Ethena 的 USDe 注定會超越 DAI 成為領先的去中心化穩定幣

加密貨幣KOL

Ethena's USDe is quickly becoming a favorite among crypto enthusiasts, thanks to its unique ability to generate income for stakers. But what exactly makes USDe so special, and why is it believed to be destined to surpass DAI as the leading decentralized stablecoin? In this article, we'll delve into the current stablecoin landscape, examine USDe's token economics, and conduct a valuation and scenario analysis of ENA to uncover the possibilities.

Ethena 的 USDe 因其獨特的為質押者創造收入的能力而迅速成為加密貨幣愛好者的最愛。但到底是什麼讓 USDe 如此特別，為什麼它被認為注定會超越 DAI，成為領先的去中心化穩定幣？在本文中，我們將深入研究當前的穩定幣格局，研究 USDe 的代幣經濟學，並對 ENA 進行估值和場景分析以揭示可能性。

The Present Stablecoin Landscape

目前的穩定幣格局

Several key trends are unfolding within the stablecoin realm:

穩定幣領域正在呈現幾個主要趨勢：

- The market share of decentralized stablecoins is on the rise, increasing from 4.1% at the start of the year to 5% in November.

- 去中心化穩定幣的市佔率不斷上升，從年初的 4.1% 增加到 11 月的 5%。

- Income-generating stablecoins are experiencing a surge in popularity, with their market share expanding from 0.1% at the beginning of the year to 2.1% in November.

- 創收穩定幣的受歡迎程度激增，其市佔率從年初的 0.1% 擴大到 11 月的 2.1%。

While these shifts may appear incremental, they are significant considering the overall 40% growth experienced by stablecoins this year, reaching a total market capitalization of $183 billion.

雖然這些轉變看起來是漸進的，但考慮到穩定幣今年整體成長了 40%，總市值達到 1,830 億美元，這些轉變意義重大。

As both a decentralized and income-generating stablecoin, USDe has witnessed remarkable growth, surging from $85 million at the start of the year to $4 billion at present. With the possibility of Trump winning the election and stablecoin regulations expected to pass this year, it's not unreasonable to anticipate the market capitalization of stablecoins reaching $1 trillion by the end of the century. This presents vast growth opportunities for Ethena.

作為一種去中心化且創造收入的穩定幣，USDe 見證了顯著的成長，從年初的 8,500 萬美元飆升至目前的 40 億美元。鑑於川普贏得大選的可能性以及穩定幣法規預計將在今年通過，預計到本世紀末穩定幣市值將達到 1 兆美元並非沒有道理。這為 Ethena 提供了巨大的成長機會。

Token Economics of USDe

USDe 的通證經濟

The token economics of USDe can be categorized into two primary components:

USDe 的代幣經濟學可以分為兩個主要組成部分：

- Returns to USDe stakers: These returns are determined based on the total supply of USDe, the staking ratio, and the returns generated by the Ethena protocol. According to data, USDe stakers have enjoyed an average yield of 19.4% thus far this year, with approximately 45% of USDe being staked.

- USDe 質押者的回報：這些回報是根據 USDe 的總供應量、質押比率以及 Ethena 協議產生的回報來確定的。數據顯示，今年迄今為止，USDe 質押者的平均收益率為 19.4%，約 45% 的 USDe 被質押。

- The diagram below illustrates the payment of over $100 million in returns to USDe stakers alone:

- 下圖顯示僅 USDe 質押者就獲得了超過 1 億美元的回報：

- Collateral yield: When users mint USDe, they deposit one of several other stablecoins. Ethena subsequently converts these stablecoins into one of several types of collateral, which are then sold short using futures. In this way, Ethena maintains collateral delta neutrality while earning both the basis and funding rates.

