记录理性的极限

塞勒坚持不懈地突破经济科学的极限，超越“理性主体”的假设。值得注意的是，他在《经济展望杂志》上定期发表“异常”系列，以及许多文章、评论和书籍，以推动心理学应该融入经济学的想法。

Alfred Nobel's will established the Nobel Prize, which is awarded annually to those who have made the greatest contribution to humanity in the fields of physics, chemistry, physiology or medicine, literature, and peace during the preceding year.

阿尔弗雷德·诺贝尔的遗嘱设立了诺贝尔奖，每年颁发给前一年在物理、化学、生理学或医学、文学以及和平领域对人类做出最大贡献的人。

Later on, the Swedish central bank would create a sixth prize for economic sciences, which is officially known as the Prize in Economic Sciences and often referred to as the Nobel Prize in Economics.

后来，瑞典央行设立了第六个经济科学奖，正式名称为经济科学奖，通常被称为诺贝尔经济学奖。

The decision on who will receive the prize is made by several Swedish academic institutions.

该奖项的获奖者由几个瑞典学术机构决定。

Alfred Nobel's decision to establish the Nobel Prize was influenced by an event that occurred earlier in his life. When a French newspaper mistakenly reported his brother's death, it published an obituary titled "The Merchant of Death Is Dead." The article criticized Nobel for his invention of smokeless explosives, of which dynamite was the most well-known.

阿尔弗雷德·诺贝尔设立诺贝尔奖的决定受到他早年发生的一件事件的影响。当一家法国报纸误报了他兄弟的死讯时，刊登了一篇题为《死亡商人已死》的讣告。文章批评诺贝尔发明无烟炸药，其中最著名的是炸药。

Nobel's inventions had a significant impact on the development of modern warfare, and he eventually purchased a large iron and steel mill with the intention of transforming it into a major armaments manufacturer.

诺贝尔的发明对现代战争的发展产生了重大影响，他最终购买了一家大型钢铁厂，打算将其改造成主要的军火制造商。

However, being primarily a chemist, engineer, and inventor, Nobel realized that he did not want his legacy to be that of a man who had made a fortune from war and the deaths of others.

然而，作为一名化学家、工程师和发明家，诺贝尔意识到他不希望自己的遗产成为一个从战争和他人的死亡中发家致富的人。

Today, Nobel's fortune is held in a fund that is invested to generate income for the Nobel Foundation and the gold-plated green gold medal, diploma, and monetary award of 11 million SEK (around $1M) that is given to the prize winners.

如今，诺贝尔的财产存放在一个基金中，该基金用于为诺贝尔基金会创造收入，并为获奖者颁发镀金绿色金牌、证书和 1100 万瑞典克朗（约合 100 万美元）的奖金。

The prize money is frequently divided among multiple winners, especially in scientific fields where it is common for two or three leading figures to contribute together or in parallel to a groundbreaking discovery.

奖金通常会分配给多个获奖者，特别是在科学领域，两到三个领军人物共同或同时做出突破性发现是很常见的。

Over the years, the Nobel Prize has become the preeminent scientific prize, striving to strike a balance between theoretical and highly practical discoveries. It has recognized achievements that have laid the foundations of the modern world, such as radioactivity, antibiotics, X-rays, or PCR, as well as fundamental science like the power source of the sun, the electron charge, atomic structure, or superfluidity.

多年来，诺贝尔奖已成为卓越的科学奖项，努力在理论和高度实用的发现之间取得平衡。它认可了为现代世界奠定基础的成就，例如放射性、抗生素、X射线或PCR，以及基础科学，例如太阳电源、电子电荷、原子结构或超流性。

For a long time - practically since its origins with Adam Smith - economic sciences have analyzed macroeconomics with the assumption that the people making up the economy are rational actors.

长期以来——实际上自亚当·斯密起源以来——经济科学一直在分析宏观经济学时假设构成经济的人是理性行为者。

From such ideas stemmed central concepts of economic science, such as:

从这些想法中衍生出了经济科学的核心概念，例如：

This makes some sense, as people are mostly driven by their own interests, and most economics (trade, currency, etc.) involve logical and rational decisions. But at the same time, it is not so hard to find plenty of real-life examples where individuals, companies, or entire nations make all but rational choices. And especially when it comes to economics and money.

