加密货币风险市场将在 2024 年升温，反映出 2021 年的繁荣

2024 年第一季度，加密货币风险投资领域的资金激增，加密货币和区块链领域筹集了 25.2 亿美元，比上一季度增长了 25%。这种激增是由积极情绪、法律胜利和对加密货币的需求增加推动的。风险投资公司正在积极投资 DeFi、SocialFi、比特币第二层增长和人工智能等领域的初创公司，而估值呈上升趋势。创始人友好的动态正在出现，初创公司在融资中利用其议价能力。随着代币发行量的增加，代币经济格局也在不断发展。随着时间的推移，融资空间预计将保持活跃，预计到年底融资总额将超过 100 亿美元。

With the dawn of 2024, the crypto venture landscape is witnessing a resurgence of activity, mirroring the effervescence observed in the heady days of 2021. The first quarter of 2024 has witnessed a significant influx of capital, amounting to $2.52 billion, marking a 25% increase compared to the $2.02 billion accrued in the preceding quarter of 2023, according to data collated by PitchBook.

随着 2024 年的到来，加密货币风险投资领域的活动正在复苏，与 2021 年令人兴奋的日子中所观察到的繁荣景象如出一辙。2024 年第一季度资本大量涌入，金额达 25.2 亿美元，占总投资额的 25%根据 PitchBook 整理的数据，与 2023 年上一季度的 20.2 亿美元相比有所增加。

This resurgence has not escaped the notice of industry experts, with Tom Schmidt, a partner at Dragonfly Capital, aptly likening the current climate to "the part where the bubbles start to form right before water boils."

这种复苏并没有逃过行业专家的注意，蜻蜓资本(Dragonfly Capital)的合伙人汤姆·施密特(Tom Schmidt)恰当地将当前的气候比作“水沸腾之前泡沫开始形成的部分”。

Echoing this sentiment, David Nage, portfolio manager at Arca, remarked that the market is experiencing an extraordinary surge in activity, akin to the "2021 feels" when "deals felt like you had a gun to the back of your head." Nage further noted that his firm has tracked over 690 deals across various stages during Q1, representing a substantial increase of 30 to 40% compared to the lows of 2023.

Arca 的投资组合经理 David Nage 呼应了这种观点，他表示，市场正在经历异常活跃的激增，类似于“2021 年的感觉”，当时“交易感觉就像有人用枪指着你的后脑勺”。 Nage 进一步指出，他的公司在第一季度跟踪了各个阶段的 690 多笔交易，与 2023 年的低点相比大幅增长了 30% 至 40%。

Underlying this renewed enthusiasm are several key factors, including the positive outcomes from legal battles waged by Ripple and Grayscale in the previous year, as well as a growing sentiment of optimism surrounding decentralized finance (DeFi) on Solana. Notably, the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs in the US has also fueled demand for the world's largest cryptocurrency.

这种新的热情背后有几个关键因素，包括去年 Ripple 和 Grayscale 发起的法律诉讼所取得的积极成果，以及围绕 Solana 上的去中心化金融 (DeFi) 的乐观情绪日益高涨。值得注意的是，现货比特币ETF在美国的批准也刺激了对全球最大加密货币的需求。

Moreover, the resilience of the crypto market has contributed to this upswing, as Nage observed, "We didn't die. I know it's funny to say this, but after the [collapse of] LUNA, BlockFi, FTX, the banking crisis, the thought was that we would die and we didn't."

此外，正如 Nage 观察到的那样，加密货币市场的弹性也促成了这种上涨，“我们没有死。我知道这样说很有趣，但在 LUNA、BlockFi、FTX 崩溃、银行业危机之后，当时的想法是我们会死，但我们没有死。”

This momentum is expected to endure, according to crypto venture capitalists, bolstered by macroeconomic factors such as the launch of crypto ETF products, the impending Bitcoin halving, and anticipated interest rate cuts in the US ahead of the upcoming presidential election. Additionally, institutional interest is beginning to translate into tangible commitments and product offerings.

加密风险投资家表示，由于加密 ETF 产品的推出、即将到来的比特币减半以及美国在即将到来的总统选举之前预期降息等宏观经济因素的支撑，这种势头预计将持续下去。此外，机构兴趣开始转化为切实的承诺和产品供应。

Deal flow has accelerated across diverse sectors, from DeFi to SocialFi to Bitcoin layer-2 growth. Nage reported a surge of 30 to 40 deals on a weekly basis, which represents a 10% to 20% increase over the previous quarter.

从 DeFi 到 SocialFi，再到比特币第二层的增长，各个领域的交易流量都在加速增长。 Nage 报告称，每周交易量激增 30 至 40 笔，比上一季度增加 10% 至 20%。

SocialFi, a burgeoning sector that encompasses decentralized social media platforms, has emerged as a particularly hot area. Bi.social's recent $3 million funding round and Mask Network's $100 million fund to support similar applications exemplify this trend. The success of decentralized social app networks like Farcaster, which leverages Web2.0 techniques to attract new users, has contributed to this growth.

