記錄理性的極限

塞勒堅持不懈地突破經濟科學的極限，超越「理性主體」的假設。值得注意的是，他在《經濟展望雜誌》上定期發表「異常」系列，以及許多文章、評論和書籍，以推動心理學應該融入經濟學的想法。

Alfred Nobel's will established the Nobel Prize, which is awarded annually to those who have made the greatest contribution to humanity in the fields of physics, chemistry, physiology or medicine, literature, and peace during the preceding year.

阿爾弗雷德·諾貝爾的遺囑設立了諾貝爾獎，每年頒發給前一年在物理、化學、生理學或醫學、文學以及和平領域對人類做出最大貢獻的人。

Later on, the Swedish central bank would create a sixth prize for economic sciences, which is officially known as the Prize in Economic Sciences and often referred to as the Nobel Prize in Economics.

後來，瑞典央行設立了第六個經濟科學獎，正式名稱為經濟科學獎，通常被稱為諾貝爾經濟學獎。

The decision on who will receive the prize is made by several Swedish academic institutions.

該獎項的獲獎者由幾個瑞典學術機構決定。

Alfred Nobel's decision to establish the Nobel Prize was influenced by an event that occurred earlier in his life. When a French newspaper mistakenly reported his brother's death, it published an obituary titled "The Merchant of Death Is Dead." The article criticized Nobel for his invention of smokeless explosives, of which dynamite was the most well-known.

阿爾弗雷德·諾貝爾設立諾貝爾獎的決定受到他早年發生的一件事件的影響。當一家法國報紙誤報了他兄弟的死訊時，刊登了一篇題為《死亡商人已死》的訃告。文章批評諾貝爾發明無菸炸藥，其中最著名的是炸藥。

Nobel's inventions had a significant impact on the development of modern warfare, and he eventually purchased a large iron and steel mill with the intention of transforming it into a major armaments manufacturer.

諾貝爾的發明對現代戰爭的發展產生了重大影響，他最終購買了一家大型鋼鐵廠，打算將其改造成主要的軍火製造商。

However, being primarily a chemist, engineer, and inventor, Nobel realized that he did not want his legacy to be that of a man who had made a fortune from war and the deaths of others.

然而，作為一名化學家、工程師和發明家，諾貝爾意識到他不希望自己的遺產成為一個從戰爭和他人的死亡中致富的人。

Today, Nobel's fortune is held in a fund that is invested to generate income for the Nobel Foundation and the gold-plated green gold medal, diploma, and monetary award of 11 million SEK (around $1M) that is given to the prize winners.

如今，諾貝爾的財產存放在一個基金中，該基金用於為諾貝爾基金會創造收入，並為獲獎者頒發鍍金綠色金牌、證書和 1100 萬瑞典克朗（約 100 萬美元）的獎金。

The prize money is frequently divided among multiple winners, especially in scientific fields where it is common for two or three leading figures to contribute together or in parallel to a groundbreaking discovery.

獎金通常會分配給多個獲獎者，特別是在科學領域，兩到三個領導者共同或同時做出突破性發現是很常見的。

Over the years, the Nobel Prize has become the preeminent scientific prize, striving to strike a balance between theoretical and highly practical discoveries. It has recognized achievements that have laid the foundations of the modern world, such as radioactivity, antibiotics, X-rays, or PCR, as well as fundamental science like the power source of the sun, the electron charge, atomic structure, or superfluidity.

多年來，諾貝爾獎已成為卓越的科學獎項，努力在理論和高度實用的發現之間取得平衡。它認可了為現代世界奠定基礎的成就，例如放射性、抗生素、X射線或PCR，以及基礎科學，例如太陽電源、電子電荷、原子結構或超流性。

For a long time - practically since its origins with Adam Smith - economic sciences have analyzed macroeconomics with the assumption that the people making up the economy are rational actors.

長期以來——實際上自亞當·斯密起源以來——經濟科學一直在分析宏觀經濟學時假設構成經濟的人是理性行為者。

From such ideas stemmed central concepts of economic science, such as:

從這些想法中衍生出了經濟科學的核心概念，例如：

This makes some sense, as people are mostly driven by their own interests, and most economics (trade, currency, etc.) involve logical and rational decisions. But at the same time, it is not so hard to find plenty of real-life examples where individuals, companies, or entire nations make all but rational choices. And especially when it comes to economics and money.

