以太坊（ETH）是一項投資嗎？

在快速發展的加密貨幣世界中，很少有資產像以太坊一樣受到關注。作為市值的第二大加密貨幣，以太坊長期以來一直被視為區塊鏈生態系統的基石，為分散的金融（DEFI），智能合約和許多分散應用程序（DAPPS）提供動力。

In the dynamic realm of cryptocurrency, few assets have commanded as much attention as Ethereum. Standing as the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, Ethereum has long been recognized as a cornerstone of the blockchain ecosystem, underpinning decentralized finance (DeFi), smart contracts, and a diverse array of decentralized applications (dApps). However, the proposition of Ethereum as a viable long-term investment strategy has come under recent scrutiny, with prominent figures like Quinn Thompson, the Chief Investment Officer (CIO) at Lekker Capital, raising concerns about its future potential.

在加密貨幣的動態領域中，很少有資產像以太坊那樣引起人們的關注。以市場資本化為第二大加密貨幣，以太坊長期以來一直被認為是區塊鏈生態系統的基石，基於分散融資（DEFI），智能合約和各種分散式應用程序（DAPPS）的基礎。但是，以太坊作為可行的長期投資策略的主張受到了最近的審查，例如Lekker Capital首席投資官Quinn Thompson等重要人物引起了人們對其未來潛力的擔憂。

During an interview with Ben Armstrong, host of the popular YouTube channel "Armstrong and Friends," Thompson boldly asserted that Ethereum is "totally dead" as an investment vehicle. He cited a slew of concerning metrics such as falling transaction activity, slowing user growth, and diminishing revenue from transaction fees. These comments have ignited a debate in the crypto community about whether Ethereum’s investment prospects are dwindling.

湯普森在接受YouTube頻道“ Armstrong and Friends”的主持人Ben Armstrong的採訪中，大膽地斷言以太坊是“完全死亡”的投資工具。他列舉了一系列有關指標，例如交易活動下降，用戶增長減慢以及交易費用減少收入。這些評論激發了加密貨幣社區的辯論，內容涉及以太坊的投資前景是否正在減少。

As further backed by on-chain data, the question must be asked: Is it time to dismiss Ethereum altogether, or does the network still hold potential for investors? This article delves into the factors surrounding Ethereum’s current performance, including on-chain metrics, Layer 2 (L2) solutions, and the Ethereum tokenomics model. Through a comprehensive analysis of the available data and a variety of perspectives, we will attempt to answer the pressing question: Does Ethereum still represent a compelling investment opportunity, or has its potential finally plateaued?

在進一步的鏈接數據的支持下，必須提出問題：是時候完全駁回以太坊的時候了，還是該網絡仍然具有投資者的潛力？本文深入研究了以太坊當前性能的因素，包括鏈指標，第2層（L2）解決方案和以太坊的標記模型。通過對可用數據和各種觀點的全面分析，我們將嘗試回答以下問題：以太坊仍然代表著令人信服的投資機會，還是最終具有其潛力？

The Current State of Ethereum: A Slowdown in Network Usage

以太坊的當前狀態：網絡使用率放緩

Ethereum’s growth has been nothing short of extraordinary, yet recent data paints a picture of stagnation. According to statistics from The Block, Ethereum’s on-chain metrics have shown signs of significant slowdown.

以太坊的增長無非是非凡的，但最近的數據描繪了停滯的圖片。根據該區塊的統計數據，以太坊的鍊鍊指標顯示出明顯放緩的跡象。

Notably, daily transaction volume, using a seven-day moving average (7DMA), has leveled off from its peak in 2021. This stagnation in network activity is concerning, as transaction volume is often seen as a key indicator of the health and usage of any blockchain network.

值得注意的是，使用7天移動平均線（7DMA）的每日交易量已從2021年的峰值開始。網絡活動中的停滯與眾不同，因為交易量通常被視為任何區塊鍊網絡的健康和使用的關鍵指標。

Similarly, the number of active addresses on Ethereum’s network has stalled. While the number of active users is still substantial, the growth rate has noticeably slowed, casting doubt on Ethereum’s ability to continue expanding its user base at the rate it once did. This trend is further compounded by new address creation, which has failed to keep pace with Ethereum’s colossal $225 billion valuation. With fewer new users joining the Ethereum ecosystem, some market participants are beginning to question whether Ethereum’s foundational network growth has hit a ceiling.

