加密貨幣：創新與風險規避的困境

從表面上看，加密貨幣似乎正在蓬勃發展：經過多年的排斥，現貨ETF終於上線，比特幣（BTC）和以太幣（ETH）

As cryptocurrencies continue to gain mainstream attention, with soaring prices and new milestones being reached, a closer examination reveals a deeper narrative unfolding within the industry. While the external macro factors contribute significantly to the price outlook, impacting the overall trajectory of cryptocurrencies, a more nuanced analysis unveils a tale of waning ambition and an innovation engine that is gradually slowing down.

隨著加密貨幣繼續獲得主流關注，價格飆升並達到新的里程碑，仔細研究揭示了行業內更深入的敘述。雖然外部宏觀因素對價格前景有重大影響，影響著加密貨幣的整體軌跡，但更細緻的分析揭示了雄心減弱和創新引擎逐漸放緩的故事。

Once upon a time, cryptocurrencies were driven by radical and world-changing ideas. Today, however, the industry appears to be content in its pursuit of regulatory approval and institutional adoption. This shift in ambition is palpable, and it begs the question: what happened to the grand visions and transformative aspirations?

曾幾何時，加密貨幣是由激進的、改變世界的想法所驅動的。然而如今，該行業似乎滿足於尋求監管批准和機構採用。這種雄心壯志的轉變是顯而易見的，它引出了一個問題：宏偉的願景和變革的願望發生了什麼？

As Vitalik Buterin himself noted in his 2023 blog post, Reclaiming the Cypherpunk Spirit of Ethereum, the goal extends far beyond merely creating isolated tools or games. The broader aim is to build a more free and open society and economy, where different aspects of technology, society, and the economy can be synergistically integrated.

正如 Vitalik Buterin 本人在 2023 年部落格文章《重拾以太坊的密碼龐克精神》中指出的那樣，其目標遠遠超出了僅僅創建孤立的工具或遊戲。更廣泛的目標是建立一個更自由和開放的社會和經濟，技術、社會和經濟的不同面向可以協同整合。

Consider this: what truly defines the innovation of the current crypto cycle? One aspect that readily comes to mind is the convergence of AI and crypto. However, upon closer examination, this integration can be largely attributed to external factors. Without the advancements in AI, this cycle might have unfolded differently, perhaps continuing to focus on the mania surrounding meme coins.

考慮一下：什麼真正定義了當前加密週期的創新？人們很容易想到的一個面向是人工智慧和加密貨幣的融合。然而，仔細分析後發現，這種整合在很大程度上可以歸因於外在因素。如果沒有人工智慧的進步，這個週期可能會以不同的方式展開，也許會繼續關注圍繞著迷因幣的狂熱。

The sole aspiration of memecoins, such as Shiba Inu (SHIB) and Dogecoin (DOGE), is to facilitate rapid wealth accumulation, not to spearhead any grander world-changing endeavors. Once enriched, the plight of the external world no longer seems to faze these participants. It is noteworthy that proclamations such as “[project name] is the most egalitarian thing we have ever seen. It is ambitious and, if successful, can truly reshape the fabric of society” are no longer frequently encountered.

柴犬（SHIB）和狗狗幣（DOGE）等模因幣的唯一願望是促進財富的快速積累，而不是引領任何更宏大的改變世界的努力。一旦豐富起來，外在世界的困境似乎不再讓這些參與者感到困擾。值得注意的是，諸如“[項目名稱]是我們見過的最平等的事情。它雄心勃勃，如果成功的話，可以真正重塑社會結構”，但現在已經不再經常遇到了。

In contrast, the previous crypto cycle witnessed the emergence of several radical innovations, including decentralized finance (DeFi), non-fungible tokens (NFTs), DeFi yield farms, P2E games (e.g., Axie Infinity), and the metaverse.

相較之下，先前的加密週期見證了一些激進創新的出現，包括去中心化金融（DeFi）、不可替代代幣（NFT）、DeFi收益農場、P2E遊戲（例如Axie Infinity）和元宇宙。

The 2020-2021 cycle also marked the peak of innovation in token economics, with the introduction of novel concepts such as Ampleforth's rebasing tokens, veTokenomics, the (3,3) model, liquidity mining, SNX as sUSD collateral, and a diverse range of algorithmic stablecoins.

2020-2021 年週期也標誌著代幣經濟學的創新高峰，引入了一些新穎的概念，例如Ampleforth 的rebasing 代幣、veTokenomics、(3,3) 模型、流動性挖礦、SNX 作為sUSD 抵押品以及各種演算法穩定幣。

However, current crypto projects and the venture capital firms that back them now tend to adopt simple and proven economic models to minimize risk, especially considering that most projects typically only get one chance at a token generation event (TGE). EIGEN's Intersubjective Token is a rare and innovative exception to this trend.