SocialFi 是一个包含去中心化社交媒体平台的新兴行业，已成为一个特别热门的领域。 Bi.social 最近为支持类似应用程序而进行的 300 万美元融资和 Mask Network 的 1 亿美元基金都体现了这一趋势。像 Farcaster 这样利用 Web2.0 技术吸引新用户的去中心化社交应用网络的成功推动了这一增长。

Web3 gaming is another rapidly expanding segment, with hundreds of new games anticipated to enter the market later this year. Furthermore, the convergence of crypto and AI, blockchains, and zero-knowledge technologies has attracted the attention of venture capitalists.

Web3 游戏是另一个快速扩张的领域，预计今年晚些时候将有数百种新游戏进入市场。此外，加密货币与人工智能、区块链和零知识技术的融合吸引了风险投资家的关注。

Schmidt emphasized the "red hot" status of crypto and AI, blockchains, and zero-knowledge-related endeavors. Tekin Salimi, founder of dao5, anticipates this trend to persist "for the foreseeable future" given the grand expectations for AI's transformative impact on the global economy.

施密特强调了加密货币和人工智能、区块链以及零知识相关努力的“炙手可热”状态。鉴于人们对人工智能对全球经济产生变革性影响的巨大期望，dao5 创始人 Tekin Salimi 预计这一趋势将在“可预见的未来”持续存在。

For instance, modular and AI-integrated blockchains like 0G labs, which recently launched with a $35 million pre-seed round, are attracting investor interest.

例如，模块化和人工智能集成的区块链（例如 0G labs）最近推出了 3500 万美元的种子轮融资，吸引了投资者的兴趣。

This upswing in activity has created a founder-friendly environment, with early-stage startups enjoying greater negotiating power in fundraising. Michael Anderson, co-founder of Framework Ventures, acknowledges the abundance of "hungry money" currently available.

这种活动的增加创造了一个对创始人友好的环境，早期初创公司在融资方面享有更大的谈判能力。 Framework Ventures 联合创始人迈克尔·安德森 (Michael Anderson) 承认目前存在大量“饥饿资金”。

Marthe Naudts, associate at White Star Capital's Digital Asset Fund, explains that investors are now actively pitching their value in oversubscribed rounds, a departure from the previous paradigm. This shift in dynamics has bestowed founders with more favorable terms and the ability to dictate conditions, leading to competitive rounds concluding before investors have ample time for due diligence.

White Star Capital 数字资产基金合伙人 Marthe Naudts 解释说，投资者现在正在超额认购的几轮中积极宣传其价值，这与之前的模式背道而驰。这种动态的转变赋予了创始人更优惠的条款和决定条件的能力，导致竞争性回合在投资者有足够的时间进行尽职调查之前结束。

However, Felix stresses that the balance between founders and investors remains largely intact, describing the current situation as "perfectly balanced" for both parties. Founders are benefiting from more urgent funding rounds and slightly higher valuations than recently experienced, while VCs are securing more protective and advantageous deal structures.

然而，菲利克斯强调，创始人和投资者之间的平衡基本上保持不变，并将目前的情况描述为双方“完美平衡”。创始人正受益于比最近经历的更紧急的融资轮次和略高的估值，而风险投资公司正在确保更具保护性和更有利的交易结构。

Despite these positive indicators, there are disparities based on team quality and sector, as Schmidt points out. Some startups that raised capital during the previous market cycle are now facing downrounds or extensions, while others, particularly in the crypto and AI sectors, are attracting valuations of $300 million or more.

正如施密特指出的，尽管有这些积极的指标，但团队质量和部门之间仍存在差异。一些在上一个市场周期筹集资金的初创公司现在面临融资或延期，而其他公司，特别是在加密货币和人工智能领域，则吸引了 3 亿美元或更多的估值。

Pre-seed rounds in crypto consumer ventures typically secure valuations below $10 million, while founders in sectors like crypto and AI can expect valuations of $300 million or higher. PredX, an AI-enabled prediction market, raised $500,000 with a $20 million post-money valuation, according to Messari data. CharacterX, a web3 AI social network, closed a $2.8 million seed round at a $30 million post-money valuation.

加密消费者企业的种子轮前估值通常会低于 1000 万美元，而加密货币和人工智能等行业的创始人预计估值可达 3 亿美元或更高。根据 Messari 的数据，基于人工智能的预测市场 PredX 筹集了 50 万美元，投后估值为 2000 万美元。 CharacterX 是一个 web3 AI 社交网络，以 3000 万美元的投后估值完成了 280 万美元的种子轮融资。

Seed rounds typically yield pre-money valuations of $25 million to $40 million, with several startups securing $80 million market valuations at this stage, according to Nage. Schmidt estimates the average seed round valuation to range from $30 million to $60 million post-money.

