

These figures reflect unprecedented growth potential, but also significant risks associated with market fluctuations.

这些数字反映了前所未有的增长潜力，但也反映了与市场波动相关的重大风险。

Thus, while Bitcoin seems on the verge of breaking through the $100,000 ceiling, some analysts fear a sudden reversal. Traders, meanwhile, oscillate between euphoria and caution, in a market more unstable than ever.

因此，虽然比特币似乎即将突破 10 万美元上限，但一些分析师担心比特币价格会突然逆转。与此同时，市场比以往任何时候都更加不稳定，交易员在兴奋和谨慎之间摇摆不定。

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