临近年底苏格兰的经济前景

通货膨胀已经被抑制了吗？消费价格涨幅在两年多前曾达到11%以上的峰值，今年年初已降至4%。

Sir Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves will be relieved by the absence of economic data over the festive season, given the recent poor set of figures.

鉴于最近的糟糕数据，凯尔·斯塔默爵士和雷切尔·里维斯将因节日期间缺乏经济数据而松一口气。

The prime minister and chancellor will reach the end of the year, and the six-month mark since Labour's election victory, with an unwelcome set of recent economic data.

首相和财政大臣将在今年年底到来，这也是自工党选举胜利以来的六个月大关，近期的经济数据将不受欢迎。

So let's review where we have got to, from a Scottish perspective, as we near the end of the year.

因此，在临近年底的时候，让我们从苏格兰的角度回顾一下我们必须要做的事情。

Has inflation been tamed?

通货膨胀已经被抑制了吗？

The rate of increase of consumer prices peaked above 11% just over two years ago and had fallen to 4% at the start of this year.

消费价格涨幅在两年多前曾达到11%以上的峰值，今年年初已降至4%。

The target level for price inflation, measured over the preceding 12 months, is 2%.

过去 12 个月的物价通胀目标水平为 2%。

The rate fell below that level in September this year.

今年 9 月该比率跌破该水平。

So it looks like it has been tamed, with the help of higher interest rates.

因此，在更高利率的帮助下，它看起来已经被驯服了。

Since then, two sets of monthly figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), covering the whole UK, have shown inflation going up to 2.3% and then 2.6% in the year to November.

此后，英国国家统计局 (ONS) 发布的涵盖整个英国的两组月度数据显示，截至 11 月份的一年中，通胀率分别升至 2.3% 和 2.6%。

So it's much closer to target, but there are underlying pressures which mean it doesn't look tame yet.

因此，它更接近目标，但存在潜在的压力，这意味着它看起来还不太温和。

Is pay rising too fast?

工资涨得太快了吗？

Unless you are very fortunate, your pay can never rise fast enough.

除非你非常幸运，否则你的工资永远不会增长得足够快。

But for the economy, too much pay inflation can feed through to price inflation.

但对于经济而言，工资通胀过高可能会导致价格通胀。

Average weekly pay across Britain has been rising at more than 5% - well ahead of price inflation.

英国平均每周工资上涨超过 5%——远远超过物价上涨。

HMRC, the tax collection agency, said its data show employees (not including the self-employed) have seen earnings go up by 7.6% in Scotland in only a year.

税收机构 HMRC 表示，其数据显示，苏格兰雇员（不包括个体经营者）的收入仅在一年内就增长了 7.6%。

Some of that is to catch up with the loss of real spending power while prices were rising fast.

其中一些是为了弥补物价快速上涨时实际消费能力的损失。

Some of it may be due to improved productivity, meaning you earn more because you produce more or add more value by what you do in a day's or a week's work.

其中一些可能是由于生产力的提高，这意味着您赚得更多，因为您在一天或一周的工作中创造了更多或增加了更多价值。

But the British and Scottish economies have had poor productivity growth, and in the public sector, it's gone backwards.

但英国和苏格兰经济的生产率增长缓慢，公共部门的生产率甚至出现倒退。

Looking to next year, the pay bill will go up again, including a higher minimum wage and employers' National Insurance Contributions (NICs).

展望明年，工资单将再次上涨，包括提高最低工资和雇主的国民保险缴款（NIC）。

Some of that will be passed on to customers in higher prices, while it is also expected to dampen pay increases and to reduce profits.

其中一些将以更高的价格转嫁给客户，同时预计也会抑制工资上涨并减少利润。

How many people are unemployed?

有多少人失业？

The increased cost of employing people, through higher NICs, has weakened the labour market.

由于国家国民收入的提高，雇佣人员的成本增加，削弱了劳动力市场。

The number of vacancies being advertised, which was very high after the pandemic, has fallen.

疫情爆发后发布的职位空缺数量非常高，但现在已经有所下降。

The UK unemployment rate has gone up, though not by much.

英国失业率有所上升，但幅度不大。

However, the problem here is that the numbers have become unreliable, and more so for the nations and regions.

然而，这里的问题是这些数字已经变得不可靠，对于国家和地区来说更是如此。

The sample of people in the Labour Force Survey is well below the level at which clear conclusions can be drawn below the UK level.

劳动力调查中的人员样本远低于可以得出明确结论的水平，低于英国的水平。

One big driver of government policy is the concern about large numbers of people who are unemployed due to long-term illness, including many who want to return to work.

政府政策的一大推动力是对大量因长期疾病而失业的人的担忧，其中包括许多想要重返工作岗位的人。

But the data to support that is not clear.

但支持这一点的数据尚不清楚。

The ONS is trying to correct that with different sampling techniques, but change is coming slowly.

英国国家统计局正在尝试通过不同的采样技术来纠正这一问题，但改变正在缓慢进行。

When will interest rates come down?

利率什么时候会下降？

Two cuts during 2024 have brought them from a 16-year high point at 5.25% to 4.75%.

2024 年期间的两次降息使利率从 16 年来的高点 5.25% 降至 4.75%。

The monetary policy committee of the Bank of England, made up of nine economists, has the task of bringing inflation to its 2% target.

由九名经济学家组成的英格兰银行货币政策委员会的任务是使通货膨胀率达到2%的目标。

But it has to be careful about choking off investment, consumer spending and economic activity, and causing a recession.

但它必须小心，以免抑制投资、消费者支出和经济活动，并导致经济衰退。

It has been concerned with the stubbornly high rate of core inflation, stripping out the volatile elements.

它一直担心核心通胀率居高不下，排除了波动性因素。

The committee is also wary of service sector price inflation, which is an indicator of continuing home-grown price pressures more than imported price increases due to international factors.

该委员会还对服务业价格通胀保持警惕，这表明国内价格压力持续存在，而不是国际因素导致的进口价格上涨。

That helps explain why it voted last week to hold its base interest rate at 4.75%.

这有助于解释为什么上周投票决定将基本利率维持在 4.75%。

The Bank of England's governor, Andrew Bailey, said that further cuts were likely, but did not encourage people to think they would come quickly.

英国央行行长安德鲁·贝利表示，可能会进一步降息，但并不鼓励人们认为降息会很快。

Economists in central banks are also nervous about the impact of Donald Trump returning to the White House and imposing tariffs on goods being imported into the USA.

各国央行的经济学家也对唐纳德·特朗普重返白宫并对美国进口商品征收关税的影响感到紧张。

That would probably fuel American inflation, and could have a contagious effect elsewhere.

这可能会加剧美国的通货膨胀，并可能对其他地方产生传染性影响。

As a result of expectations of interest rates staying higher a bit longer, the cost of fixed term borrowing, often used for mortgages, has gone up.

由于预期利率将维持较高水平，因此通常用于抵押贷款的定期借款成本有所上升。

Why is the economy not growing?

经济为何不增长？

The most recent estimate for the Scottish economy showed a contraction by 0.2% in output from the economy during October.

对苏格兰经济的最新估计显示 10 月份经济产出收缩 0.2%。

During August to October, it is estimated that the Scottish economy did not grow at all.

8月至10月期间，估计苏格兰经济根本没有增长。

The equivalent UK figure for October was a 0.1% contraction.

英国 10 月份的相应数据为收缩 0.1%。

That may have been

那可能是