选举结束，比特币大行其道

唐纳德·特朗普 (Donald Trump) 当选引发的一阵狂热，使得这种最受欢迎​​的加密货币首次达到每枚 10 万美元的水平。

The 2020 election is over and bitcoin is on a tear. A spasm of enthusiasm over the election of Donald Trump has sent the most popular cryptocurrency to within striking distance of $100,000 per coin for the first time.

2020 年大选已经结束，比特币正在蓬勃发展。唐纳德·特朗普 (Donald Trump) 当选引发的一阵狂热，使得这种最受欢迎​​的加密货币首次达到每枚 10 万美元的水平。

Even I, a strident critic of cryptocurrencies who has written repeatedly why bitcoin and its even-less-savory ilk should scare the bejesus out of ordinary investors, must acknowledge that the landscape has changed. Under Trump, once a skeptic and now a booster of cryptocurrencies, the newfangled digital assets are poised to make another breakout run.

即使是我这个加密货币的尖锐批评者也必须承认，情况已经发生了变化。在特朗普的领导下，加密货币曾经是怀疑论者，现在是加密货币的支持者，这种新兴的数字资产有望再次取得突破。

The reasons have everything to do with politics and hype, and nothing at all with any new rationale for the worth of cryptocurrencies. They have almost no value in the traditional sense of the word. Yet the prospect of severely diminished regulatory scrutiny under a second Trump term and renewed promotional activity by well-heeled backers promises to become a self-fulfilling prophecy for the collection of hucksters who fancy themselves the “crypto industry.”

原因与政治和炒作有关，与加密货币价值的任何新理由无关。从传统意义上来说，它们几乎没有任何价值。然而，在特朗普第二任期内，监管审查将严重减弱，而富有的支持者将重新开展促销活动，这对于那些自诩为“加密货币行业”的小贩来说，有望成为一个自我实现的预言。

Even after years of promises, there still are few legitimate uses for cryptocurrencies, no matter what crypto cheerleaders insist is an inflation hedge, a store of value, or a better form of international remittance. Or, as one wag put it to me: “No one has come up with a use case for owning bitcoin other than owning bitcoin.”

即使经过多年的承诺，加密货币的合法用途仍然很少，无论加密货币的支持者坚持是通胀对冲、价值储存还是更好的国际汇款形式。或者，正如一位爱开玩笑的人对我说的：“除了拥有比特币之外，没有人想出拥有比特币的用例。”

That’s not the whole story. Bitcoin and some other cryptocurrencies have proved valuable for three buckets of illicit financial transactions: criminal activity, terrorism and money laundering. The last of these is certainly real and possibly even desirable, depending on your point of view: The Wall Street Journal recently reported that Chinese investors are storing large amounts of cryptocurrencies on hard drives to evade their country’s restrictions on moving assets overseas.

这还不是故事的全部。比特币和其他一些加密货币已被证明对三类非法金融交易有价值：犯罪活动、恐怖主义和洗钱。最后一个当然是真实的，甚至可能是可取的，具体取决于你的观点：《华尔街日报》最近报道称，中国投资者正在硬盘上存储大量加密货币，以逃避国家对将资产转移到海外的限制。

Trading cryptocurrencies has been hampered in the United States by regulators trying to protect individual investors. That’s one reason Trump’s return to Washington is so significant. Simply replacing Gary Gensler with a more crypto-supportive chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission is certain to release the feral animal spirits that have been contained to date.

在美国，试图保护个人投资者的监管机构阻碍了加密货币交易。这就是特朗普重返华盛顿如此重要的原因之一。只要用一位更支持加密货币的证券交易委员会主席取代加里·詹斯勒（Gary Gensler），肯定会释放迄今为止所遏制的野性动物精神。

Gensler has been locked in a battle with cryptocurrency backers, likening their offerings to stock issuances that require securities registration. Whoever Trump taps to head the SEC will likely push to treat these assets like commodities such as gold or pork bellies rather than stocks and bonds. That’s in part because commodity regulators focus mostly on fraud rather than investor protection, and as such cryptocurrency issuers would have a much freer hand in a more lightly regulated marketplace.

