選舉結束，比特幣大行其道

唐納德·川普 (Donald Trump) 當選引發的一陣狂熱，使得這種最受歡迎的加密貨幣首次達到每枚 10 萬美元的水平。

The 2020 election is over and bitcoin is on a tear. A spasm of enthusiasm over the election of Donald Trump has sent the most popular cryptocurrency to within striking distance of $100,000 per coin for the first time.

2020 年大選已經結束，比特幣正在蓬勃發展。唐納德·川普 (Donald Trump) 當選引發的一陣狂熱，使得這種最受歡迎的加密貨幣首次達到每枚 10 萬美元的水平。

Even I, a strident critic of cryptocurrencies who has written repeatedly why bitcoin and its even-less-savory ilk should scare the bejesus out of ordinary investors, must acknowledge that the landscape has changed. Under Trump, once a skeptic and now a booster of cryptocurrencies, the newfangled digital assets are poised to make another breakout run.

即使是我這個加密貨幣的尖銳批評者也必須承認，情況已經改變了。在川普的領導下，加密貨幣曾經是懷疑論者，現在是加密貨幣的支持者，這種新興的數位資產有望再次突破。

The reasons have everything to do with politics and hype, and nothing at all with any new rationale for the worth of cryptocurrencies. They have almost no value in the traditional sense of the word. Yet the prospect of severely diminished regulatory scrutiny under a second Trump term and renewed promotional activity by well-heeled backers promises to become a self-fulfilling prophecy for the collection of hucksters who fancy themselves the “crypto industry.”

原因與政治和炒作有關，與加密貨幣價值的任何新理由無關。從傳統意義上來說，它們幾乎沒有任何價值。然而，在川普第二任期內，監管審查將嚴重減弱，而富有的支持者將重新開展促銷活動，這對於那些自詡為「加密貨幣產業」的小販來說，有望成為一個自我實現的預言。

Even after years of promises, there still are few legitimate uses for cryptocurrencies, no matter what crypto cheerleaders insist is an inflation hedge, a store of value, or a better form of international remittance. Or, as one wag put it to me: “No one has come up with a use case for owning bitcoin other than owning bitcoin.”

即使經過多年的承諾，加密貨幣的合法用途仍然很少，無論加密貨幣的支持者堅持是通膨對沖、價值儲存或更好的國際匯款形式。或者，正如一位愛開玩笑的人對我說的：“除了擁有比特幣之外，沒有人想出擁有比特幣的用例。”

That’s not the whole story. Bitcoin and some other cryptocurrencies have proved valuable for three buckets of illicit financial transactions: criminal activity, terrorism and money laundering. The last of these is certainly real and possibly even desirable, depending on your point of view: The Wall Street Journal recently reported that Chinese investors are storing large amounts of cryptocurrencies on hard drives to evade their country’s restrictions on moving assets overseas.

這還不是故事的全部。比特幣和其他一些加密貨幣已被證明對三類非法金融交易有價值：犯罪活動、恐怖主義和洗錢。最後一個當然是真的，甚至可能是可取的，具體取決於你的觀點：《華爾街日報》最近報道稱，中國投資者正在硬碟上存儲大量加密貨幣，以逃避國家對將資產轉移到海外的限制。

Trading cryptocurrencies has been hampered in the United States by regulators trying to protect individual investors. That’s one reason Trump’s return to Washington is so significant. Simply replacing Gary Gensler with a more crypto-supportive chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission is certain to release the feral animal spirits that have been contained to date.

在美國，試圖保護個人投資者的監管機構阻礙了加密貨幣交易。這就是為什麼川普重返華盛頓如此重要的原因之一。只要用一位更支持加密貨幣的證券交易委員會主席取代加里·詹斯勒（Gary Gensler），肯定會釋放迄今為止所遏制的野性動物精神。

Gensler has been locked in a battle with cryptocurrency backers, likening their offerings to stock issuances that require securities registration. Whoever Trump taps to head the SEC will likely push to treat these assets like commodities such as gold or pork bellies rather than stocks and bonds. That’s in part because commodity regulators focus mostly on fraud rather than investor protection, and as such cryptocurrency issuers would have a much freer hand in a more lightly regulated marketplace.

