以太坊（ETH）生態系統辯論肆虐，因為ETH/BTC比率達到了新的低點

以太坊（ETH）生態系統目前捲入有關其投資潛力的激烈辯論中，這是由ETH/BTC比率持續下降引發的

The Ethereum (ETH) ecosystem is currently engrossed in a heated debate concerning its investment potential, largely triggered by the persistent decline of the ETH/BTC ratio. This metric, which measures Ethereum’s relative price performance against Bitcoin, has recently hit a new low of 0.022.

以太坊（ETH）生態系統目前全神貫注於有關其投資潛力的激烈辯論，這在很大程度上是由ETH/BTC比率持續下降引發的。該指標衡量以太坊針對比特幣的相對價格績效，最近命中了0.022的新低點。

The ratio, having been in a downward spiral for over three years, has reignited discussions about Ethereum’s long-term value proposition and its role in the evolving cryptocurrency landscape.

該比例已經在下降了三年以上，已經重新激發了關於以太坊的長期價值主張及其在不斷發展的加密貨幣景觀中的作用的討論。

This article delves into the specifics of the ETH/BTC ratio debate, exploring the arguments for and against Ethereum as an investment, and analyzes the potential implications for the future of the cryptocurrency.

本文深入研究了ETH/BTC比率辯論的細節，探討了對以太坊的爭論和反對以太坊的投資，並分析了對加密貨幣未來的潛在影響。

The ETH/BTC Ratio’s Alarming Decline: A Sign of Weakening Relative Strength

ETH/BTC比率令人震驚的下降：相對強度減弱的跡象

The ETH/BTC ratio’s persistent decline, extending for over three years, has raised concerns about Ethereum’s ability to maintain its relative strength against Bitcoin. As Galaxy Digital’s Head of Research, Alex Thorn, aptly summarized, “Ether is down 74% against Bitcoin since switching from proof of work to proof of stake.”

ETH/BTC比率的持續下降持續了三年以上，這引起了人們對以太坊維持其對比特幣相對實力的能力的擔憂。正如Galaxy Digital的研究負責人Alex Thorn恰當地總結說：“ Ether對比特幣降低了74％，因為從工作證明轉換為股份證明。”

This significant decline has fueled speculation about the underlying factors contributing to Ethereum’s underperformance. Some community members have even called for a return to proof-of-work (PoW), mirroring Bitcoin’s consensus mechanism, in the hope of bolstering Ethereum’s value.

這種重大下降引發了人們對促成以太坊表現不佳的基本因素的猜測。一些社區成員甚至呼籲重返工作證明（POW），以反映比特幣的共識機制，以增強以太坊的價值。

However, shifting to PoW might not necessarily reverse the ETH/BTC ratio, considering the substantial changes in the cryptocurrency market since the merger to PoS.

但是，考慮到自加入POS以來的加密貨幣市場的實質變化，轉移到POW可能不一定會扭轉ETH/BTC的比率。

The Investment Debate: Is Ethereum Worth the Bet?

投資辯論：以太坊值得下注嗎？

The ETH/BTC ratio’s decline is part of a broader narrative on the investment merits of Ethereum. Macro-focused hedge fund VC Lekker Fund founder Quinn Thompson maintains that ETH is “not worth the investment.”

ETH/BTC比率的下降是以太坊投資優點的更廣泛敘述的一部分。以宏為重點的對沖基金VC Lekker Fund創始人Quinn Thompson堅持認為，ETH“不值得投資”。

In a recent interview with Blockware Solutions, Thompson highlighted several factors contributing to his bearish outlook, including declining network activity, user growth, and fees/revenues.

湯普森（Thompson）在最近對Blockware Solutions的採訪中強調了幾個因素，導致他看跌前景，包括網絡活動，用戶增長和費用/收入的下降。

While acknowledging Ethereum’s utility as a network, Thompson argues that its investment case is severely compromised by these declining metrics. He points to the network’s $225 billion market capitalization, which he believes is unsustainable given its current performance.

湯普森（Thompson）承認以太坊作為網絡的實用性，但湯普森認為，這些量度下降的指標嚴重損害了其投資案例。他指出了該網絡的2250億美元市值，他認為鑑於其目前的業績是不可持續的。

“If you look at the network activity, user growth, and the fact that they’re going down, and then you look at the market cap of $225 billion, to me, it doesn’t add up,” Thompson remarked.

