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通膨已經被抑制了嗎?消費價格漲幅在兩年多前曾達到11%以上的峰值,今年初已降至4%。
Sir Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves will be relieved by the absence of economic data over the festive season, given the recent poor set of figures.
鑑於最近的糟糕數據,凱爾·斯塔默爵士和雷切爾·裡維斯將因節日期間缺乏經濟數據而鬆一口氣。
The prime minister and chancellor will reach the end of the year, and the six-month mark since Labour's election victory, with an unwelcome set of recent economic data.
首相和財政大臣將在今年年底到來,這也是自工黨選舉勝利以來的六個月大關,近期的經濟數據將不受歡迎。
So let's review where we have got to, from a Scottish perspective, as we near the end of the year.
因此,在接近年底的時候,讓我們從蘇格蘭的角度回顧我們必須要做的事情。
Has inflation been tamed?
通膨已經被抑制了嗎?
The rate of increase of consumer prices peaked above 11% just over two years ago and had fallen to 4% at the start of this year.
消費價格漲幅在兩年多前曾達到11%以上的峰值,今年初已降至4%。
The target level for price inflation, measured over the preceding 12 months, is 2%.
過去 12 個月的物價通膨目標水準為 2%。
The rate fell below that level in September this year.
今年 9 月該比率跌破該水準。
So it looks like it has been tamed, with the help of higher interest rates.
因此,在更高利率的幫助下,它看起來已經被馴服了。
Since then, two sets of monthly figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), covering the whole UK, have shown inflation going up to 2.3% and then 2.6% in the year to November.
此後,英國國家統計局 (ONS) 發布的涵蓋整個英國的兩組月度數據顯示,截至 11 月的一年中,通膨率分別升至 2.3% 和 2.6%。
So it's much closer to target, but there are underlying pressures which mean it doesn't look tame yet.
因此,它更接近目標,但存在潛在的壓力,這意味著它看起來還不太溫和。
Is pay rising too fast?
薪水漲得太快了嗎?
Unless you are very fortunate, your pay can never rise fast enough.
除非你非常幸運,否則你的薪水永遠不會成長得夠快。
But for the economy, too much pay inflation can feed through to price inflation.
但對於經濟而言,薪資通膨過高可能會導致物價通膨。
Average weekly pay across Britain has been rising at more than 5% - well ahead of price inflation.
英國平均每週工資上漲超過 5%——遠超過物價上漲。
HMRC, the tax collection agency, said its data show employees (not including the self-employed) have seen earnings go up by 7.6% in Scotland in only a year.
稅務機構 HMRC 表示,其數據顯示,蘇格蘭員工(不包括自僱人士)的收入僅在一年內就增加了 7.6%。
Some of that is to catch up with the loss of real spending power while prices were rising fast.
其中一些是為了彌補物價快速上漲時實際消費能力的損失。
Some of it may be due to improved productivity, meaning you earn more because you produce more or add more value by what you do in a day's or a week's work.
其中一些可能是由於生產力的提高,這意味著您賺得更多,因為您在一天或一周的工作中創造了更多或增加了更多價值。
But the British and Scottish economies have had poor productivity growth, and in the public sector, it's gone backwards.
但英國和蘇格蘭經濟的生產力成長緩慢,公共部門的生產力甚至出現倒退。
Looking to next year, the pay bill will go up again, including a higher minimum wage and employers' National Insurance Contributions (NICs).
展望明年,薪資將再次上漲,包括提高最低工資和雇主的國民保險繳款(NIC)。
Some of that will be passed on to customers in higher prices, while it is also expected to dampen pay increases and to reduce profits.
其中一些將以更高的價格轉嫁給客戶,同時預計也會抑制薪資上漲並減少利潤。
How many people are unemployed?
有多少人失業?
The increased cost of employing people, through higher NICs, has weakened the labour market.
由於國家國民所得的提高,僱用人員的成本增加,削弱了勞動市場。
The number of vacancies being advertised, which was very high after the pandemic, has fallen.
疫情爆發後發布的職缺數量非常高,但現在已經有所下降。
The UK unemployment rate has gone up, though not by much.
英國失業率上升,但幅度不大。
However, the problem here is that the numbers have become unreliable, and more so for the nations and regions.
然而,這裡的問題是這些數字已經變得不可靠,對於國家和地區來說更是如此。
The sample of people in the Labour Force Survey is well below the level at which clear conclusions can be drawn below the UK level.
勞動力調查中的人員樣本遠低於可以得出明確結論的水平,低於英國的水平。
One big driver of government policy is the concern about large numbers of people who are unemployed due to long-term illness, including many who want to return to work.
政府政策的一大推動力是對大量因長期疾病而失業的人的擔憂,其中包括許多想要重返工作崗位的人。
But the data to support that is not clear.
但支持這一點的數據尚不清楚。
The ONS is trying to correct that with different sampling techniques, but change is coming slowly.
英國國家統計局正在嘗試透過不同的採樣技術來糾正這個問題,但變化進展緩慢。
When will interest rates come down?
利率什麼時候會下降?
Two cuts during 2024 have brought them from a 16-year high point at 5.25% to 4.75%.
2024 年期間的兩次降息使利率從 16 年來的高點 5.25% 降至 4.75%。
The monetary policy committee of the Bank of England, made up of nine economists, has the task of bringing inflation to its 2% target.
由九位經濟學家組成的英格蘭銀行貨幣政策委員會的任務是將通貨膨脹率達到2%的目標。
But it has to be careful about choking off investment, consumer spending and economic activity, and causing a recession.
但它必須小心,以免抑制投資、消費者支出和經濟活動,並導致經濟衰退。
It has been concerned with the stubbornly high rate of core inflation, stripping out the volatile elements.
它一直擔心核心通膨率居高不下,排除了波動性因素。
The committee is also wary of service sector price inflation, which is an indicator of continuing home-grown price pressures more than imported price increases due to international factors.
該委員會也對服務業價格通膨保持警惕,這表明國內價格壓力持續存在,而不是國際因素導致的進口價格上漲。
That helps explain why it voted last week to hold its base interest rate at 4.75%.
這有助於解釋為什麼上週投票決定將基本利率維持在 4.75%。
The Bank of England's governor, Andrew Bailey, said that further cuts were likely, but did not encourage people to think they would come quickly.
英國央行行長安德魯貝利表示,可能會進一步降息,但不鼓勵人們認為降息會很快。
Economists in central banks are also nervous about the impact of Donald Trump returning to the White House and imposing tariffs on goods being imported into the USA.
各國央行的經濟學家也對唐納德·川普重返白宮並對美國進口商品徵收關稅的影響感到緊張。
That would probably fuel American inflation, and could have a contagious effect elsewhere.
這可能會加劇美國的通貨膨脹,並可能對其他地方產生傳染性影響。
As a result of expectations of interest rates staying higher a bit longer, the cost of fixed term borrowing, often used for mortgages, has gone up.
由於預期利率將維持較高水平,因此通常用於抵押貸款的定期借款成本有所上升。
Why is the economy not growing?
經濟為何不成長?
The most recent estimate for the Scottish economy showed a contraction by 0.2% in output from the economy during October.
蘇格蘭經濟的最新估計顯示 10 月經濟產出收縮 0.2%。
During August to October, it is estimated that the Scottish economy did not grow at all.
8月至10月期間,估計蘇格蘭經濟根本沒有成長。
The equivalent UK figure for October was a 0.1% contraction.
英國 10 月份的相應數據為收縮 0.1%。
That may have been
那可能是
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