Gensler 一直在與加密貨幣支持者展開鬥爭，將他們的產品比作需要證券註冊的股票發行。無論川普任命誰來領導美國證券交易委員會，都可能會推動將這些資產視為黃金或五花肉等大宗商品，而不是股票和債券。部分原因是大宗商品監管機構主要關注詐欺而不是投資者保護，因此加密貨幣發行人在監管更寬鬆的市場中將擁有更大的自由度。

Trump changed his mind on cryptocurrencies for the same reason he does most things: money. Crypto enthusiasts pumped upward of $135 million into backing candidates for office this year who supported crypto-friendly policies. Trump himself has also gotten in on the game. In the fall, during the middle of the presidential campaign, he and his sons announced a new crypto venture called World Liberty Financial. So far, the entity has failed to reach its initial fundraising goals.

川普改變了對加密貨幣的看法，原因與他做大多數事情的原因相同：金錢。加密貨幣愛好者投入了超過 1.35 億美元來支持今年支持加密貨幣友善政策的公職候選人。川普本人也加入了這場遊戲。今年秋天，在總統競選中期，他和他的兒子們宣布成立一家名為 World Liberty Financial 的新加密貨幣企業。到目前為止，該實體未能實現最初的募款目標。

Trump also has surrounded himself with crypto supporters. His choice to run the Commerce Department is Howard Lutnick, head of the financial firm Cantor Fitzgerald. That firm hosted a gathering for the faithful in Miami last week, the Crypto, Digital Assets, and AI Infrastructure Conference.

川普身邊也有加密貨幣的支持者。他選擇掌管商務部的是金融公司 Cantor Fitzgerald 的負責人霍華德·盧特尼克 (Howard Lutnick)。該公司上週在邁阿密舉辦了一場信徒聚會，即加密貨幣、數位資產和人工智慧基礎設施會議。

Among this crowd, one presently fashionable idea, which Trump endorsed on the campaign trail, is a strategic bitcoin reserve, similar to the country’s strategic petroleum reserve. It’s a nonsensical concept, of course, somehow tied to the argument that America needs to somehow stay ahead of other countries in the hoarding of an asset no one needs. It’s telling, by the way, that the United States already holds significant amounts of bitcoin — most of which has been seized in criminal cases.

在這群人中，川普在競選過程中支持的一個當前流行的想法是比特幣戰略儲備，類似於該國的戰略石油儲備。當然，這是一個荒謬的概念，某種程度上與這樣的論點有關：美國需要以某種方式在囤積無人需要的資產方面保持領先於其他國家。順便說一句，這說明美國已經持有大量比特幣——其中大部分是在刑事案件中被查獲的。

The upshot of all this has been a been a real Trump bump for crypto. The price of bitcoin is now around $94,000, up from about $40,000 in January. Shares of Coinbase, the largest exchange for trading cryptocurrencies — and a target of an SEC lawsuit alleging that it offered unregistered securities — are up by nearly 44 percent in the last month. There is no doubt there will be more demand for crypto if some of the forces holding it back are removed.

所有這一切的結果是川普對加密貨幣的真正推動。比特幣的價格目前約為 94,000 美元，高於 1 月的約 40,000 美元。 Coinbase 是最大的加密貨幣交易交易所，也是 SEC 指控其提供未註冊證券的訴訟目標，其股價上個月上漲了近 44%。毫無疑問，如果一些阻礙加密貨幣的因素被消除，加密貨幣的需求將會增加。

None of this, however, means cryptocurrencies will be a safer investment than they were before. If anything, they will become more dangerous. In their short lifespans, digital assets have been subject to wild price swings, given that they trade according to emotion more than anything else. A big rise now with fewer regulatory protections promises only more volatility in the future.

然而，這一切並不意味著加密貨幣將是比以前更安全的投資。如果有的話，他們會變得更加危險。在其短暫的生命週期中，數位資產一直受到劇烈的價格波動的影響，因為它們比其他任何東西都更容易根據情緒進行交易。現在的大幅上漲和較少的監管保護只會導致未來的波動更大。

In that regard, bitcoin resembles what’s been going on elsewhere in the investment world. In his annual letter to shareholders this spring, Warren Buffett lamented the “casino-like behavior” that didn’t exist when he started his career. “The casino now resides in many homes and daily tempts the occupants.” Speaking of Wall Street promoters, Buffett

在這方面，比特幣類似於投資界其他地方正在發生的事情。在今年春天致股東的年度信中，華倫·巴菲特對他職業生涯開始時並不存在的「賭場式行為」表示遺憾。 “現在許多家庭都設有賭場，每天都在誘惑住戶。”說到華爾街的推動者，巴菲特