唐纳德·特朗普作为美国总统的第二个任期有望对“加密货币”行业产生影响

由于监管护栏的预期取消，唐纳德·特朗普作为美国总统的第二个任期有望对“加密货币”行业产生影响

Donald Trump’s second term as U.S. president promises to herald impactful times for the ‘crypto’ sector, thanks to the expected removal of regulatory guardrails and legislators terrified of becoming the target of crypto campaign financing.

唐纳德·特朗普作为美国总统的第二个任期有望预示“加密货币”行业将迎来一个具有影响力的时代，这要归功于监管护栏的预期取消以及害怕成为加密货币竞选融资目标的立法者。

Shortly before Trump’s electoral college victory over his opponent Kamala Harris was called by Fox News late Tuesday night, the BTC token posted a new all-time fiat value high of just over US$75,350, eclipsing its previous record of $73,800 set this March. The token briefly topped $76,000 for the first time on Wednesday and remains comfortably above $75,000 at the time of writing.

周二晚间，福克斯新闻报道了特朗普在选举团选举中击败对手卡玛拉·哈里斯的消息，在此之前不久，BTC 代币创下了历史新高，略高于 75,350 美元，超过了今年 3 月份创下的 73,800 美元的历史纪录。该代币于周三首次短暂突破 76,000 美元，在撰写本文时仍轻松保持在 75,000 美元以上。

Other prominent tokens were similarly elevated following Trump’s victory, buoyed by the thought of the first self-identified ‘crypto president’ entering the White House. And yet the WLFI token of Trump’s decentralized finance (DeFi) project, World Liberty Financial, didn’t get much of an election boost. The number of WLFI sold did finally top one billion after three weeks on the market (but that’s only 5% of the number they expected to sell on day one).

特朗普获胜后，受第一位自称为“加密货币总统”入主白宫的想法的提振，其他著名代币也同样上涨。然而，特朗普的去中心化金融（DeFi）项目 World Liberty Financial 的 WLFI 代币并没有在选举中获得太大提振。上市三周后，WLFI 的销量终于突破了 10 亿（但这只是他们第一天预计销量的 5%）。

Trump’s party also retook the Senate and appears poised to retain control of the House of Representatives (counting remains ongoing). Coupled with a safe right-leaning majority on the U.S. Supreme Court and the ability to resume stacking federal courts with GOP stalwarts (and one or two lunatics), the sky’s the limit for what heights speculative digital assets might hit over the next four years.

特朗普的政党还重新夺回了参议院，并似乎准备保留对众议院的控制权（计票仍在进行中）。再加上美国最高法院中右倾的安全多数，以及共和党坚定支持者（和一两个疯子）恢复联邦法院的能力，投机性数字资产在未来四年内可能达到的高度是无限的。

In the short term, all eyes turn to the lame duck session of Congress that will get underway next week and extend through January until the newly elected members take their seats post-inauguration. Legislation governing stablecoin regulation—particularly so-called ‘payment stablecoins‘—is among the crypto-focused bills that could come up for debate and/or voting, along with the FIT21 market structure bill passed by the House this summer.

短期内，所有人的目光都集中在国会的跛脚鸭会议上，该会议将于下周开始，一直持续到一月份，直到新当选的议员在就职后就座。管理稳定币监管的立法——特别是所谓的“支付稳定币”——以及今年夏天众议院通过的 FIT21 市场结构法案，都是可能进行辩论和/或投票的以加密货币为重点的法案之一。

Even if a crypto bill fails to pass in the lame duck, the odds are good for an early vote in 2025, particularly since Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) went down to defeat against challenger Bernie Moreno, a political neophyte who enjoyed a $40.1 million campaign financing boost from the pro-crypto Fairshake political action committee.

即使加密货币法案未能在跛脚鸭中获得通过，在 2025 年提前投票的可能性也很大，特别是自从参议员谢罗德·布朗 (D-OH) 击败挑战者伯尼·莫雷诺 (Bernie Moreno) 以来，伯尼·莫雷诺是一位享有盛誉的政治新手。支持加密货币的 Fairshake 政治行动委员会提供了 4010 万美元的竞选融资。

Brown is the current chair of the Senate Banking Committee and a noted crypto critic. With Brown out of the picture, Ranking Member Tim Scott (R-SC) will likely chair the committee going forward. Scott previously pledged to launch a digital asset subcommittee should the GOP prevail at the polls.