然而，目前的加密貨幣專案和支持它們的創投公司現在傾向於採用簡單且經過驗證的經濟模型來最大程度地降低風險，特別是考慮到大多數專案通常在代幣生成事件（TGE）中只有一次機會。 EIGEN 的主體間代幣是這一趨勢中罕見且創新的例外。

In comparison, the ICO boom of 2017 is widely regarded as the zenith of the crypto industry's ambitions, with numerous projects attempting to decentralize everything. However, being overly radical, most of these endeavors ultimately failed, with only a select few managing to survive and tone down their grandiose visions.

相較之下，2017 年的 ICO 熱潮被廣泛認為是加密貨幣產業野心的頂峰，無數項目試圖去中心化一切。然而，由於過於激進，大多數這些努力最終都失敗了，只有少數人設法生存並淡化了他們宏偉的願景。

These outlandish ideas now struggle to secure funding in today's more risk-averse crypto industry. Yet, back in the day, these radical concepts attracted a group of people who dared to dream of changing the world.

這些古怪的想法現在很難在當今更規避風險的加密產業中獲得資金。然而，在當時，這些激進的概念吸引了一群敢於夢想改變世界的人。

In their book Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnation, B. Hobart and T. Huber posit that transformative progress often originates from small groups united by a common vision, usually with substantial funding but minimal strict accountability. They assert that while financial bubbles are generally perceived negatively, history reveals that many important breakthroughs were, in fact, driven by bubbles.

B. Hobart 和T. Huber 在他們的著作《繁榮：泡沫與停滯的終結》中指出，變革性的進步往往源自由共同願景團結起來​​的小團體，通常擁有大量資金，但嚴格的問責制卻很少。他們斷言，雖然金融泡沫通常被認為是負面的，但歷史表明，許多重要的突破實際上是由泡沫推動的。

Although the days of low accountability may not be entirely over, with regulation comes greater risk aversion. This cycle might be the last chance for a big bubble that can still propel substantial innovation. The AI x Crypto bubble could still yield at least one or two killer applications.

儘管低問責制的時代可能還沒有完全結束，但監管帶來了更大的風險厭惡。這個週期可能是仍然可以推動實質創新的大泡沫的最後機會。人工智慧 x 加密貨幣泡沫仍可能產生至少一兩個殺手級應用程式。

Despite the above observations, there are still many ambitious cryptocurrency projects in the works today, including:

儘管有上述觀察，當今仍有許多雄心勃勃的加密貨幣項目正在進行中，包括：

Ethena: A platform that integrates DeFi, CeFi, and traditional finance (TradFi)

Ethena：一個融合 DeFi、CeFi 和傳統金融（TradFi）的平台

Chainlink: A bridge between blockchain and real-world data for immutable smart contracts

Chainlink：區塊鏈和不可變智能合約的現實世界數據之間的橋樑

Pudgy Penguins: A leading Web3 IP brand that is expanding into Web2

Pudgy Penguins：領先的 Web3 IP 品牌，正在擴展到 Web2

WorldCoin: An initiative to bring everyone on-chain, potentially enabling UBI funded by AI

WorldCoin：一項讓每個人都上鍊的舉措，有可能實現由人工智慧資助的 UBI

Liquity/RAI: The final decentralized stablecoin

流動性/RAI：最終的去中心化穩定幣

Arweave/Filecoin: Permanent storage and censorship resistance

Arweave/Filecoin：永久儲存和抗審查

Farcaster/Lens: A reimagined approach to social media

Farcaster/Lens：重新構想的社群媒體方法

Polymarket: A source of truth in a world of fake news

Polymarket：假新聞世界中的真相來源

Bio protocol (DeSci): Revolutionizing science by changing incentives

生物協議（DeSci）：透過改變激勵措施徹底改變科學

Bitcoin: Revolutionary currency, digital goldAmong these projects, endeavors like WorldCoin's eye-scanning Orb and Liquity v2 and $BOLD stablecoins, while radical, embody the precise risks that ambitious protocols are willing to take. These projects champion the most egalitarian ideas and, if successful, have the potential to

比特幣：革命性貨幣、數位黃金在這些項目中，像 WorldCoin 的眼球掃描 Orb 和 Liquity v2 以及 $BOLD 穩定幣這樣的嘗試雖然激進，但體現了雄心勃勃的協議願意承擔的確​​切風險。這些計畫倡導最平等的想法，如果成功，有可能