- 抵押品收益率：當用戶鑄造 USDe 時，他們會存入其他幾種穩定幣之一。 Ethena 隨後將這些穩定幣轉換為幾種抵押品之一，然後使用期貨賣空。透過這種方式，Ethena 可以保持抵押品 Delta 中性，同時賺取基礎利率和融資利率。

- Assuming a specific collateral breakdown (shown below) and obtaining the yield from Ethena's dashboard (https://app.ethena.fi/dashboards/hedging/BTC), we can derive the returns obtained by the protocol:

- 假設特定的抵押品細分（如下所示）並從 Ethena 的儀表板（https://app.ethena.fi/dashboards/hedging/BTC）獲取收益，我們可以得出該協議獲得的收益：

Combining these two aspects, we can arrive at Ethena's total profit and loss (PNL): an estimated annualized profit of $62 million:

結合這兩個方面，我們可以得出Ethena的總損益（PNL）：預計年化利潤為6200萬美元：

This brings ENA's MC/revenue multiple to 26 times, making it more attractive than several other leading DeFi projects (note that this is not based on FDV; token unlocks present a significant resistance for the project).

這使得 ENA 的 MC/收入倍數達到 26 倍，使其比其他幾個領先的 DeFi 項目更具吸引力（注意，這不是基於 FDV；代幣解鎖對該項目構成了重大阻力）。

Valuation of ENA: A Scenario Analysis

ENA 的估值：情境分析

Drawing upon the above, we can make certain assumptions to estimate the valuation of ENA by the end of next year. These assumptions will serve as the foundation for the upcoming analysis.

綜上所述，我們可以做出一定的假設來估算明年底ENA的估值。這些假設將作為即將進行的分析的基礎。

It's worth noting that Ethena's business model relies on a certain proportion of USDe not being staked. This enables them to pay returns to USDe investors that exceed the returns earned from collateral, while still maintaining an operating revenue margin of $0.04 per $1 USDe market value.

值得注意的是，Ethena 的商業模式依賴於一定比例的 USDe 不被質押。這使他們能夠向 USDe 投資者支付超過抵押品賺取的回報，同時仍保持每 1 USDe 市值 0.04 美元的營業收入利潤率。

Note: Collateral yield is based on the collateral breakdown shown above and applied over the year. Actual numbers may vary slightly.

注意：抵押品收益率基於上面顯示的抵押品細目並應用於全年。實際數字可能略有不同。

Ethena's growth is dictated by two metrics:

Ethena 的成長由兩個指標決定：

- Growth of total market capitalization of stablecoins

- 穩定幣總市值的成長

- USDe's market share

- USDe的市場份額

The baseline scenario is highlighted in blue: USDe's market share doubles, and stablecoins grow by 75% over the next year. The author considers this estimate quite conservative, and the bullish scenario (orange) is also very reasonable: USDe grows to a 5% market share, with total stablecoins growing by 150%, bringing USDe's market capitalization close to $23 billion. Green represents the bearish scenario, where USDe's market share does not grow, while total stable market capitalization increases slightly by 25%.

基線情境以藍色突出顯示：USDe 的市佔率翻倍，穩定幣在明年成長 75%。作者認為這個估計相當保守，看漲情境（橘色）也非常合理：USDe 的市佔率成長到 5%，穩定幣總量成長 150%，使 USDe 的市值接近 230 億美元。綠色代表看跌情景，其中 USDe 的市場份額沒有成長，而穩定總市值小幅成長 25%。

Based on the above assumptions of a $0.04 income margin, ENA's income situation for next year is as follows:

基於上述0.04美元收入差額的假設，ENA明年的收入情形如下：

Using a hypothetical 30 times revenue multiple, the market capitalization of ENA can be derived in the following table. Please note, the author expects 2025 to be a very strong year for crypto assets, with valuations exceeding fundamentals. 30 times is only slightly higher than ENA's current 26 times, so the potential upside in the following scenario analysis is much higher:

使用假設的 30 倍收入倍數，可以在下表中得出 ENA 的市值。請注意，作者預計 2025 年對於加密資產來說將是非常強勁的一年，估值將超過基本面。 30倍僅略高於ENA目前的26倍，因此以下情境分析中的潛在上漲空間要高得多：