以太坊（ETH）生态系统辩论肆虐，因为ETH/BTC比率达到了新的低点

以太坊（ETH）生态系统目前卷入有关其投资潜力的激烈辩论中，这是由ETH/BTC比率持续下降引发的

The Ethereum (ETH) ecosystem is currently engrossed in a heated debate concerning its investment potential, largely triggered by the persistent decline of the ETH/BTC ratio. This metric, which measures Ethereum’s relative price performance against Bitcoin, has recently hit a new low of 0.022.

以太坊（ETH）生态系统目前全神贯注于有关其投资潜力的激烈辩论，这在很大程度上是由ETH/BTC比率持续下降引发的。该指标衡量以太坊针对比特币的相对价格绩效，最近命中了0.022的新低点。

The ratio, having been in a downward spiral for over three years, has reignited discussions about Ethereum’s long-term value proposition and its role in the evolving cryptocurrency landscape.

该比例已经在下降了三年以上，已经重新激发了关于以太坊的长期价值主张及其在不断发展的加密货币景观中的作用的讨论。

This article delves into the specifics of the ETH/BTC ratio debate, exploring the arguments for and against Ethereum as an investment, and analyzes the potential implications for the future of the cryptocurrency.

本文深入研究了ETH/BTC比率辩论的细节，探讨了对以太坊的争论和反对以太坊的投资，并分析了对加密货币未来的潜在影响。

The ETH/BTC Ratio’s Alarming Decline: A Sign of Weakening Relative Strength

ETH/BTC比率令人震惊的下降：相对强度减弱的迹象

The ETH/BTC ratio’s persistent decline, extending for over three years, has raised concerns about Ethereum’s ability to maintain its relative strength against Bitcoin. As Galaxy Digital’s Head of Research, Alex Thorn, aptly summarized, “Ether is down 74% against Bitcoin since switching from proof of work to proof of stake.”

ETH/BTC比率的持续下降持续了三年以上，这引起了人们对以太坊维持其对比特币相对实力的能力的担忧。正如Galaxy Digital的研究负责人Alex Thorn恰当地总结说：“ Ether对比特币降低了74％，因为从工作证明转换为股份证明。”

This significant decline has fueled speculation about the underlying factors contributing to Ethereum’s underperformance. Some community members have even called for a return to proof-of-work (PoW), mirroring Bitcoin’s consensus mechanism, in the hope of bolstering Ethereum’s value.

这种重大下降引发了人们对促成以太坊表现不佳的基本因素的猜测。一些社区成员甚至呼吁重返工作证明（POW），以反映比特币的共识机制，以增强以太坊的价值。

However, shifting to PoW might not necessarily reverse the ETH/BTC ratio, considering the substantial changes in the cryptocurrency market since the merger to PoS.

但是，考虑到自加入POS以来的加密货币市场的实质变化，转移到POW可能不一定会扭转ETH/BTC的比率。

The Investment Debate: Is Ethereum Worth the Bet?

投资辩论：以太坊值得下注吗？

The ETH/BTC ratio’s decline is part of a broader narrative on the investment merits of Ethereum. Macro-focused hedge fund VC Lekker Fund founder Quinn Thompson maintains that ETH is “not worth the investment.”

ETH/BTC比率的下降是以太坊投资优点的更广泛叙述的一部分。以宏为重点的对冲基金VC Lekker Fund创始人Quinn Thompson坚持认为，ETH“不值得投资”。

In a recent interview with Blockware Solutions, Thompson highlighted several factors contributing to his bearish outlook, including declining network activity, user growth, and fees/revenues.

汤普森（Thompson）在最近对Blockware Solutions的采访中强调了几个因素，导致他看跌前景，包括网络活动，用户增长和费用/收入的下降。

While acknowledging Ethereum’s utility as a network, Thompson argues that its investment case is severely compromised by these declining metrics. He points to the network’s $225 billion market capitalization, which he believes is unsustainable given its current performance.

汤普森（Thompson）承认以太坊作为网络的实用性，但汤普森认为，这些量度下降的指标严重损害了其投资案例。他指出了该网络的2250亿美元市值，他认为鉴于其目前的业绩是不可持续的。

“If you look at the network activity, user growth, and the fact that they’re going down, and then you look at the market cap of $225 billion, to me, it doesn’t add up,” Thompson remarked.

