加密貨幣風險市場將在 2024 年升溫，反映出 2021 年的繁榮

2024 年第一季度，加密貨幣創投領域的資金激增，加密貨幣和區塊鏈領域籌集了 25.2 億美元，比上一季成長了 25%。這種激增是由積極情緒、法律勝利和對加密貨幣的需求增加所推動的。創投公司正積極投資 DeFi、SocialFi、比特幣第二層成長和人工智慧等領域的新創公司，而估值呈現上升趨勢。創辦人友善的動態正在出現，新創公司在融資中利用其議價能力。隨著代幣發行量的增加，代幣經濟格局也不斷發展。隨著時間的推移，融資空間預計將保持活躍，預計到年底融資總額將超過 100 億美元。

With the dawn of 2024, the crypto venture landscape is witnessing a resurgence of activity, mirroring the effervescence observed in the heady days of 2021. The first quarter of 2024 has witnessed a significant influx of capital, amounting to $2.52 billion, marking a 25% increase compared to the $2.02 billion accrued in the preceding quarter of 2023, according to data collated by PitchBook.

隨著2024 年的到來，加密貨幣創投領域的活動正在復蘇，與2021 年令人興奮的日子中所觀察到的繁榮景像如出一轍。2024 年第一季資本大量湧入，金額達25.2 億美元，佔總投資額的25%根據 PitchBook 整理的數據，與 2023 年上一季的 20.2 億美元相比有所增加。

This resurgence has not escaped the notice of industry experts, with Tom Schmidt, a partner at Dragonfly Capital, aptly likening the current climate to "the part where the bubbles start to form right before water boils."

這種復甦並沒有逃過業界專家的注意，蜻蜓資本(Dragonfly Capital)的合夥人湯姆·施密特(Tom Schmidt)恰當地將當前的氣候比作「水沸騰之前泡沫開始形成的部分」。

Echoing this sentiment, David Nage, portfolio manager at Arca, remarked that the market is experiencing an extraordinary surge in activity, akin to the "2021 feels" when "deals felt like you had a gun to the back of your head." Nage further noted that his firm has tracked over 690 deals across various stages during Q1, representing a substantial increase of 30 to 40% compared to the lows of 2023.

Arca 的投資組合經理 David Nage 呼應了這種觀點，他表示，市場正在經歷異常活躍的激增，類似於“2021 年的感覺”，當時“交易感覺就像有人用槍指著你的後腦勺”。 Nage 進一步指出，他的公司在第一季追蹤了各個階段的 690 多筆交易，與 2023 年的低點相比大幅成長了 30% 至 40%。

Underlying this renewed enthusiasm are several key factors, including the positive outcomes from legal battles waged by Ripple and Grayscale in the previous year, as well as a growing sentiment of optimism surrounding decentralized finance (DeFi) on Solana. Notably, the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs in the US has also fueled demand for the world's largest cryptocurrency.

這種新的熱情背後有幾個關鍵因素，包括去年 Ripple 和 Grayscale 發起的法律訴訟所取得的積極成果，以及圍繞 Solana 上的去中心化金融 (DeFi) 的樂觀情緒日益高漲。值得注意的是，現貨比特幣ETF在美國的批准也刺激了對全球最大加密貨幣的需求。

Moreover, the resilience of the crypto market has contributed to this upswing, as Nage observed, "We didn't die. I know it's funny to say this, but after the [collapse of] LUNA, BlockFi, FTX, the banking crisis, the thought was that we would die and we didn't."

此外，正如 Nage 觀察到的那樣，加密貨幣市場的彈性也促成了這種上漲，「我們沒有死。我知道這樣說很有趣，但在 LUNA、BlockFi、FTX 崩潰、銀行業危機之後，當時的想法是我們會死，但我們沒有死。”

This momentum is expected to endure, according to crypto venture capitalists, bolstered by macroeconomic factors such as the launch of crypto ETF products, the impending Bitcoin halving, and anticipated interest rate cuts in the US ahead of the upcoming presidential election. Additionally, institutional interest is beginning to translate into tangible commitments and product offerings.

加密創投家表示，由於加密 ETF 產品的推出、即將到來的比特幣減半以及美國在即將到來的總統選舉之前預期降息等宏觀經濟因素的支撐，這種勢頭預計將持續下去。此外，機構興趣開始轉化為實際的承諾和產品供應。

Deal flow has accelerated across diverse sectors, from DeFi to SocialFi to Bitcoin layer-2 growth. Nage reported a surge of 30 to 40 deals on a weekly basis, which represents a 10% to 20% increase over the previous quarter.

從 DeFi 到 SocialFi，再到比特幣第二層的成長，各領域的交易流量都在加速成長。 Nage 報告稱，每週交易量激增 30 至 40 筆，比上一季增加 10% 至 20%。

SocialFi, a burgeoning sector that encompasses decentralized social media platforms, has emerged as a particularly hot area. Bi.social's recent $3 million funding round and Mask Network's $100 million fund to support similar applications exemplify this trend. The success of decentralized social app networks like Farcaster, which leverages Web2.0 techniques to attract new users, has contributed to this growth.

