Ethena 的 USDe 注定会超越 DAI 成为领先的去中心化稳定币

加密货币KOL

Ethena's USDe is quickly becoming a favorite among crypto enthusiasts, thanks to its unique ability to generate income for stakers. But what exactly makes USDe so special, and why is it believed to be destined to surpass DAI as the leading decentralized stablecoin? In this article, we'll delve into the current stablecoin landscape, examine USDe's token economics, and conduct a valuation and scenario analysis of ENA to uncover the possibilities.

Ethena 的 USDe 因其独特的为质押者创造收入的能力而迅速成为加密货币爱好者的最爱。但到底是什么让 USDe 如此特别，为什么它被认为注定会超越 DAI，成为领先的去中心化稳定币？在本文中，我们将深入研究当前的稳定币格局，研究 USDe 的代币经济学，并对 ENA 进行估值和场景分析以揭示可能性。

The Present Stablecoin Landscape

目前的稳定币格局

Several key trends are unfolding within the stablecoin realm:

稳定币领域正在呈现几个主要趋势：

- The market share of decentralized stablecoins is on the rise, increasing from 4.1% at the start of the year to 5% in November.

- 去中心化稳定币的市场份额不断上升，从年初的 4.1% 增加到 11 月份的 5%。

- Income-generating stablecoins are experiencing a surge in popularity, with their market share expanding from 0.1% at the beginning of the year to 2.1% in November.

- 创收稳定币的受欢迎程度激增，其市场份额从年初的 0.1% 扩大到 11 月的 2.1%。

While these shifts may appear incremental, they are significant considering the overall 40% growth experienced by stablecoins this year, reaching a total market capitalization of $183 billion.

虽然这些转变可能看起来是渐进的，但考虑到稳定币今年整体增长了 40%，总市值达到 1830 亿美元，这些转变意义重大。

As both a decentralized and income-generating stablecoin, USDe has witnessed remarkable growth, surging from $85 million at the start of the year to $4 billion at present. With the possibility of Trump winning the election and stablecoin regulations expected to pass this year, it's not unreasonable to anticipate the market capitalization of stablecoins reaching $1 trillion by the end of the century. This presents vast growth opportunities for Ethena.

作为一种去中心化且创收的稳定币，USDe 见证了显着的增长，从年初的 8500 万美元飙升至目前的 40 亿美元。鉴于特朗普赢得大选的可能性以及稳定币法规预计将在今年通过，预计到本世纪末稳定币市值将达到 1 万亿美元并非没有道理。这为 Ethena 提供了巨大的增长机会。

Token Economics of USDe

USDe 的通证经济

The token economics of USDe can be categorized into two primary components:

USDe 的代币经济学可以分为两个主要组成部分：

- Returns to USDe stakers: These returns are determined based on the total supply of USDe, the staking ratio, and the returns generated by the Ethena protocol. According to data, USDe stakers have enjoyed an average yield of 19.4% thus far this year, with approximately 45% of USDe being staked.

- USDe 质押者的回报：这些回报是根据 USDe 的总供应量、质押比率以及 Ethena 协议产生的回报来确定的。数据显示，今年迄今为止，USDe 质押者的平均收益率为 19.4%，约 45% 的 USDe 被质押。

- The diagram below illustrates the payment of over $100 million in returns to USDe stakers alone:

- 下图显示仅 USDe 质押者就获得了超过 1 亿美元的回报：

- Collateral yield: When users mint USDe, they deposit one of several other stablecoins. Ethena subsequently converts these stablecoins into one of several types of collateral, which are then sold short using futures. In this way, Ethena maintains collateral delta neutrality while earning both the basis and funding rates.

