加密货币：创新与风险规避的困境

从表面上看，加密货币似乎正在蓬勃发展：经过多年的排斥，现货ETF终于上线，比特币（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）

As cryptocurrencies continue to gain mainstream attention, with soaring prices and new milestones being reached, a closer examination reveals a deeper narrative unfolding within the industry. While the external macro factors contribute significantly to the price outlook, impacting the overall trajectory of cryptocurrencies, a more nuanced analysis unveils a tale of waning ambition and an innovation engine that is gradually slowing down.

随着加密货币继续获得主流关注，价格飙升并达到新的里程碑，仔细研究揭示了行业内更深入的叙述。虽然外部宏观因素对价格前景有重大影响，影响着加密货币的整体轨迹，但更细致的分析揭示了雄心减弱和创新引擎逐渐放缓的故事。

Once upon a time, cryptocurrencies were driven by radical and world-changing ideas. Today, however, the industry appears to be content in its pursuit of regulatory approval and institutional adoption. This shift in ambition is palpable, and it begs the question: what happened to the grand visions and transformative aspirations?

曾几何时，加密货币是由激进的、改变世界的想法驱动的。然而如今，该行业似乎满足于寻求监管批准和机构采用。这种雄心的转变是显而易见的，它引出了一个问题：宏伟的愿景和变革的愿望发生了什么？

As Vitalik Buterin himself noted in his 2023 blog post, Reclaiming the Cypherpunk Spirit of Ethereum, the goal extends far beyond merely creating isolated tools or games. The broader aim is to build a more free and open society and economy, where different aspects of technology, society, and the economy can be synergistically integrated.

正如 Vitalik Buterin 本人在其 2023 年博客文章《重拾以太坊的密码朋克精神》中指出的那样，其目标远远超出了仅仅创建孤立的工具或游戏。更广泛的目标是建立一个更加自由和开放的社会和经济，技术、社会和经济的不同方面可以协同整合。

Consider this: what truly defines the innovation of the current crypto cycle? One aspect that readily comes to mind is the convergence of AI and crypto. However, upon closer examination, this integration can be largely attributed to external factors. Without the advancements in AI, this cycle might have unfolded differently, perhaps continuing to focus on the mania surrounding meme coins.

考虑一下：什么真正定义了当前加密周期的创新？人们很容易想到的一个方面是人工智能和加密货币的融合。然而，仔细分析后发现，这种整合在很大程度上可以归因于外部因素。如果没有人工智能的进步，这个周期可能会以不同的方式展开，也许会继续关注围绕模因币的狂热。

The sole aspiration of memecoins, such as Shiba Inu (SHIB) and Dogecoin (DOGE), is to facilitate rapid wealth accumulation, not to spearhead any grander world-changing endeavors. Once enriched, the plight of the external world no longer seems to faze these participants. It is noteworthy that proclamations such as “[project name] is the most egalitarian thing we have ever seen. It is ambitious and, if successful, can truly reshape the fabric of society” are no longer frequently encountered.

柴犬（SHIB）和狗狗币（DOGE）等模因币的唯一愿望是促进财富的快速积累，而不是引领任何更宏大的改变世界的努力。一旦丰富起来，外部世界的困境似乎不再让这些参与者感到困扰。值得注意的是，诸如“[项目名称]是我们见过的最平等的事情。它雄心勃勃，如果成功的话，可以真正重塑社会结构”，但现在已经不再经常遇到了。

In contrast, the previous crypto cycle witnessed the emergence of several radical innovations, including decentralized finance (DeFi), non-fungible tokens (NFTs), DeFi yield farms, P2E games (e.g., Axie Infinity), and the metaverse.

相比之下，之前的加密周期见证了一些激进创新的出现，包括去中心化金融（DeFi）、不可替代代币（NFT）、DeFi收益农场、P2E游戏（例如Axie Infinity）和元宇宙。

The 2020-2021 cycle also marked the peak of innovation in token economics, with the introduction of novel concepts such as Ampleforth's rebasing tokens, veTokenomics, the (3,3) model, liquidity mining, SNX as sUSD collateral, and a diverse range of algorithmic stablecoins.

2020-2021 年周期也标志着代币经济学的创新高峰，引入了一些新颖的概念，例如 Ampleforth 的 rebasing 代币、veTokenomics、(3,3) 模型、流动性挖矿、SNX 作为 sUSD 抵押品以及各种算法稳定币。

However, current crypto projects and the venture capital firms that back them now tend to adopt simple and proven economic models to minimize risk, especially considering that most projects typically only get one chance at a token generation event (TGE). EIGEN's Intersubjective Token is a rare and innovative exception to this trend.