這是有道理的，因為人們大多受自身利益驅動，而大多數經濟學（貿易、貨幣等）都涉及邏輯和理性決策。但同時，在現實生活中也不難找到大量個人、公司或整個國家做出理性選擇的例子。尤其是在經濟和金錢方面。

For example, someone might gamble his life savings away in a casino, even when knowing that the probabilities are against him. Or a company's management might make risky gambles that endanger a corporation more than a century old.

例如，某人可能會在賭場賭上一生的積蓄，即使他知道可能性對他不利。或者，公司管理層可能會進行冒險賭博，從而危及一家已有百年歷史的公司。

This has long troubled economists, who knew deep inside that the “perfectly rational agent” assumed in most economic models is an oversimplification.

這長期以來一直困擾著經濟學家，他們內心深處知道，大多數經濟模型中假設的「完全理性主體」過於簡化。

This led to the development of a new discipline, sitting at the junction between the study of economics, and the study of human psychology, called behavioral economics.

這導致了一門新學科的發展，它位於經濟學研究和人類心理學研究的交叉點，稱為行為經濟學。

One key founder of this discipline has been Richard H. Thaler, who was rewarded with the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2017 for his contributions to behavioral economics.

該學科的主要創始人之一是理查德·塞勒 (Richard H. Thaler)，他因對行為經濟學的貢獻而獲得 2017 年諾貝爾經濟學獎。

Thaler was relentless in pushing the limits of economic sciences beyond the presumptions of “rational agents.” Notably, he published the regular “Anomalies” series in the Journal of Economic Perspectives, as well as many articles, comments, and books to push the idea that psychology should be integrated into economics.

塞勒堅持不懈地突破經濟科學的極限，超越「理性主體」的假設。值得注意的是，他在《經濟展望雜誌》上定期發表「異常」系列，以及許多文章、評論和書籍，以推動心理學應該融入經濟學的想法。

Throughout his career, he would further elaborate and build a large array of analyses on the limited rationality, or sometimes irrationality, of our economic decisions. Among these are three key concepts:

在他的整個職業生涯中，他對我們經濟決策的有限理性，有時甚至是非理性進行了進一步闡述和建立了大量的分析。其中包括三個關鍵概念：

Thaler's first insight was into people's tendency to make economic decisions based on gains and losses relative to some reference point. This differed from conventional economic wisdom, assuming a rational choice for a given amount of wealth or utility (like health).

塞勒的第一個洞見是人們傾向於根據相對於某個參考點的得失來做出經濟決策。這與傳統的經濟智慧不同，傳統的經濟智慧假設對一定數量的財富或效用（如健康）進行理性選擇。

He also demonstrated it in multiple studies where he investigated people's preferences when facing hypothetical scenarios. For example, a $100 to a $200 gain (or loss) has a larger utility impact than moving from a $10,100 to a $10,200 gain (or loss), despite the gain/loss being actually identical.

他還在多項研究中證明了這一點，他調查了人們在面對假設場景時的偏好。例如，儘管收益/損失實際上相同，但從 100 美元到 200 美元的收益（或損失）比從 10,100 美元到 10,200 美元的收益（或損失）具有更大的效用影響。

Another example is how taxi drivers drive less on days with high demand and more on days with low demand.

另一個例子是計程車司機如何在需求高的日子少開車，在需求低的日子多開車。

This is not rational economic behavior, but it makes sense if the mental goal is to reach a certain reference revenue for the day instead of maximizing profits over time.

這不是理性的經濟行為，但如果心理目標是達到當天的特定參考收入而不是隨著時間的推移實現利潤最大化，那麼這是有道理的。

A key influence is that people are known to be much more averse to loss than appreciative of gains. This can sometimes manifest as an order of magnitude greater sensitivity to losses or fear of losses than greed for gains.

一個關鍵的影響是，人們對損失的厭惡程度遠高於對收益的感激程度。有時，這可能表現為對損失或對損失的恐懼的敏感性比對收益的貪婪高出一個數量級。

So, for example, when faced with equal

例如，當面對平等時