同樣，以太坊網絡上的活動地址數量也停滯不前。儘管活躍用戶的數量仍然很大，但增長率顯著放緩，對以太坊繼續以曾經的速度擴大其用戶群的能力引起了疑問。新的地址創建創建進一步加劇了這種趨勢，這種創建未能與以太坊的巨額估值保持同步。隨著新用戶加入以太坊生態系統，一些市場參與者開始質疑以太坊的基礎網絡增長是否遇到了上限。

Ethereum, once a leader in terms of decentralized applications and smart contract development, seems to be facing a hard truth: its growth in both transaction volume and user adoption is not enough to support the enormous market valuation it holds. In the face of this, the question of whether Ethereum can sustain its value or if it will ultimately stagnate becomes increasingly urgent.

以太坊曾經是分散應用程序和智能合同開發方面的領導者，似乎面臨著一個艱難的事實：其在交易量和用戶採用方面的增長不足以支持其持有的巨大市場估值。面對這一點，以太坊是否可以維持其價值或最終停滯的問題變得越來越緊迫。

Layer 2 Solutions: Catalyst or Hindrance to Ethereum’s Long-Term Value?

第2層解決方案：催化劑或障礙以太坊的長期價值？

Layer 2 (L2) solutions have been touted as a promising answer to Ethereum’s scalability issues, and many see them as a vital part of the network’s evolution. L2 solutions, which are protocols built on top of Ethereum’s main chain, aim to offload some of the transaction load, providing faster and cheaper transactions while still relying on Ethereum for security.

第2層（L2）解決方案已被吹捧為對以太坊可伸縮性問題的有希望的答案，許多人將其視為網絡發展的重要組成部分。 L2解決方案是建立在以太坊主鏈之上的協議，旨在卸載一些交易負載，提供更快，更便宜的交易，同時仍依靠以太坊來獲得安全性。

However, not all stakeholders in the Ethereum ecosystem view L2 solutions as beneficial to Ethereum’s long-term value. Nic Carter, the founder of Castle Island Ventures, argues that Layer 2 solutions could be siphoning off value from Ethereum’s primary chain. By processing transactions off-chain or at a reduced cost, L2 solutions may be diminishing Ethereum’s revenue from transaction fees, which could ultimately stifle the growth of ETH itself.

但是，並非所有以太坊生態系統中的利益相關者都將L2解決方案視為對以太坊的長期價值的有益。 Castle Island Ventures的創始人Nic Carter認為，第2層解決方案可以從以太坊的主要鏈中汲取價值。通過處理交易後的鍊或成本降低，L2解決方案可能會減少以太坊從交易費用中的收入，這最終可能會扼殺ETH本身的增長。

Carter’s argument centers around the idea that Ethereum’s value is tied not just to its technological prowess but also to its role as the settlement layer for decentralized applications. If Ethereum is no longer the primary beneficiary of the ecosystem it supports, there may be less incentive for investors to hold ETH, which would result in reduced demand for the cryptocurrency.

卡特的論點圍繞著以太坊的價值不僅與其技術實力相關的思想，而且還與其作為分散應用程序的定居層的作用有關。如果以太坊不再是其支持的生態系統的主要受益者，那麼投資者持有ETH的動機可能會減少，這將導致對加密貨幣的需求減少。

On the other hand, Omid Malekan, an academic at Columbia Business School, takes a more optimistic stance on L2 solutions. Malekan contends that L2 solutions are essential for Ethereum’s scalability and that their existence should not be viewed as a threat to Ethereum’s long-term investment value. He argues that Ethereum’s primary chain still maintains its crucial role in ensuring the security and decentralization of L2s, and that far from undermining Ethereum, L2 solutions could ultimately enhance the network’s overall utility by improving scalability without compromising its core values.

另一方面，哥倫比亞商學院的學者Omid Malekan對L2解決方案採取了更加樂觀的立場。 Malekan認為L2解決方案對於以太坊的可伸縮性至關重要，並且不應將其存在視為對以太坊的長期投資價值的威脅。他認為，以太坊的主要鏈仍然在確保L2的安全性和分散性方面保持著至關重要的作用，而遠離以太坊的他，L2解決方案最終可以通過提高擴展性來提高網絡的整體實用性，而不會損害其核心價值。

Thus, the debate about the role of Layer 2 solutions is pivotal in understanding the future of Ethereum. While L2 solutions may help alleviate some of

因此，關於第2層解決方案作用的爭論在理解以太坊的未來方面至關重要。雖然L2解決方案可能有助於減輕一些