Nage 表示，种子轮融资的投前估值通常为 2500 万至 4000 万美元，其中几家初创公司在此阶段获得了 8000 万美元的市场估值。 Schmidt 估计种子轮融资后的平均估值在 3000 万美元到 6000 万美元之间。

Anderson acknowledges a significant increase in valuations, even surpassing the levels commanded by established firms that may have rejected similar deals in the past. He cautions that some of the valuations being touted are already excessive, given the early stage of the current cycle.

安德森承认估值大幅上升，甚至超过了过去可能拒绝类似交易的老牌公司的水平。他警告说，考虑到当前周期的早期阶段，一些被吹捧的估值已经过高。

Schmidt advises caution when interpreting market trends based solely on fundraising announcements, as they often trail the actual fundraising process by many months or even a year. He observes that funding rounds that would have faced protracted negotiations or outright rejection in the previous year are now being secured in weeks or less, with more favorable terms for founders.

施密特建议仅根据筹款公告来解释市场趋势时要谨慎，因为它们通常会落后实际筹款过程数月甚至一年。他观察到，在去年可能面临旷日持久的谈判或彻底拒绝的融资轮次现在可以在几周或更短的时间内完成，而且对创始人的条件更为有利。

This valuation shift is also driven by sentiment surrounding cryptocurrency prices, with Bitcoin reaching all-time highs, Solana surpassing $200, and Ether approaching $4,000, a significant catalyst for positive sentiment, according to Nage.

Nage 表示，这种估值转变也是由围绕加密货币价格的情绪推动的，比特币达到历史新高，Solana 突破 200 美元，以太币接近 4,000 美元，这是积极情绪的重要催化剂。

Seed rounds continue to offer the most accessible entry point for founders, with numerous small funds and angel investors willing to provide early-stage capital. However, Felix anticipates a slow improvement in the graduation rate from seed to Series A, which has declined from the upper 20% range to the mid-teens.

种子轮继续为创始人提供最容易进入的切入点，众多小型基金和天使投资者愿意提供早期资本。然而，Felix 预计从种子轮到 A 轮的毕业率会缓慢提高，从 20% 以上的范围下降到十几岁左右。

Venture capitalists are wary of falling prey to higher valuations driven by FOMO, yet they recognize the folly of inaction. Thomas Tang, VP of investments at Ryze Labs, notes that it is common for rounds to become oversubscribed within days of reaching the market, with allocations denied or deferred to subsequent rounds at higher valuations.

风险投资家担心自己会成为因“错失恐惧症”而导致估值上升的牺牲品，但他们也认识到不采取行动的愚蠢行为。 Ryze Labs 投资副总裁 Thomas Tang 指出，各轮融资在上市后几天内就出现超额认购的情况很常见，分配被拒绝或推迟到估值较高的后续轮次。

In a notable development, the tokenomic concept has re-emerged since the end of 2023, with Nage reporting that many companies and industry peers are exploring tokenomic designs for 2024. This shift marks a departure from the mid-2022 era, when most seed deals were financed with Simple Agreement for Future Equity (SAFE) or warrants.

一个显着的进展是，代币经济概念自 2023 年底以来重新出现，Nage 报告称，许多公司和行业同行正在探索 2024 年的代币经济设计。这一转变标志着与 2022 年中期时代的背离，当时大多数种子交易通过未来股权简单协议（SAFE）或认股权证进行融资。

"This new issuance phase is driven by valuations that have shifted violently," Nage explained.

“这个新的发行阶段是由估值剧烈变化推动的，”内奇解释道。

This dynamic has led venture capitalists to accept "lofty valuations in private rounds since they expect that the tokens will be traded publicly at a significant markup," according to Tang.

唐表示，这种动态导致风险投资家接受“私募轮中的高估值，因为他们预计代币将以大幅加价公开交易”。

While SAFE rounds continue to occur, Schmidt indicates that the market has coalesced around a combination of priced equity rounds and token structures, providing investors with protection while granting teams flexibility.

尽管 SAFE 轮继续进行，但施密特表示，市场已经围绕定价股权轮和代币结构的组合结合起来，为投资者提供保护，同时赋予团队灵活性。

Clay Robbins, co-founder of accelerator and venture capital fund Colosseum, highlights the challenges faced by teams pursuing traditional business models. Crypto-native VCs, drawn by the potential for token trades and early liquidity, heavily favor this approach, while generalist investors remain somewhat skeptical.

加速器和风险投资基金 Colosseum 的联合创始人 Clay Robbins 强调了追求传统商业模式的团队所面临的挑战。加密货币原生风险投资公司受到代币交易和早期流动性潜力的吸引，非常青睐这种方法，而普通投资者仍然有些怀疑。

Despite the long-term performance of these tokens remaining uncertain, Naudts acknowledges the

尽管这些代币的长期表现仍不确定，但 Naudts 承认