隨著美國參議員提出建立戰略比特幣儲備的計劃，比特幣脫離了黃金

比特幣和黃金正朝著不同的方向發展。多年來，投資者將這兩者視為避險資產，但最近的趨勢正在分裂這兩者。

Bitcoin’s recent rally has State Street Global Advisors’ chief gold strategist raising an eyebrow. According to George Milling-Stanley, investors are falling for a dangerous illusion by mistaking Bitcoin’s meteoric rise for stability.

比特幣最近的上漲讓道富環球顧問公司的首席黃金策略師感到驚訝。喬治米林-史丹利表示，投資人誤以為比特幣的快速上漲是穩定的，因此陷入了危險的幻想之中。

Milling-Stanley claims that Bitcoin doesn’t even come close to matching gold’s time-tested safety, and the current frenzy is all about returns, not reliability.

米林-史丹利聲稱，比特幣的安全性甚至無法與黃金相媲美，而且當前的狂熱主要是回報，而不是可靠性。

“Bitcoin, pure and simple, it’s a return play, and I think that people have been jumping onto the return plays,” he said.

「比特幣，純粹而簡單，這是一種回報遊戲，我認為人們一直在跳入回報遊戲，」他說。

This critique landed during the 20th-anniversary celebrations of SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), the world’s largest physically backed gold ETF. It’s up more than 30% this year, and Milling-Stanley didn’t miss the opportunity to remind everyone of gold’s staying power.

這項批評是在全球最大的實物支持黃金 ETF SPDR 黃金股 ETF (GLD) 成立 20 週年慶典期間提出的。今年金價上漲了 30% 以上，Milling-Stanley 並沒有放過這個機會提醒大家黃金的持久力。

“Gold was $450 an ounce 20 years ago. It’s now five times that. If you look at a five-times price, then gold should be somewhere over $100,000 in twenty years’ time,” he said.

「20 年前，黃金價格為每盎司 450 美元。現在是這個數字的五倍。如果你看一下五倍的價格，那麼二十年後金價應該會超過 10 萬美元，」他說。

Gold is still delivering. Futures for the precious metal hit $2,712.20 on Friday, the highest since November 5 and just 3% below its record high from late October. But while gold enjoyed its best weekly performance since March 2023, Bitcoin’s recent surge stole the spotlight, smashing records and pushing boundaries.

黃金仍在交付。貴金屬期貨週五觸及 2,712.20 美元，為 11 月 5 日以來的最高水平，僅比 10 月底創下的歷史高點低 3%。儘管黃金創下了 2023 年 3 月以來的最佳單週表現，但比特幣最近的飆升卻搶盡了風頭，打破了記錄並突破了界限。

Bitcoin breaks away from gold

比特幣脫離黃金

Gold and Bitcoin are heading in different directions. For years, investors treated the two as safe-haven assets, but recent trends are splitting the pair apart.

黃金和比特幣正朝著不同的方向發展。多年來，投資者將這兩者視為避險資產，但最近的趨勢正在分裂這兩者。

Bitcoin has surged since the November 5 election, riding high on political optimism and increasing adoption. Meanwhile, gold’s strong year is showing cracks, with profit-taking starting to chip away at its momentum.

自 11 月 5 日大選以來，由於政治樂觀情緒和採用率不斷提高，比特幣價格飆升。同時，黃金強勁的一年出現了裂痕，獲利了結開始削弱其勢頭。

Milling-Stanley believes Bitcoin’s rise is no accident. He accused crypto promoters of trying to steal gold’s shine, even pointing to the use of mining terminology as a strategic ploy.

米林-史丹利認為比特幣的崛起並非偶然。他指責加密貨幣推廣者試圖竊取黃金的光芒，甚至指出使用採礦術語作為一種策略策略。

“This is why Bitcoin promoters called it mining. There’s no mining involved. This is a computer operation, pure and simple. But they called it mining because they wanted to seem like gold — maybe take some of the aura away from the gold,” he said.

「這就是比特幣推廣者稱之為挖礦的原因。不涉及採礦。這是計算機操作，純粹而簡單。但他們稱之為採礦，因為他們希望看起來像黃金——也許會帶走黃金的一些光環，」他說。

His skepticism didn’t end there. While he’s confident gold will remain valuable, even he admitted, “I have no idea what’s going to happen over the next 20 years except it’s going to be a fun ride.”

他的懷疑並沒有就此結束。儘管他相信黃金將保持價值，但他也承認，“我不知道未來 20 年會發生什麼，除非這將是一次有趣的旅程。”

Washington gets involved

華盛頓介入

Bitcoin, however, seems unstoppable. Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis from Wyoming is pitching an ambitious plan to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve.

然而，比特幣似乎勢不可擋。來自懷俄明州的共和黨參議員辛西婭·魯米斯 (Cynthia Lummis) 正在提出一項雄心勃勃的計劃，以創建戰略比特幣儲備。

Her proposal: Sell some of the Federal Reserve’s gold holdings and use the proceeds to buy 1 million Bitcoin, roughly 5% of the crypto’s entire supply. The cost? About $90 billion at current prices.

她的建議是：出售聯準會持有的部分黃金，並用所得收益購買 100 萬枚比特幣，約佔加密貨幣總供應量的 5%。費用？以當前價格計算約 900 億美元。

“We already have the financial assets in the form of gold certificates to convert to Bitcoin,” Lummis said, insisting that the move would leave the U.S. balance sheet largely unaffected.

魯米斯表示：「我們已經擁有黃金憑證形式的金融資產，可以轉換為比特幣。」他堅稱此舉將使美國的資產負債表基本上不受影響。

Her plan also includes holding the Bitcoin for at least 20 years, banking on its value to rise significantly. The idea is that Bitcoin’s future appreciation could help pay down the national debt.

她的計劃還包括持有比特幣至少 20 年，指望其價值會大幅上漲。這個想法是，比特幣未來的升值可能有助於償還國家債務。

Lummis’ bill would expand on “crypto president” Donald Trump’s existing idea to establish a Bitcoin reserve. Right now, the U.S. government holds around 200,000 Bitcoin, seized in criminal cases and asset forfeitures.

魯米斯的法案將擴展「加密貨幣總統」唐納德·川普建立比特幣儲備的現有想法。目前，美國政府持有約 20 萬枚比特幣，這些比特幣是在刑事案件和資產沒收中扣押的。

Under her plan, the stash would grow exponentially, potentially making the U.S. the biggest Bitcoin holder in the world. But it’s not all smooth sailing.

根據她的計劃，比特幣的藏匿量將呈指數級增長，有可能使美國成為世界上最大的比特幣持有者。但這並非一帆風順。

Her proposal, which currently lacks co-sponsors, faces an uphill battle in Congress. The crypto prediction market Polymarket gives her plan a 31% chance of passing.

她的提案目前缺乏共同提案國，在國會面臨一場艱苦的戰鬥。加密貨幣預測市場 Polymarket 給她的計畫通過的幾率為 31%。