唐納德·特朗普作為美國總統的第二個任期有望對“加密貨幣”行業產生影響

由於監管護欄的預期取消，唐納德·川普作為美國總統的第二個任期有望對「加密貨幣」行業產生影響

Donald Trump’s second term as U.S. president promises to herald impactful times for the ‘crypto’ sector, thanks to the expected removal of regulatory guardrails and legislators terrified of becoming the target of crypto campaign financing.

唐納德·川普作為美國總統的第二個任期有望預示「加密貨幣」行業將迎來一個具有影響力的時代，這要歸功於監管護欄的預期取消以及害怕成為加密貨幣競選融資目標的立法者。

Shortly before Trump’s electoral college victory over his opponent Kamala Harris was called by Fox News late Tuesday night, the BTC token posted a new all-time fiat value high of just over US$75,350, eclipsing its previous record of $73,800 set this March. The token briefly topped $76,000 for the first time on Wednesday and remains comfortably above $75,000 at the time of writing.

週二晚間，福克斯新聞報道了川普在選舉團選舉中擊敗對手卡瑪拉·哈里斯的消息，在此之前不久，BTC 代幣創下了歷史新高，略高於75,350 美元，超過了今年3 月份創下的73,800 美元的歷史紀錄。該代幣於週三首次短暫突破 76,000 美元，在撰寫本文時仍輕鬆保持在 75,000 美元以上。

Other prominent tokens were similarly elevated following Trump’s victory, buoyed by the thought of the first self-identified ‘crypto president’ entering the White House. And yet the WLFI token of Trump’s decentralized finance (DeFi) project, World Liberty Financial, didn’t get much of an election boost. The number of WLFI sold did finally top one billion after three weeks on the market (but that’s only 5% of the number they expected to sell on day one).

川普獲勝後，受第一位自稱為「加密貨幣總統」入主白宮的想法的提振，其他著名代幣也同樣上漲。然而，川普的去中心化金融（DeFi）計畫 World Liberty Financial 的 WLFI 代幣並沒有在選舉中獲得太多提振。上市三週後，WLFI 的銷售量終於突破了 10 億（但這只是他們第一天預計銷售的 5%）。

Trump’s party also retook the Senate and appears poised to retain control of the House of Representatives (counting remains ongoing). Coupled with a safe right-leaning majority on the U.S. Supreme Court and the ability to resume stacking federal courts with GOP stalwarts (and one or two lunatics), the sky’s the limit for what heights speculative digital assets might hit over the next four years.

川普的政黨也重新奪回了參議院，並似乎準備保留對眾議院的控制權（計票仍在進行中）。再加上美國最高法院中右傾的安全多數，以及共和黨堅定支持者（和一兩個瘋子）恢復聯邦法院的能力，投機性數字資產在未來四年內可能達到的高度是無限的。

In the short term, all eyes turn to the lame duck session of Congress that will get underway next week and extend through January until the newly elected members take their seats post-inauguration. Legislation governing stablecoin regulation—particularly so-called ‘payment stablecoins‘—is among the crypto-focused bills that could come up for debate and/or voting, along with the FIT21 market structure bill passed by the House this summer.

短期內，所有人的目光都集中在國會的跛腳鴨會議上，該會議將於下週開始，一直持續到一月份，直到新當選的議員在就職後就座。管理穩定幣監管的立法——特別是所謂的「支付穩定幣」——以及今年夏天眾議院通過的 FIT21 市場結構法案，都是可能進行辯論和/或投票的以加密貨幣為重點的法案之一。

Even if a crypto bill fails to pass in the lame duck, the odds are good for an early vote in 2025, particularly since Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) went down to defeat against challenger Bernie Moreno, a political neophyte who enjoyed a $40.1 million campaign financing boost from the pro-crypto Fairshake political action committee.

即使加密貨幣法案未能在跛腳鴨中獲得通過，在2025 年提前投票的可能性也很大，特別是自從參議員謝羅德·布朗(D-OH) 擊敗挑戰者伯尼·莫雷諾(Bernie Moreno)以來，伯尼·莫雷諾是一位享有盛譽的政治新手。

Brown is the current chair of the Senate Banking Committee and a noted crypto critic. With Brown out of the picture, Ranking Member Tim Scott (R-SC) will likely chair the committee going forward. Scott previously pledged to launch a digital asset subcommittee should the GOP prevail at the polls.

