以太坊（ETH）是一项投资吗？

在快速发展的加密货币世界中，很少有资产像以太坊一样受到关注。作为市值的第二大加密货币，以太坊长期以来一直被视为区块链生态系统的基石，为分散的金融（DEFI），智能合约和许多分散应用程序（DAPPS）提供动力。

In the dynamic realm of cryptocurrency, few assets have commanded as much attention as Ethereum. Standing as the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, Ethereum has long been recognized as a cornerstone of the blockchain ecosystem, underpinning decentralized finance (DeFi), smart contracts, and a diverse array of decentralized applications (dApps). However, the proposition of Ethereum as a viable long-term investment strategy has come under recent scrutiny, with prominent figures like Quinn Thompson, the Chief Investment Officer (CIO) at Lekker Capital, raising concerns about its future potential.

在加密货币的动态领域中，很少有资产像以太坊那样引起人们的关注。以市场资本化为第二大加密货币，以太坊长期以来一直被认为是区块链生态系统的基石，基于分散融资（DEFI），智能合约和各种分散式应用程序（DAPPS）的基础。但是，以太坊作为可行的长期投资策略的主张受到了最近的审查，例如Lekker Capital首席投资官Quinn Thompson等重要人物引起了人们对其未来潜力的担忧。

During an interview with Ben Armstrong, host of the popular YouTube channel "Armstrong and Friends," Thompson boldly asserted that Ethereum is "totally dead" as an investment vehicle. He cited a slew of concerning metrics such as falling transaction activity, slowing user growth, and diminishing revenue from transaction fees. These comments have ignited a debate in the crypto community about whether Ethereum’s investment prospects are dwindling.

汤普森在接受YouTube频道“ Armstrong and Friends”的主持人Ben Armstrong的采访中，大胆地断言以太坊是“完全死亡”的投资工具。他列举了一系列有关指标，例如交易活动下降，用户增长减慢以及交易费用减少收入。这些评论激发了加密货币社区的辩论，内容涉及以太坊的投资前景是否正在减少。

As further backed by on-chain data, the question must be asked: Is it time to dismiss Ethereum altogether, or does the network still hold potential for investors? This article delves into the factors surrounding Ethereum’s current performance, including on-chain metrics, Layer 2 (L2) solutions, and the Ethereum tokenomics model. Through a comprehensive analysis of the available data and a variety of perspectives, we will attempt to answer the pressing question: Does Ethereum still represent a compelling investment opportunity, or has its potential finally plateaued?

在进一步的链接数据的支持下，必须提出问题：是时候完全驳回以太坊的时候了，还是该网络仍然具有投资者的潜力？本文深入研究了以太坊当前性能的因素，包括链指标，第2层（L2）解决方案和以太坊的标记模型。通过对可用数据和各种观点的全面分析，我们将尝试回答以下问题：以太坊仍然代表着令人信服的投资机会，还是最终具有其潜力？

The Current State of Ethereum: A Slowdown in Network Usage

以太坊的当前状态：网络使用率放缓

Ethereum’s growth has been nothing short of extraordinary, yet recent data paints a picture of stagnation. According to statistics from The Block, Ethereum’s on-chain metrics have shown signs of significant slowdown.

以太坊的增长无非是非凡的，但最近的数据描绘了停滞的图片。根据该区块的统计数据，以太坊的链链指标显示出明显放缓的迹象。

Notably, daily transaction volume, using a seven-day moving average (7DMA), has leveled off from its peak in 2021. This stagnation in network activity is concerning, as transaction volume is often seen as a key indicator of the health and usage of any blockchain network.

值得注意的是，使用7天移动平均线（7DMA）的每日交易量已从2021年的峰值开始。网络活动中的停滞与众不同，因为交易量通常被视为任何区块链网络的健康和使用的关键指标。

Similarly, the number of active addresses on Ethereum’s network has stalled. While the number of active users is still substantial, the growth rate has noticeably slowed, casting doubt on Ethereum’s ability to continue expanding its user base at the rate it once did. This trend is further compounded by new address creation, which has failed to keep pace with Ethereum’s colossal $225 billion valuation. With fewer new users joining the Ethereum ecosystem, some market participants are beginning to question whether Ethereum’s foundational network growth has hit a ceiling.