Gensler 一直与加密货币支持者展开斗争，将他们的产品比作需要证券注册的股票发行。无论特朗普任命谁来领导美国证券交易委员会，都可能会推动将这些资产视为黄金或五花肉等大宗商品，而不是股票和债券。部分原因是大宗商品监管机构主要关注欺诈而不是投资者保护，因此加密货币发行人在监管更宽松的市场中将拥有更大的自由度。

Trump changed his mind on cryptocurrencies for the same reason he does most things: money. Crypto enthusiasts pumped upward of $135 million into backing candidates for office this year who supported crypto-friendly policies. Trump himself has also gotten in on the game. In the fall, during the middle of the presidential campaign, he and his sons announced a new crypto venture called World Liberty Financial. So far, the entity has failed to reach its initial fundraising goals.

特朗普改变了对加密货币的看法，其原因与他做大多数事情的原因相同：金钱。加密货币爱好者投入了超过 1.35 亿美元来支持今年支持加密货币友好政策的公职候选人。特朗普本人也加入了这场游戏。今年秋天，在总统竞选中期，他和他的儿子们宣布了一家名为 World Liberty Financial 的新加密货币企业。到目前为止，该实体未能实现最初的筹款目标。

Trump also has surrounded himself with crypto supporters. His choice to run the Commerce Department is Howard Lutnick, head of the financial firm Cantor Fitzgerald. That firm hosted a gathering for the faithful in Miami last week, the Crypto, Digital Assets, and AI Infrastructure Conference.

特朗普身边也有加密货币的支持者。他选择掌管商务部的是金融公司 Cantor Fitzgerald 的负责人霍华德·卢特尼克 (Howard Lutnick)。该公司上周在迈阿密举办了一场信徒聚会，即加密货币、数字资产和人工智能基础设施会议。

Among this crowd, one presently fashionable idea, which Trump endorsed on the campaign trail, is a strategic bitcoin reserve, similar to the country’s strategic petroleum reserve. It’s a nonsensical concept, of course, somehow tied to the argument that America needs to somehow stay ahead of other countries in the hoarding of an asset no one needs. It’s telling, by the way, that the United States already holds significant amounts of bitcoin — most of which has been seized in criminal cases.

在这群人中，特朗普在竞选过程中支持的一个当前流行的想法是比特币战略储备，类似于该国的战略石油储备。当然，这是一个荒谬的概念，某种程度上与这样的论点有关：美国需要以某种方式在囤积无人需要的资产方面保持领先于其他国家。顺便说一句，这说明美国已经持有大量比特币——其中大部分是在刑事案件中被查获的。

The upshot of all this has been a been a real Trump bump for crypto. The price of bitcoin is now around $94,000, up from about $40,000 in January. Shares of Coinbase, the largest exchange for trading cryptocurrencies — and a target of an SEC lawsuit alleging that it offered unregistered securities — are up by nearly 44 percent in the last month. There is no doubt there will be more demand for crypto if some of the forces holding it back are removed.

所有这一切的结果是特朗普对加密货币的真正推动。比特币的价格目前约为 94,000 美元，高于 1 月份的约 40,000 美元。 Coinbase 是最大的加密货币交易交易所，也是 SEC 指控其提供未注册证券的诉讼目标，其股价上个月上涨了近 44%。毫无疑问，如果消除一些阻碍加密货币的因素，对加密货币的需求将会增加。

None of this, however, means cryptocurrencies will be a safer investment than they were before. If anything, they will become more dangerous. In their short lifespans, digital assets have been subject to wild price swings, given that they trade according to emotion more than anything else. A big rise now with fewer regulatory protections promises only more volatility in the future.

然而，这一切并不意味着加密货币将是比以前更安全的投资。如果有的话，他们会变得更加危险。在其短暂的生命周期中，数字资产一直受到剧烈的价格波动的影响，因为它们比其他任何东西都更容易根据情绪进行交易。现在的大幅上涨和较少的监管保护只会导致未来的波动更大。

In that regard, bitcoin resembles what’s been going on elsewhere in the investment world. In his annual letter to shareholders this spring, Warren Buffett lamented the “casino-like behavior” that didn’t exist when he started his career. “The casino now resides in many homes and daily tempts the occupants.” Speaking of Wall Street promoters, Buffett

在这方面，比特币类似于投资界其他地方正在发生的事情。在今年春天致股东的年度信中，沃伦·巴菲特对他职业生涯开始时并不存在的“赌场式行为”表示遗憾。 “现在许多家庭都设有赌场，每天都在诱惑住户。”说到华尔街的推动者，巴菲特