聯準會利率決定前瞻：預計降息25個基點，但焦點將轉向主席鮑威爾對未來政策的展望

當聯準會週四結束最新一次會議時，投資者預計將出現一個值得注意但可預測的結果：降息 25 個基點。

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut on Thursday, marking a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes.

市場普遍預期聯準會週四將宣布降息25個基點，標誌著升息步伐放緩。

However, the decision will be closely followed by investors eager to gauge Chair Jerome Powell’s outlook on future Fed policies.

然而，渴望評估主席鮑威爾對聯準會未來政策前景的投資者將密切關注這項決定。

Here are some key points to watch for in the upcoming announcement.

以下是即將發布的公告中需要關注的一些要點。

The backdrop of political change

政治變革的背景

The Fed meeting comes against the backdrop of an altered political landscape following Donald Trump’s return to the presidential scene.

這次聯準會會議是在唐納德·川普重返總統舞台後政治格局發生變化的背景下召開的。

Trump’s policy ambitions—tax cuts, increased government spending, and protectionist tariffs—could pose complex challenges for the Fed.

川普的政策野心——減稅、增加政府支出和保護主義關稅——可能會為聯準會帶來複雜的挑戰。

During his previous term from 2017 to 2021, Trump’s economic approach kept inflation below 3%, despite aggressive fiscal measures.

在2017年至2021年的上一任期內，川普的經濟方針儘管採取了激進的財政措施，但仍將通膨率控制在3%以下。

However, economists caution that repeating such a playbook now might rekindle inflationary pressures.

然而，經濟學家警告說，現在重複這樣的策略可能會重新引發通膨壓力。

Krishna Guha, head of global policy at Evercore ISI, predicts that Powell will seek to strike a neutral tone, maintaining the Fed’s tradition of staying apolitical.

Evercore ISI全球政策主管克里希納·古哈(Krishna Guha)預測，鮑威爾將尋求採取中性基調，維持聯準會保持非政治性的傳統。

Powell will likely indicate that the Fed needs time to evaluate the incoming administration’s plans and will adjust policy only when there’s clarity on actual implementations.

鮑威爾可能會表示，聯準會需要時間來評估即將上任的政府的計劃，只有在實際實施情況明確後才會調整政策。

Powell’s balancing act: Immediate cuts and future paths

鮑威爾的平衡行為：立即削減與未來路徑

With a quarter-point cut on the table, the fed funds rate will move closer to 4.5%-4.75%, following last month’s 50 basis point reduction.

隨著上個月降息 50 個基點，聯邦基金利率將進一步接近 4.5%-4.75%。

Traders are eyeing Powell’s post-meeting remarks for signals about the future.

交易員正在關注鮑威爾的會後言論，以尋找有關未來的訊號。

The rate influences consumer loans and other forms of debt, indirectly impacting spending and investment.

此利率影響消費貸款和其他形式的債務，間接影響支出和投資。

Quincy Krosby, LPL Financial’s chief global strategist, said in a CNBC report that “everyone is on the lookout for future rate cuts and whether anything is telegraphed.”

LPL Financial 首席全球策略師昆西·克羅斯比 (Quincy Krosby) 在 CNBC 的一份報告中表示，“每個人都在關注未來的降息以及是否有任何消息傳出。”

Krosby noted that despite the Fed’s ongoing focus on tempering inflation, a crucial question remains: can Powell and his team declare victory on this front?

克羅斯比指出，儘管聯準會持續專注於抑制通膨，但一個關鍵問題仍然存在：鮑威爾和他的團隊能否宣佈在這方面取得勝利？

Unanswered questions and economic projections

未解答的問題和經濟預測

One notable absence from Thursday’s announcement will be an updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).

週四的公告中值得注意的一個缺失是更新的經濟預測摘要（SEP）。

This quarterly report outlines officials’ predictions for GDP, inflation, unemployment, and interest rates.

該季度報告概述了官員對國內生產總值、通貨膨脹、失業率和利率的預測。

The next SEP release is due in December, which could provide more insight into how the Fed views the economic path amid evolving political dynamics.

下一次 SEP 將於 12 月發布，這可以讓人們更深入了解聯準會在不斷變化的政治動態中如何看待經濟路徑。

Bill English, former head of monetary affairs at the Fed and current Yale finance professor, pointed out in the report that the term “terminal rate” may re-enter discussions if yields climb further without a clear link to growth.

聯準會前貨幣事務主管、現任耶魯大學金融學教授比爾‧英格利希(Bill English)在報告中指出，如果收益率在與經濟成長沒有明確聯繫的情況下進一步攀升，「最終利率」一詞可能會重新進入討論。

English suggested that the Fed might consider pausing its rate adjustments soon to assess their impact on the economy, which remains resilient despite uncertainties.

英格利希表示，聯準會可能會考慮盡快暫停利率調整，以評估對經濟的影響，儘管存在不確定性，但經濟仍保持彈性。

Looking to 2025: market forecasts and future cuts

展望 2025 年：市場預測與未來削減

The future path of interest rates is murky, with market sentiment divided.

未來利率走勢不明朗，市場情緒分歧。

Fed funds futures indicate a potential target range drop to 3.75%-4.0% by 2025, a full percentage point below current levels.

聯邦基金期貨顯示，到 2025 年，潛在目標範圍將降至 3.75%-4.0%，比目前水準低整整一個百分點。

Meanwhile, the Secured Overnight Financing Rate suggests a more conservative outlook, showing short-term rates stabilizing around 4.2% by the end of 2025.

同時，有擔保隔夜融資利率顯示出更保守的前景，顯示短期利率到 2025 年底穩定在 4.2% 左右。

This disparity reflects traders’ varied assessments of economic resilience and the influence of Trump’s policy ambitions on inflation and growth.

這種差異反映了交易者對經濟彈性以及川普政策雄心對通膨和成長影響的不同評估。

If inflation spikes again due to protectionist policies or fiscal spending, Powell and his team might need to reconsider their current rate trajectory.

如果通膨因保護主義政策或財政支出再次飆升，鮑威爾和他的團隊可能需要重新考慮當前的利率軌跡。

The bond run-off: a quiet, persistent strategy

債券流失：安靜、持久的策略

Beyond rate adjustments, the Fed has been steadily reducing its balance sheet since June 2022, with nearly $2 trillion in bonds shed so far.

除了利率調整之外，聯準會自 2022 年 6 月以來一直在穩步縮減資產負債表，迄今已縮減了近 2 兆美元的債券。

Powell has suggested that this process could continue even during rate cuts, though Wall Street anticipates the run-off may end by early 2025.

鮑威爾表示，即使在降息期間，這一過程也可能會持續，儘管華爾街預計第二輪大選可能會在 2025 年初結束。

English highlighted that while the Fed has been content with letting this strategy quietly unfold, future adjustments could come under scrutiny.

英格利希強調，雖然聯準會一直滿足於讓這項策略悄悄展開，但未來的調整可能會受到審查。