布朗是参议院银行委员会现任主席，也是著名的加密货币批评家。随着布朗的退出，高级会员蒂姆·斯科特（R-SC）可能会继续担任该委员会的主席。斯科特此前承诺，如果共和党在民意调查中获胜，他将成立一个数字资产小组委员会。

However, crypto operators may pressure politicians to hold off on passing any of the existing bills because they now believe they can achieve vastly more permissive legislation and even ‘lighter touch’ regulation in the new Congress.

然而，加密货币运营商可能会向政客施压，要求其推迟通过任何现有法案，因为他们现在相信他们可以在新国会中实现更加宽松的立法，甚至“宽松”的监管。

In July, Trump promised to “immediately appoint a [BTC] and crypto presidential advisory council” if he regained the presidency. This council’s mandate would be “to design transparent regulatory guidance for the benefit of the entire industry, and they will get it done in 100 days.” Trump assured crypto fans, “From now on, the rules will be written by people who love your industry, not hate your industry.” So, odds are that the sector will be keen to wait until January before the sausage-making begins in earnest.

7 月，特朗普承诺，如果重新当选总统，将“立即任命 [BTC] 和加密货币总统顾问委员会”。该委员会的任务是“为整个行业的利益设计透明的监管指导，他们将在 100 天内完成。”特朗普向加密货币粉丝保证，“从现在开始，规则将由热爱你的行业的人来制定，而不是讨厌你的行业。”因此，该行业很可能会等到一月份才真正开始生产香肠。

Tether breathing easySpeaking of someone who loves this industry, Trump transition team co-chair Howard Lutnick of Wall Street financial services firm Cantor Fitzgerald (NASDAQ: ZCFITX) is now sitting in the catbird seat. Lutnick, who allegedly custodies the U.S. Treasury bills allegedly owned by the issuers of the Tether (USDT) stablecoin, had already started lobbying legislators on crypto issues dear to Cantor’s heart long before Tuesday’s vote.

Tether 呼吸轻松 说到热爱这个行业的人，特朗普过渡团队联合主席、华尔街金融服务公司 Cantor Fitzgerald（纳斯达克股票代码：ZCFITX）的霍华德·卢特尼克（Howard Lutnick）现在正坐在猫鸟的座位上。卢特尼克据称保管着据称由 Tether (USDT) 稳定币发行人拥有的美国国债，早在周二投票之前，他就已经开始就 Cantor 所关心的加密问题游说立法者。

The question now becomes, does Lutnick have enough juice with Trump to convince him to convince legislators to craft new stablecoin legislation that doesn’t so explicitly elevate Tether’s rival Circle, the U.S.-based issuer of the USDC stablecoin, at Tether’s expense?

现在的问题是，卢特尼克是否有足够的权力说服特朗普说服立法者制定新的稳定币立法，该立法不会如此明确地提升 Tether 的竞争对手 Circle（美国 USDC 稳定币发行人）的地位，而牺牲 Tether 的利益？

At the very least, Lutnick will almost certainly be able to convince Trump to pick someone to lead the Department of Justice who’s willing to (a) not seize Tether’s T-bills and (b) shelve the criminal indictments that are reportedly just waiting to be unsealed. To paraphrase Jesse Pinkman, Tether can’t keep getting away with it. And yet, it seems they will.

至少，卢特尼克几乎肯定能够说服特朗普挑选一个愿意 (a) 不扣押 Tether 的国债和 (b) 搁置据报道正在等待的刑事起诉的人来领导司法部。未密封。用杰西·平克曼（Jesse Pinkman）的话来说，Tether 不可能一直逍遥法外。然而，他们似乎会这么做。

Gensler’s countdown to extinctionTrump’s other pro-crypto pledges include blocking any plans by the Federal Reserve to pursue the launch of a central bank digital currency (CBDC). Fed Chair Jerome Powell swears the Fed has no CBDC plans, but recent Treasury documents that suggested CBDCs should replace stablecoins are likely being put into the fireplace as we speak.

特朗普的其他支持加密货币的承诺包括阻止美联储推出央行数字货币（CBDC）的任何计划。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔发誓美联储没有 CBDC 计划，但就在我们发言之际，最近建议 CBDC 应该取代稳定币的财政部文件可能会被付诸实施。