随着美国参议员提出建立战略比特币储备的计划，比特币脱离了黄金

比特币和黄金正朝着不同的方向发展。多年来，投资者将这两者视为避险资产，但最近的趋势正在分裂这两者。

Bitcoin’s recent rally has State Street Global Advisors’ chief gold strategist raising an eyebrow. According to George Milling-Stanley, investors are falling for a dangerous illusion by mistaking Bitcoin’s meteoric rise for stability.

比特币最近的上涨让道富环球顾问公司的首席黄金策略师感到惊讶。乔治·米林-斯坦利表示，投资者误以为比特币的迅速上涨是稳定的，因此陷入了危险的幻想之中。

Milling-Stanley claims that Bitcoin doesn’t even come close to matching gold’s time-tested safety, and the current frenzy is all about returns, not reliability.

米林-斯坦利声称，比特币的安全性甚至无法与黄金相媲美，而且当前的狂热主要是回报，而不是可靠性。

“Bitcoin, pure and simple, it’s a return play, and I think that people have been jumping onto the return plays,” he said.

“比特币，纯粹而简单，这是一种回报游戏，我认为人们一直在跳入回报游戏，”他说。

This critique landed during the 20th-anniversary celebrations of SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), the world’s largest physically backed gold ETF. It’s up more than 30% this year, and Milling-Stanley didn’t miss the opportunity to remind everyone of gold’s staying power.

这一批评是在全球最大的实物支持黄金 ETF SPDR 黄金股 ETF (GLD) 成立 20 周年庆典期间提出的。今年金价上涨了 30% 以上，Milling-Stanley 没有放过这个机会提醒大家黄金的持久力。

“Gold was $450 an ounce 20 years ago. It’s now five times that. If you look at a five-times price, then gold should be somewhere over $100,000 in twenty years’ time,” he said.

“20 年前，黄金价格为每盎司 450 美元。现在是这个数字的五倍。如果你看一下五倍的价格，那么二十年后金价应该会超过 10 万美元，”他说。

Gold is still delivering. Futures for the precious metal hit $2,712.20 on Friday, the highest since November 5 and just 3% below its record high from late October. But while gold enjoyed its best weekly performance since March 2023, Bitcoin’s recent surge stole the spotlight, smashing records and pushing boundaries.

黄金仍在交付。贵金属期货周五触及 2,712.20 美元，为 11 月 5 日以来的最高水平，仅比 10 月底创下的历史高位低 3%。尽管黄金创下了 2023 年 3 月以来的最佳单周表现，但比特币最近的飙升却抢尽了风头，打破了记录并突破了界限。

Bitcoin breaks away from gold

比特币脱离黄金

Gold and Bitcoin are heading in different directions. For years, investors treated the two as safe-haven assets, but recent trends are splitting the pair apart.

黄金和比特币正朝着不同的方向发展。多年来，投资者将这两者视为避险资产，但最近的趋势正在分裂这两者。

Bitcoin has surged since the November 5 election, riding high on political optimism and increasing adoption. Meanwhile, gold’s strong year is showing cracks, with profit-taking starting to chip away at its momentum.

自 11 月 5 日大选以来，由于政治乐观情绪和采用率不断提高，比特币价格飙升。与此同时，黄金强劲的一年出现了裂痕，获利了结开始削弱其势头。

Milling-Stanley believes Bitcoin’s rise is no accident. He accused crypto promoters of trying to steal gold’s shine, even pointing to the use of mining terminology as a strategic ploy.

米林-斯坦利认为比特币的崛起并非偶然。他指责加密货币推广者试图窃取黄金的光芒，甚至指出使用采矿术语作为一种战略策略。

“This is why Bitcoin promoters called it mining. There’s no mining involved. This is a computer operation, pure and simple. But they called it mining because they wanted to seem like gold — maybe take some of the aura away from the gold,” he said.

“这就是比特币推广者称之为挖矿的原因。不涉及采矿。这是计算机操作，纯粹而简单。但他们称之为采矿，因为他们希望看起来像黄金——也许会带走黄金的一些光环，”他说。

His skepticism didn’t end there. While he’s confident gold will remain valuable, even he admitted, “I have no idea what’s going to happen over the next 20 years except it’s going to be a fun ride.”

他的怀疑并没有就此结束。尽管他相信黄金将保持价值，但他也承认，“我不知道未来 20 年会发生什么，除非这将是一次有趣的旅程。”

Washington gets involved

华盛顿介入

Bitcoin, however, seems unstoppable. Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis from Wyoming is pitching an ambitious plan to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve.

然而，比特币似乎势不可挡。来自怀俄明州的共和党参议员辛西娅·鲁米斯 (Cynthia Lummis) 正在提出一项雄心勃勃的计划，以创建战略比特币储备。

Her proposal: Sell some of the Federal Reserve’s gold holdings and use the proceeds to buy 1 million Bitcoin, roughly 5% of the crypto’s entire supply. The cost? About $90 billion at current prices.

她的建议是：出售美联储持有的部分黄金，并用所得收益购买 100 万枚比特币，约占加密货币总供应量的 5%。费用？按当前价格计算约为 900 亿美元。

“We already have the financial assets in the form of gold certificates to convert to Bitcoin,” Lummis said, insisting that the move would leave the U.S. balance sheet largely unaffected.

鲁米斯表示：“我们已经拥有黄金凭证形式的金融资产，可以转换为比特币。”他坚称此举将使美国的资产负债表基本不受影响。

Her plan also includes holding the Bitcoin for at least 20 years, banking on its value to rise significantly. The idea is that Bitcoin’s future appreciation could help pay down the national debt.

她的计划还包括持有比特币至少 20 年，指望其价值大幅上涨。这个想法是，比特币未来的升值可能有助于偿还国家债务。

Lummis’ bill would expand on “crypto president” Donald Trump’s existing idea to establish a Bitcoin reserve. Right now, the U.S. government holds around 200,000 Bitcoin, seized in criminal cases and asset forfeitures.

鲁米斯的法案将扩展“加密货币总统”唐纳德·特朗普建立比特币储备的现有想法。目前，美国政府持有约 20 万枚比特币，这些比特币是在刑事案件和资产没收中扣押的。

Under her plan, the stash would grow exponentially, potentially making the U.S. the biggest Bitcoin holder in the world. But it’s not all smooth sailing.

根据她的计划，比特币的藏匿量将呈指数级增长，有可能使美国成为世界上最大的比特币持有者。但这并非一帆风顺。

Her proposal, which currently lacks co-sponsors, faces an uphill battle in Congress. The crypto prediction market Polymarket gives her plan a 31% chance of passing.

她的提案目前缺乏共同提案国，在国会面临着一场艰苦的战斗。加密货币预测市场 Polymarket 给她的计划通过的几率为 31%。