SocialFi 是一個包含去中心化社群媒體平台的新興產業，已成為一個特別熱門的領域。 Bi.social 最近為支援類似應用程式而進行的 300 萬美元融資和 Mask Network 的 1 億美元基金都反映了這一趨勢。像 Farcaster 這樣利用 Web2.0 技術吸引新用戶的去中心化社群應用網路的成功推動了這一成長。

Web3 gaming is another rapidly expanding segment, with hundreds of new games anticipated to enter the market later this year. Furthermore, the convergence of crypto and AI, blockchains, and zero-knowledge technologies has attracted the attention of venture capitalists.

Web3 遊戲是另一個快速擴張的領域，預計今年稍後將有數百種新遊戲進入市場。此外，加密貨幣與人工智慧、區塊鏈和零知識技術的整合吸引了創投家的注意。

Schmidt emphasized the "red hot" status of crypto and AI, blockchains, and zero-knowledge-related endeavors. Tekin Salimi, founder of dao5, anticipates this trend to persist "for the foreseeable future" given the grand expectations for AI's transformative impact on the global economy.

施密特強調了加密貨幣和人工智慧、區塊鏈以及零知識相關努力的「炙手可熱」狀態。鑑於人們對人工智慧對全球經濟產生變革性影響的巨大期望，dao5 創辦人 Tekin Salimi 預計這一趨勢將在「可預見的未來」持續存在。

For instance, modular and AI-integrated blockchains like 0G labs, which recently launched with a $35 million pre-seed round, are attracting investor interest.

例如，模組化和人工智慧整合的區塊鏈（例如 0G labs）最近推出了 3500 萬美元的種子輪融資，吸引了投資者的興趣。

This upswing in activity has created a founder-friendly environment, with early-stage startups enjoying greater negotiating power in fundraising. Michael Anderson, co-founder of Framework Ventures, acknowledges the abundance of "hungry money" currently available.

這種活動的增加創造了一個對創辦人友善的環境，早期新創公司在融資方面享有更大的談判能力。 Framework Ventures 聯合創始人 Michael Anderson 承認目前存在大量「飢餓資金」。

Marthe Naudts, associate at White Star Capital's Digital Asset Fund, explains that investors are now actively pitching their value in oversubscribed rounds, a departure from the previous paradigm. This shift in dynamics has bestowed founders with more favorable terms and the ability to dictate conditions, leading to competitive rounds concluding before investors have ample time for due diligence.

White Star Capital 數位資產基金合夥人 Marthe Naudts 解釋說，投資者現在正在超額認購的幾輪中積極宣傳其價值，這與之前的模式背道而馳。這種動態的轉變賦予了創辦人更優惠的條款和決定條件的能力，導致競爭性回合在投資者有足夠的時間進行盡職調查之前結束。

However, Felix stresses that the balance between founders and investors remains largely intact, describing the current situation as "perfectly balanced" for both parties. Founders are benefiting from more urgent funding rounds and slightly higher valuations than recently experienced, while VCs are securing more protective and advantageous deal structures.

然而，菲利克斯強調，創辦人和投資者之間的平衡基本上保持不變，並將目前的情況描述為雙方「完美平衡」。創辦人正受益於比最近經歷的更緊急的融資輪次和略高的估值，而創投公司正在確保更具保護性和更有利的交易結構。

Despite these positive indicators, there are disparities based on team quality and sector, as Schmidt points out. Some startups that raised capital during the previous market cycle are now facing downrounds or extensions, while others, particularly in the crypto and AI sectors, are attracting valuations of $300 million or more.

正如施密特所指出的，儘管有這些積極的指標，但團隊品質和部門之間仍有差異。一些在上一個市場週期籌集資金的新創公司現在面臨融資或延期，而其他公司，特別是在加密貨幣和人工智慧領域，則吸引了 3 億美元或更多的估值。

Pre-seed rounds in crypto consumer ventures typically secure valuations below $10 million, while founders in sectors like crypto and AI can expect valuations of $300 million or higher. PredX, an AI-enabled prediction market, raised $500,000 with a $20 million post-money valuation, according to Messari data. CharacterX, a web3 AI social network, closed a $2.8 million seed round at a $30 million post-money valuation.

加密消費者企業的種子輪前估值通常會低於 1000 萬美元，而加密貨幣和人工智慧等行業的創始人預計估值可達 3 億美元或更高。根據 Messari 的數據，基於人工智慧的預測市場 PredX 籌集了 50 萬美元，投後估值為 2000 萬美元。 CharacterX 是一個 web3 AI 社交網絡，以 3000 萬美元的投後估值完成了 280 萬美元的種子輪融資。

Seed rounds typically yield pre-money valuations of $25 million to $40 million, with several startups securing $80 million market valuations at this stage, according to Nage. Schmidt estimates the average seed round valuation to range from $30 million to $60 million post-money.