布朗是參議院銀行委員會現任主席，也是一位著名的加密貨幣批評家。隨著布朗的退出，高級會員蒂姆·斯科特（R-SC）可能會繼續擔任該委員會的主席。史考特先前承諾，如果共和黨在民調中獲勝，他將成立一個數位資產小組委員會。

However, crypto operators may pressure politicians to hold off on passing any of the existing bills because they now believe they can achieve vastly more permissive legislation and even ‘lighter touch’ regulation in the new Congress.

然而，加密貨幣運營商可能會向政客施壓，要求其推遲通過任何現有法案，因為他們現在相信他們可以在新國會中實現更加寬鬆的立法，甚至「寬鬆」的監管。

In July, Trump promised to “immediately appoint a [BTC] and crypto presidential advisory council” if he regained the presidency. This council’s mandate would be “to design transparent regulatory guidance for the benefit of the entire industry, and they will get it done in 100 days.” Trump assured crypto fans, “From now on, the rules will be written by people who love your industry, not hate your industry.” So, odds are that the sector will be keen to wait until January before the sausage-making begins in earnest.

7 月，川普承諾，如果重新當選總統，將「立即任命 [BTC] 和加密貨幣總統顧問委員會」。該委員會的任務是“為整個行業的利益設計透明的監管指導，他們將在 100 天內完成。”川普向加密貨幣粉絲保證，“從現在開始，規則將由熱愛你的行業的人來製定，而不是討厭你的行業。”因此，該行業很可能會等到一月份才真正開始生產香腸。

Tether breathing easySpeaking of someone who loves this industry, Trump transition team co-chair Howard Lutnick of Wall Street financial services firm Cantor Fitzgerald (NASDAQ: ZCFITX) is now sitting in the catbird seat. Lutnick, who allegedly custodies the U.S. Treasury bills allegedly owned by the issuers of the Tether (USDT) stablecoin, had already started lobbying legislators on crypto issues dear to Cantor’s heart long before Tuesday’s vote.

Tether 呼吸輕鬆說到熱愛這個行業的人，川普過渡團隊聯合主席、華爾街金融服務公司Cantor Fitzgerald（納斯達克股票代碼：ZCFITX）的霍華德·盧特尼克（Howard Lutnick）現在正坐在貓鳥的座位。盧特尼克據稱保管著據稱由 Tether (USDT) 穩定幣發行人擁有的美國國債，早在周二投票之前，他就已經開始就 Cantor 所關心的加密問題遊說立法者。

The question now becomes, does Lutnick have enough juice with Trump to convince him to convince legislators to craft new stablecoin legislation that doesn’t so explicitly elevate Tether’s rival Circle, the U.S.-based issuer of the USDC stablecoin, at Tether’s expense?

現在的問題是，盧特尼克是否有足夠的權力說服川普說服立法者制定新的穩定幣立法，該立法不會如此明確地提升Tether 的競爭對手Circle（美國USDC 穩定幣發行人）的地位，而犧牲Tether 的利益？

At the very least, Lutnick will almost certainly be able to convince Trump to pick someone to lead the Department of Justice who’s willing to (a) not seize Tether’s T-bills and (b) shelve the criminal indictments that are reportedly just waiting to be unsealed. To paraphrase Jesse Pinkman, Tether can’t keep getting away with it. And yet, it seems they will.

至少，盧特尼克幾乎肯定能夠說服川普挑選一個願意 (a) 不扣押 Tether 的國債和 (b) 擱置據報道正在等待的刑事起訴的人來領導司法部。用傑西·平克曼（Jesse Pinkman）的話來說，Tether 不可能一直逍遙法外。然而，他們似乎會這麼做。

Gensler’s countdown to extinctionTrump’s other pro-crypto pledges include blocking any plans by the Federal Reserve to pursue the launch of a central bank digital currency (CBDC). Fed Chair Jerome Powell swears the Fed has no CBDC plans, but recent Treasury documents that suggested CBDCs should replace stablecoins are likely being put into the fireplace as we speak.

川普的其他支持加密貨幣的承諾包括阻止聯準會推出央行數位貨幣（CBDC）的任何計畫。聯準會主席鮑威爾發誓聯準會沒有 CBDC 計劃，但就在我們發言之際，最近建議 CBDC 應該取代穩定幣的財政部文件可能會被付諸實施。