湯普森說：“如果您查看網絡活動，用戶的增長以及它們正在下降的事實，然後您看待2250億美元的市值，這並不會加起來。”

He further noted that the ETH/BTC ratio has seen a double-digit decline during the 2023-2024 bull cycle, suggesting that the situation could worsen during a bear cycle.

他進一步指出，ETH/BTC比率在2023-2024公牛週期中的兩位數下降了兩位數，這表明這種情況在熊週期內可能會惡化。

“We’re in a bull market, and we’ve seen an 80% decline in the ETH/BTC ratio from the December 2024 highs. So, if you translate that to a bear market, I think we could see triple-digit declines in the ETH/BTC ratio.”

“我們處於牛市，與2024年12月高點相比，ETH/BTC比率下降了80％。因此，如果您將其轉化為熊市，我認為我們可以看到三位數的ETH/BTC比率下降。”

ETF Flows Show Stark Contrast Between BTC and ETH

ETF流在BTC和ETH之間顯示出鮮明的對比度

The recent ETF flows have highlighted the diverging sentiment surrounding Bitcoin and Ethereum among institutional investors.

最近的ETF流量強調了機構投資者中圍繞比特幣和以太坊的不同情緒。

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded over $1 billion in inflows for 10 consecutive days (excluding one day), showcasing strong institutional demand for the world’s leading cryptocurrency.

美國現貨比特幣ETF連續10天（不包括一天）記錄了超過10億美元的流入，展示了對世界領先的加密貨幣的強烈機構需求。

Conversely, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs have experienced consistent outflows since February 20, with over $400 million in outflows recorded in March alone.

相反，自2月20日以來，美國現場以太坊ETF經歷了一致的流出，僅3月就記錄了超過4億美元的外流。

This stark contrast in ETF flows underscores the prevailing negative sentiment among institutions, who are largely indifferent to the new products launched by Next New Fund and Bittrex Trust.

ETF流動的這種形成鮮明對比強調了機構之間普遍的負面情緒，這些情緒在很大程度上對下一個新基金和Bittrex Trust推出的新產品無動於衷。

Despite the bleak outlook, speculators on prediction markets remain optimistic about Ethereum’s long-term prospects.

儘管前景黯淡，但預測市場上的投機者仍然對以太坊的長期前景保持樂觀。

On Polymarket, bettors have set a 2025 price target of $4,000 for ETH, with the highest volume of bets placed on this particular level.

在Polymarket上，Bettors將ETH的2025年目標目標定為4,000美元，其中最多的賭注放置在此特定水平上。

Option traders on Deribit are also anticipating a potential rise to $4,000 by September, albeit with a lower probability of 10%.

deribit的期權交易者還預計，到9月，儘管概率較低，但可能會增加4,000美元。

However, considering the current price of $1,870, down 54% from its December highs of $4,000, there’s a significant gap that needs to be closed.

但是，考慮到目前的1,870美元價格，比12月的高點4,000美元下降了54％，需要封閉一個很大的差距。

The Underlying Concerns: Network Activity and Layer 2 Impact

根本問題：網絡活動和第2層影響

The debate surrounding Ethereum’s investment potential centers on concerns about its network activity and the impact of Layer 2 (L2) solutions.

圍繞以太坊投資潛力的辯論集中在其網絡活動和第2層（L2）解決方案的影響上。

The decline in transaction activity, user growth, and fees/revenues suggests that Ethereum’s utility as a platform for decentralized applications may be waning. This decline raises questions about Ethereum’s ability to attract and retain users and developers.

交易活動，用戶增長和費用/收入的下降表明，以太坊作為分散應用程序平台的實用性可能正在減少。這種下降提出了有關以太坊吸引和留住用戶和開發人員的能力的問題。

Moreover, the rise of L2 solutions, designed to scale Ethereum’s transaction capacity, has been cited as a potential factor contributing to the weakness in ETH.

此外，旨在擴展以太坊交易能力的L2解決方案的興起已被認為是導致ETH弱點的潛在因素。

As L2s become increasingly efficient in handling transactions, they are effectively removing them from the Ethereum

隨著L2在處理交易方面越來越有效，它們正在有效地將其從以太坊中移除