Nage 表示，種子輪融資的投前估值通常為 2,500 萬至 4,000 萬美元，其中幾家新創公司在此階段獲得了 8,000 萬美元的市場估值。 Schmidt 估計種子輪融資後的平均估值在 3,000 萬美元到 6,000 萬美元之間。

Anderson acknowledges a significant increase in valuations, even surpassing the levels commanded by established firms that may have rejected similar deals in the past. He cautions that some of the valuations being touted are already excessive, given the early stage of the current cycle.

安德森承認估值大幅上升，甚至超過了過去可能拒絕類似交易的老牌公司的水平。他警告說，考慮到當前週期的早期階段，一些被吹捧的估值已經過高。

Schmidt advises caution when interpreting market trends based solely on fundraising announcements, as they often trail the actual fundraising process by many months or even a year. He observes that funding rounds that would have faced protracted negotiations or outright rejection in the previous year are now being secured in weeks or less, with more favorable terms for founders.

施密特建議僅根據籌款公告來解釋市場趨勢時要謹慎，因為它們通常會落後實際籌款過程數月甚至一年。他觀察到，在去年可能面臨曠日持久的談判或徹底拒絕的融資輪次現在可以在幾週或更短的時間內完成，而且對創始人的條件更為有利。

This valuation shift is also driven by sentiment surrounding cryptocurrency prices, with Bitcoin reaching all-time highs, Solana surpassing $200, and Ether approaching $4,000, a significant catalyst for positive sentiment, according to Nage.

Nage 表示，這種估值轉變也是由圍繞加密貨幣價格的情緒推動的，比特幣達到歷史新高，Solana 突破 200 美元，以太幣接近 4,000 美元，這是積極情緒的重要催化劑。

Seed rounds continue to offer the most accessible entry point for founders, with numerous small funds and angel investors willing to provide early-stage capital. However, Felix anticipates a slow improvement in the graduation rate from seed to Series A, which has declined from the upper 20% range to the mid-teens.

種子輪繼續為創辦人提供最容易進入的切入點，許多小型基金和天使投資者願意提供早期資本。然而，Felix 預計從種子輪到 A 輪的畢業率會緩慢提高，從 20% 以上的範圍下降到十幾歲左右。

Venture capitalists are wary of falling prey to higher valuations driven by FOMO, yet they recognize the folly of inaction. Thomas Tang, VP of investments at Ryze Labs, notes that it is common for rounds to become oversubscribed within days of reaching the market, with allocations denied or deferred to subsequent rounds at higher valuations.

創投家擔心自己會成為因「錯失恐懼症」而導致估值上升的犧牲品，但他們也意識到不採取行動的愚蠢行為。 Ryze Labs 投資副總裁 Thomas Tang 指出，各輪融資在上市後幾天內就出現超額認購的情況很常見，分配被拒絕或推遲到估值較高的後續輪次。

In a notable development, the tokenomic concept has re-emerged since the end of 2023, with Nage reporting that many companies and industry peers are exploring tokenomic designs for 2024. This shift marks a departure from the mid-2022 era, when most seed deals were financed with Simple Agreement for Future Equity (SAFE) or warrants.

一個顯著的進展是，代幣經濟概念自2023 年底以來重新出現，Nage 報告稱，許多公司和行業同行正在探索2024 年的代幣經濟設計。這一轉變標誌著與2022 年中期時代的背離，當時大多數種子交易透過未來股權簡單協議（SAFE）或認股權證進行融資。

"This new issuance phase is driven by valuations that have shifted violently," Nage explained.

「這個新的發行階段是由估值劇烈變化推動的，」內奇解釋道。

This dynamic has led venture capitalists to accept "lofty valuations in private rounds since they expect that the tokens will be traded publicly at a significant markup," according to Tang.

唐表示，這種動態導致創投家接受「私募輪中的高估值，因為他們預計代幣將以大幅加價公開交易」。

While SAFE rounds continue to occur, Schmidt indicates that the market has coalesced around a combination of priced equity rounds and token structures, providing investors with protection while granting teams flexibility.

儘管 SAFE 輪繼續進行，但施密特表示，市場已經圍繞定價股權輪和代幣結構的組合結合起來，為投資者提供保護，同時賦予團隊靈活性。

Clay Robbins, co-founder of accelerator and venture capital fund Colosseum, highlights the challenges faced by teams pursuing traditional business models. Crypto-native VCs, drawn by the potential for token trades and early liquidity, heavily favor this approach, while generalist investors remain somewhat skeptical.

加速器和創投基金 Colosseum 的共同創辦人 Clay Robbins 強調了追求傳統商業模式的團隊所面臨的挑戰。加密貨幣原生創投公司受到代幣交易和早期流動性潛力的吸引，非常青睞這種方法，而普通投資者仍然有些懷疑。

Despite the long-term performance of these tokens remaining uncertain, Naudts acknowledges the

儘管這些代幣的長期表現仍不確定，但 Naudts 承認