然而，当前的加密货币项目和支持它们的风险投资公司现在倾向于采用简单且经过验证的经济模型来最大程度地降低风险，特别是考虑到大多数项目通常在代币生成事件（TGE）中只有一次机会。 EIGEN 的主体间代币是这一趋势中罕见且创新的例外。

In comparison, the ICO boom of 2017 is widely regarded as the zenith of the crypto industry's ambitions, with numerous projects attempting to decentralize everything. However, being overly radical, most of these endeavors ultimately failed, with only a select few managing to survive and tone down their grandiose visions.

相比之下，2017 年的 ICO 热潮被广泛认为是加密货币行业野心的顶峰，无数项目试图去中心化一切。然而，由于过于激进，大多数这些努力最终都失败了，只有少数人设法生存并淡化了他们宏伟的愿景。

These outlandish ideas now struggle to secure funding in today's more risk-averse crypto industry. Yet, back in the day, these radical concepts attracted a group of people who dared to dream of changing the world.

这些古怪的想法现在很难在当今更加规避风险的加密行业中获得资金。然而，在当时，这些激进的概念吸引了一群敢于梦想改变世界的人。

In their book Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnation, B. Hobart and T. Huber posit that transformative progress often originates from small groups united by a common vision, usually with substantial funding but minimal strict accountability. They assert that while financial bubbles are generally perceived negatively, history reveals that many important breakthroughs were, in fact, driven by bubbles.

B. Hobart 和 T. Huber 在他们的著作《繁荣：泡沫与停滞的终结》中指出，变革性的进步往往源自由共同愿景团结起来的小团体，通常拥有大量资金，但严格的问责制却很少。他们断言，虽然金融泡沫通常被认为是负面的，但历史表明，许多重要的突破实际上是由泡沫推动的。

Although the days of low accountability may not be entirely over, with regulation comes greater risk aversion. This cycle might be the last chance for a big bubble that can still propel substantial innovation. The AI x Crypto bubble could still yield at least one or two killer applications.

尽管低问责制的时代可能还没有完全结束，但监管带来了更大的风险厌恶情绪。这个周期可能是仍然可以推动实质性创新的大泡沫的最后机会。人工智能 x 加密货币泡沫仍可能产生至少一两个杀手级应用。

Despite the above observations, there are still many ambitious cryptocurrency projects in the works today, including:

尽管有上述观察，当今仍有许多雄心勃勃的加密货币项目正在进行中，包括：

Ethena: A platform that integrates DeFi, CeFi, and traditional finance (TradFi)

Ethena：一个融合 DeFi、CeFi 和传统金融（TradFi）的平台

Chainlink: A bridge between blockchain and real-world data for immutable smart contracts

Chainlink：区块链和不可变智能合约的现实世界数据之间的桥梁

Pudgy Penguins: A leading Web3 IP brand that is expanding into Web2

Pudgy Penguins：领先的 Web3 IP 品牌，正在扩展到 Web2

WorldCoin: An initiative to bring everyone on-chain, potentially enabling UBI funded by AI

WorldCoin：一项让每个人都上链的举措，有可能实现由人工智能资助的 UBI

Liquity/RAI: The final decentralized stablecoin

流动性/RAI：最终的去中心化稳定币

Arweave/Filecoin: Permanent storage and censorship resistance

Arweave/Filecoin：永久存储和抗审查

Farcaster/Lens: A reimagined approach to social media

Farcaster/Lens：重新构想的社交媒体方法

Polymarket: A source of truth in a world of fake news

Polymarket：假新闻世界中的真相来源

Bio protocol (DeSci): Revolutionizing science by changing incentives

生物协议（DeSci）：通过改变激励措施彻底改变科学

Bitcoin: Revolutionary currency, digital goldAmong these projects, endeavors like WorldCoin's eye-scanning Orb and Liquity v2 and $BOLD stablecoins, while radical, embody the precise risks that ambitious protocols are willing to take. These projects champion the most egalitarian ideas and, if successful, have the potential to

比特币：革命性货币、数字黄金在这些项目中，像 WorldCoin 的眼球扫描 Orb 和 Liquity v2 以及 $BOLD 稳定币这样的尝试虽然激进，但体现了雄心勃勃的协议愿意承担的确切风险。这些项目倡导最平等的想法，如果成功，有可能