这是有道理的，因为人们大多受自身利益驱动，而大多数经济学（贸易、货币等）都涉及逻辑和理性决策。但与此同时，在现实生活中也不难找到大量个人、公司或整个国家做出理性选择的例子。尤其是在经济和金钱方面。

For example, someone might gamble his life savings away in a casino, even when knowing that the probabilities are against him. Or a company's management might make risky gambles that endanger a corporation more than a century old.

例如，某人可能会在赌场赌上一生的积蓄，即使他知道可能性对他不利。或者，公司管理层可能会进行冒险赌博，从而危及一家已有百年历史的公司。

This has long troubled economists, who knew deep inside that the “perfectly rational agent” assumed in most economic models is an oversimplification.

这长期以来一直困扰着经济学家，他们内心深处知道，大多数经济模型中假设的“完全理性主体”过于简单化。

This led to the development of a new discipline, sitting at the junction between the study of economics, and the study of human psychology, called behavioral economics.

这导致了一门新学科的发展，它位于经济学研究和人类心理学研究的交叉点，称为行为经济学。

One key founder of this discipline has been Richard H. Thaler, who was rewarded with the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2017 for his contributions to behavioral economics.

该学科的主要创始人之一是理查德·塞勒 (Richard H. Thaler)，他因对行为经济学的贡献而获得 2017 年诺贝尔经济学奖。

Thaler was relentless in pushing the limits of economic sciences beyond the presumptions of “rational agents.” Notably, he published the regular “Anomalies” series in the Journal of Economic Perspectives, as well as many articles, comments, and books to push the idea that psychology should be integrated into economics.

塞勒坚持不懈地突破经济科学的极限，超越“理性主体”的假设。值得注意的是，他在《经济展望杂志》上定期发表“异常”系列，以及许多文章、评论和书籍，以推动心理学应该融入经济学的想法。

Throughout his career, he would further elaborate and build a large array of analyses on the limited rationality, or sometimes irrationality, of our economic decisions. Among these are three key concepts:

在他的整个职业生涯中，他对我们经济决策的有限理性，有时甚至是非理性进行了进一步阐述和建立了大量的分析。其中包括三个关键概念：

Thaler's first insight was into people's tendency to make economic decisions based on gains and losses relative to some reference point. This differed from conventional economic wisdom, assuming a rational choice for a given amount of wealth or utility (like health).

塞勒的第一个洞察是人们倾向于根据相对于某个参考点的得失来做出经济决策。这与传统的经济智慧不同，传统的经济智慧假设对一定数量的财富或效用（如健康）进行理性选择。

He also demonstrated it in multiple studies where he investigated people's preferences when facing hypothetical scenarios. For example, a $100 to a $200 gain (or loss) has a larger utility impact than moving from a $10,100 to a $10,200 gain (or loss), despite the gain/loss being actually identical.

他还在多项研究中证明了这一点，他调查了人们在面对假设场景时的偏好。例如，尽管收益/损失实际上相同，但从 100 美元到 200 美元的收益（或损失）比从 10,100 美元到 10,200 美元的收益（或损失）具有更大的效用影响。

Another example is how taxi drivers drive less on days with high demand and more on days with low demand.

另一个例子是出租车司机如何在需求高的日子少开车，在需求低的日子多开车。

This is not rational economic behavior, but it makes sense if the mental goal is to reach a certain reference revenue for the day instead of maximizing profits over time.

这不是理性的经济行为，但如果心理目标是达到当天的特定参考收入而不是随着时间的推移实现利润最大化，那么这是有道理的。

A key influence is that people are known to be much more averse to loss than appreciative of gains. This can sometimes manifest as an order of magnitude greater sensitivity to losses or fear of losses than greed for gains.

一个关键的影响是，人们对损失的厌恶程度远高于对收益的感激程度。有时，这可能表现为对损失或对损失的恐惧的敏感性比对收益的贪婪高出一个数量级。

So, for example, when faced with equal

例如，当面对平等时