- 抵押品收益率：当用户铸造 USDe 时，他们会存入其他几种稳定币之一。 Ethena 随后将这些稳定币转换为几种抵押品之一，然后使用期货卖空。通过这种方式，Ethena 可以保持抵押品 Delta 中性，同时赚取基础利率和融资利率。

- Assuming a specific collateral breakdown (shown below) and obtaining the yield from Ethena's dashboard (https://app.ethena.fi/dashboards/hedging/BTC), we can derive the returns obtained by the protocol:

- 假设特定的抵押品细分（如下所示）并从 Ethena 的仪表板（https://app.ethena.fi/dashboards/hedging/BTC）获取收益，我们可以得出该协议获得的收益：

Combining these two aspects, we can arrive at Ethena's total profit and loss (PNL): an estimated annualized profit of $62 million:

结合这两个方面，我们可以得出Ethena的总损益（PNL）：预计年化利润为6200万美元：

This brings ENA's MC/revenue multiple to 26 times, making it more attractive than several other leading DeFi projects (note that this is not based on FDV; token unlocks present a significant resistance for the project).

这使得 ENA 的 MC/收入倍数达到 26 倍，使其比其他几个领先的 DeFi 项目更具吸引力（注意，这不是基于 FDV；代币解锁对该项目构成了重大阻力）。

Valuation of ENA: A Scenario Analysis

ENA 的估值：情景分析

Drawing upon the above, we can make certain assumptions to estimate the valuation of ENA by the end of next year. These assumptions will serve as the foundation for the upcoming analysis.

综上所述，我们可以做出一定的假设来估算明年底ENA的估值。这些假设将作为即将进行的分析的基础。

It's worth noting that Ethena's business model relies on a certain proportion of USDe not being staked. This enables them to pay returns to USDe investors that exceed the returns earned from collateral, while still maintaining an operating revenue margin of $0.04 per $1 USDe market value.

值得注意的是，Ethena 的商业模式依赖于一定比例的 USDe 不被质押。这使他们能够向 USDe 投资者支付超过抵押品赚取的回报，同时仍保持每 1 USDe 市值 0.04 美元的营业收入利润率。

Note: Collateral yield is based on the collateral breakdown shown above and applied over the year. Actual numbers may vary slightly.

注：抵押品收益率基于上面显示的抵押品细目并应用于全年。实际数字可能略有不同。

Ethena's growth is dictated by two metrics:

Ethena 的增长由两个指标决定：

- Growth of total market capitalization of stablecoins

- 稳定币总市值的增长

- USDe's market share

- USDe的市场份额

The baseline scenario is highlighted in blue: USDe's market share doubles, and stablecoins grow by 75% over the next year. The author considers this estimate quite conservative, and the bullish scenario (orange) is also very reasonable: USDe grows to a 5% market share, with total stablecoins growing by 150%, bringing USDe's market capitalization close to $23 billion. Green represents the bearish scenario, where USDe's market share does not grow, while total stable market capitalization increases slightly by 25%.

基线情景以蓝色突出显示：USDe 的市场份额翻倍，稳定币在明年增长 75%。作者认为这个估计相当保守，看涨情景（橙色）也非常合理：USDe 的市场份额增长到 5%，稳定币总量增长 150%，使 USDe 的市值接近 230 亿美元。绿色代表看跌情景，其中 USDe 的市场份额没有增长，而稳定总市值小幅增长 25%。

Based on the above assumptions of a $0.04 income margin, ENA's income situation for next year is as follows:

基于上述0.04美元收入差额的假设，ENA明年的收入情况如下：

Using a hypothetical 30 times revenue multiple, the market capitalization of ENA can be derived in the following table. Please note, the author expects 2025 to be a very strong year for crypto assets, with valuations exceeding fundamentals. 30 times is only slightly higher than ENA's current 26 times, so the potential upside in the following scenario analysis is much higher:

使用假设的 30 倍收入倍数，可以在下表中得出 ENA 的市值。请注意，作者预计 2025 年对于加密资产来说将是非常强劲的一年，估值将超过基本面。 30倍仅略高于ENA当前的26倍，因此以下情景分析中的潜在上涨空间要高得多：