汤普森说：“如果您查看网络活动，用户的增长以及它们正在下降的事实，然后您看待2250亿美元的市值，这并不会加起来。”

He further noted that the ETH/BTC ratio has seen a double-digit decline during the 2023-2024 bull cycle, suggesting that the situation could worsen during a bear cycle.

他进一步指出，ETH/BTC比率在2023-2024公牛周期中的两位数下降了两位数，这表明这种情况在熊周期内可能会恶化。

“We’re in a bull market, and we’ve seen an 80% decline in the ETH/BTC ratio from the December 2024 highs. So, if you translate that to a bear market, I think we could see triple-digit declines in the ETH/BTC ratio.”

“我们处于牛市，与2024年12月高点相比，ETH/BTC比率下降了80％。因此，如果您将其转化为熊市，我认为我们可以看到三位数的ETH/BTC比率下降。”

ETF Flows Show Stark Contrast Between BTC and ETH

ETF流在BTC和ETH之间显示出鲜明的对比度

The recent ETF flows have highlighted the diverging sentiment surrounding Bitcoin and Ethereum among institutional investors.

最近的ETF流量强调了机构投资者中围绕比特币和以太坊的不同情绪。

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded over $1 billion in inflows for 10 consecutive days (excluding one day), showcasing strong institutional demand for the world’s leading cryptocurrency.

美国现货比特币ETF连续10天（不包括一天）记录了超过10亿美元的流入，展示了对世界领先的加密货币的强烈机构需求。

Conversely, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs have experienced consistent outflows since February 20, with over $400 million in outflows recorded in March alone.

相反，自2月20日以来，美国现场以太坊ETF经历了一致的流出，仅3月就记录了超过4亿美元的外流。

This stark contrast in ETF flows underscores the prevailing negative sentiment among institutions, who are largely indifferent to the new products launched by Next New Fund and Bittrex Trust.

ETF流动的这种形成鲜明对比强调了机构之间普遍的负面情绪，这些情绪在很大程度上对下一个新基金和Bittrex Trust推出的新产品无动于衷。

Despite the bleak outlook, speculators on prediction markets remain optimistic about Ethereum’s long-term prospects.

尽管前景黯淡，但预测市场上的投机者仍然对以太坊的长期前景保持乐观。

On Polymarket, bettors have set a 2025 price target of $4,000 for ETH, with the highest volume of bets placed on this particular level.

在Polymarket上，Bettors将ETH的2025年目标目标定为4,000美元，其中最多的赌注放置在此特定水平上。

Option traders on Deribit are also anticipating a potential rise to $4,000 by September, albeit with a lower probability of 10%.

deribit的期权交易者还预计，到9月，尽管概率较低，但可能会增加4,000美元。

However, considering the current price of $1,870, down 54% from its December highs of $4,000, there’s a significant gap that needs to be closed.

但是，考虑到目前的1,870美元价格，比12月的高点4,000美元下降了54％，需要封闭一个很大的差距。

The Underlying Concerns: Network Activity and Layer 2 Impact

根本问题：网络活动和第2层影响

The debate surrounding Ethereum’s investment potential centers on concerns about its network activity and the impact of Layer 2 (L2) solutions.

围绕以太坊投资潜力的辩论集中在其网络活动和第2层（L2）解决方案的影响上。

The decline in transaction activity, user growth, and fees/revenues suggests that Ethereum’s utility as a platform for decentralized applications may be waning. This decline raises questions about Ethereum’s ability to attract and retain users and developers.

交易活动，用户增长和费用/收入的下降表明，以太坊作为分散应用程序平台的实用性可能正在减少。这种下降提出了有关以太坊吸引和留住用户和开发人员的能力的问题。

Moreover, the rise of L2 solutions, designed to scale Ethereum’s transaction capacity, has been cited as a potential factor contributing to the weakness in ETH.

此外，旨在扩展以太坊交易能力的L2解决方案的兴起已被认为是导致ETH弱点的潜在因素。

As L2s become increasingly efficient in handling transactions, they are effectively removing them from the Ethereum

随着L2在处理交易方面越来越有效，它们正在有效地将其从以太坊中移除