同样，以太坊网络上的活动地址数量也停滞不前。尽管活跃用户的数量仍然很大，但增长率显着放缓，对以太坊继续以曾经的速度扩大其用户群的能力引起了疑问。新的地址创建创建进一步加剧了这种趋势，这种创建未能与以太坊的巨额估值保持同步。随着新用户加入以太坊生态系统，一些市场参与者开始质疑以太坊的基础网络增长是否遇到了上限。

Ethereum, once a leader in terms of decentralized applications and smart contract development, seems to be facing a hard truth: its growth in both transaction volume and user adoption is not enough to support the enormous market valuation it holds. In the face of this, the question of whether Ethereum can sustain its value or if it will ultimately stagnate becomes increasingly urgent.

以太坊曾经是分散应用程序和智能合同开发方面的领导者，似乎面临着一个艰难的事实：其在交易量和用户采用方面的增长不足以支持其持有的巨大市场估值。面对这一点，以太坊是否可以维持其价值或最终停滞的问题变得越来越紧迫。

Layer 2 Solutions: Catalyst or Hindrance to Ethereum’s Long-Term Value?

第2层解决方案：催化剂或障碍以太坊的长期价值？

Layer 2 (L2) solutions have been touted as a promising answer to Ethereum’s scalability issues, and many see them as a vital part of the network’s evolution. L2 solutions, which are protocols built on top of Ethereum’s main chain, aim to offload some of the transaction load, providing faster and cheaper transactions while still relying on Ethereum for security.

第2层（L2）解决方案已被吹捧为对以太坊可伸缩性问题的有希望的答案，许多人将其视为网络发展的重要组成部分。 L2解决方案是建立在以太坊主链之上的协议，旨在卸载一些交易负载，提供更快，更便宜的交易，同时仍依靠以太坊来获得安全性。

However, not all stakeholders in the Ethereum ecosystem view L2 solutions as beneficial to Ethereum’s long-term value. Nic Carter, the founder of Castle Island Ventures, argues that Layer 2 solutions could be siphoning off value from Ethereum’s primary chain. By processing transactions off-chain or at a reduced cost, L2 solutions may be diminishing Ethereum’s revenue from transaction fees, which could ultimately stifle the growth of ETH itself.

但是，并非所有以太坊生态系统中的利益相关者都将L2解决方案视为对以太坊的长期价值的有益。 Castle Island Ventures的创始人Nic Carter认为，第2层解决方案可以从以太坊的主要链中汲取价值。通过处理交易后的链或成本降低，L2解决方案可能会减少以太坊从交易费用中的收入，这最终可能会扼杀ETH本身的增长。

Carter’s argument centers around the idea that Ethereum’s value is tied not just to its technological prowess but also to its role as the settlement layer for decentralized applications. If Ethereum is no longer the primary beneficiary of the ecosystem it supports, there may be less incentive for investors to hold ETH, which would result in reduced demand for the cryptocurrency.

卡特的论点围绕着以太坊的价值不仅与其技术实力相关的思想，而且还与其作为分散应用程序的定居层的作用有关。如果以太坊不再是其支持的生态系统的主要受益者，那么投资者持有ETH的动机可能会减少，这将导致对加密货币的需求减少。

On the other hand, Omid Malekan, an academic at Columbia Business School, takes a more optimistic stance on L2 solutions. Malekan contends that L2 solutions are essential for Ethereum’s scalability and that their existence should not be viewed as a threat to Ethereum’s long-term investment value. He argues that Ethereum’s primary chain still maintains its crucial role in ensuring the security and decentralization of L2s, and that far from undermining Ethereum, L2 solutions could ultimately enhance the network’s overall utility by improving scalability without compromising its core values.

另一方面，哥伦比亚商学院的学者Omid Malekan对L2解决方案采取了更加乐观的立场。 Malekan认为L2解决方案对于以太坊的可伸缩性至关重要，并且不应将其存在视为对以太坊的长期投资价值的威胁。他认为，以太坊的主要链仍然在确保L2的安全性和分散性方面保持着至关重要的作用，而远离以太坊的他，L2解决方案最终可以通过提高扩展性来提高网络的整体实用性，而不会损害其核心价值。

Thus, the debate about the role of Layer 2 solutions is pivotal in understanding the future of Ethereum. While L2 solutions may help alleviate some of

因此，关于第2层解决方案作用的争论在理解以太坊的未来方面至关重要。虽然L2解决方案可能有助于减轻一些