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Anoma 和 Namada 的联合创始人 Christopher Goes 表示,当今流行的代币分配模式已从根本上被打破。
Today’s crypto market is dominated by a particular token distribution model, known as the “low-float, high FDV” launch. This approach involves launching a project with a small fraction of its total supply in circulation, with the majority of the tokens locked up, typically set to unlock gradually over a period of one year. This low circulation is often designed to encourage a high fully-diluted valuation (FDV). According to research by CoinGecko, nearly a quarter of the industry's top tokens now have a low float. Some recent notable launches that have utilized this model include Starknet, Aptos, Arbitrum, Optimism, Celestia, and Worldcoin (where an astonishing 95.7% of supply remains locked at the time of this writing).
当今的加密货币市场由一种特殊的代币分配模式主导,即所谓的“低流通量、高 FDV”发行。这种方法涉及启动一个项目,其流通中的总供应量只有一小部分,大部分代币被锁定,通常会在一年内逐渐解锁。这种低流通量通常是为了鼓励高的完全稀释估值(FDV)。根据 CoinGecko 的研究,近四分之一的行业顶级代币现在的流通量较低。最近推出的一些著名的货币包括 Starknet、Aptos、Arbitrum、Optimism、Celestia 和 Worldcoin(在撰写本文时,95.7% 的供应量仍处于锁定状态)。
However, this model is fundamentally flawed. Restricting the movement of tokens distorts the market signal and misleads both actual and potential network participants who rely on that signal to make decisions. This “low-float, high FDV” approach results in a scenario where most of the upside potential of new launches is captured by private investors, leaving little to be available in the public markets. Ultimately, this pattern of launching tokens inflates short-term metrics at the cost of long-term sustainability and the public trust.
然而,这个模型有根本性的缺陷。限制代币的流动会扭曲市场信号,并误导依赖该信号做出决策的实际和潜在网络参与者。这种“低流通量、高 FDV”的方法导致新产品的大部分上行潜力被私人投资者占据,而在公开市场上几乎没有可用的。最终,这种发行代币的模式会夸大短期指标,而牺牲长期可持续性和公众信任。
The fallacy of crypto vesting
加密货币归属的谬误
The term “vesting” in crypto bears little resemblance to the actual functionality of vesting mechanisms in the traditional finance world, where vesting is used to align incentives and ensure stakeholder obligations. For instance, in traditional corporations (e.g., RSUs), vesting comes with specific performance expectations and the possibility of revoking further ownership stake if those expectations are not met. In contrast, vesting lockups in crypto networks have no such mechanism – instead, tokens are simply locked up for a set period of time before being unlocked.
加密货币中的“归属”一词与传统金融世界中归属机制的实际功能几乎没有相似之处,在传统金融世界中,归属用于调整激励措施并确保利益相关者的义务。例如,在传统公司(例如 RSU)中,归属伴随着特定的业绩预期,并且如果这些预期未得到满足,则可能会撤销进一步的所有权股份。相比之下,加密网络中的归属锁定没有这样的机制——相反,代币只是在解锁之前被锁定一段时间。
These types of lockups, which don’t deserve the name “vesting” at all, typically distort the market signal by giving the false impression of much higher demand than there actually is. If we understand price signals as the clearing point between the supply and demand for an asset, the value of those signals to the market depends on the freedom of both the supply and demand sides to express their preferences (e.g., sell if they want to sell, and buy if they want to buy). Lockups prevent one side of the market from expressing their preferences, thus degrading the overall signal quality. While this may provide some temporary benefit in market cap ranking or other metrics, it ultimately worsens the market quality because the price signals carry less information.
这些类型的锁定根本不值得称为“兑现”,它们通常会造成需求远高于实际情况的错误印象,从而扭曲市场信号。如果我们将价格信号理解为资产供需之间的清算点,那么这些信号对市场的价值取决于供需双方表达其偏好的自由度(例如,如果他们想出售,就出售) ,如果他们想买就买)。锁定会阻止市场的一方表达他们的偏好,从而降低整体信号质量。虽然这可能会为市值排名或其他指标带来一些暂时的好处,但最终会恶化市场质量,因为价格信号携带的信息较少。
Even worse, in practice, these lockups simply screw the public. Token holders who join a project after launch are disadvantaged by the gradual unlocks, which present them with an inaccurate price signal that does not reflect actual market sentiment. Sophisticated holders of locked tokens with access to non-public markets and information have an unfair advantage and often sell locked tokens off-market anyway. To get a sense of the true market signal, you have to analyze exactly who might want to sell but is unable to and speculate on what deals are taking place in back rooms. This analysis is too complex and time-intensive for most public market participants to undertake.
更糟糕的是,在实践中,这些禁闭只会让公众陷入困境。在项目启动后加入的代币持有者因逐步解锁而处于不利地位,这给他们带来了不准确的价格信号,无法反映实际的市场情绪。拥有非公开市场和信息的成熟锁定代币持有者拥有不公平的优势,并且经常在场外出售锁定代币。为了了解真实的市场信号,您必须准确分析谁可能想出售但无法出售,并推测幕后正在进行哪些交易。对于大多数公开市场参与者来说,这种分析过于复杂且耗时。
The inevitability of market pressure
市场压力不可避免
Lockups don’t prevent people from selling; they merely delay the inevitable. Vesting terms eventually expire, and those who want to sell eventually do so, putting continual downward pressure on the market, often leading to an artificial “slow bleed” in market capitalization. Personally, I would be hesitant to hold an asset or participate in a network where many holders might want to exit but are unable to. It’s also a problem for participants like validators, who require accurate price signals to sustainably predict income and operational costs.
禁售并不会阻止人们出售;而是会阻止人们出售。他们只是推迟了不可避免的事情。行权期限最终会到期,那些想要出售的人最终会这样做,给市场带来持续的下行压力,往往会导致市值人为“缓慢流失”。就我个人而言,我会犹豫是否持有一项资产或参与一个许多持有者可能想退出但无法退出的网络。对于像验证者这样的参与者来说,这也是一个问题,他们需要准确的价格信号来可持续地预测收入和运营成本。
If one goal of the crypto space is to produce meaningful products that provide real, long-term value, practices designed to artificially inflate short-term metrics will not help get us there. To accurately evaluate the potential of any particular project, you need the ability to evaluate whether people are actually committed to that project. You can’t do that if you don’t know whether people hold tokens because they truly believe in the project or because they’re prohibited from selling.
如果加密货币领域的目标之一是生产能够提供真正的长期价值的有意义的产品,那么旨在人为夸大短期指标的做法将无助于我们实现这一目标。为了准确评估任何特定项目的潜力,您需要能够评估人们是否真正致力于该项目。如果您不知道人们持有代币是因为他们真正相信该项目还是因为他们被禁止出售,那么您就无法做到这一点。
This criticism of the low-float, FDV orthodoxy has been accompanied by calls for new, “fair launch” approaches to token distribution. However, many of these proposals merely advocate for a higher percentage of circulating supply at launch and do not call into question the legitimacy of “vesting” lockups per se.
对低流通量、FDV 正统观念的批评伴随着对新的“公平发行”代币分配方法的呼吁。然而,其中许多提案只是主张在启动时提高流通供应量的比例,并没有质疑“归属”锁定本身的合法性。
This doesn’t go far enough. Any form of artificial manipulation of market signals is still artificial manipulation of market signals. We need to break crypto’s vesting Overton window with a variety of new experiments.
这还不够。任何形式的人为操纵市场信号仍然是人为操纵市场信号。我们需要通过各种新实验来打破加密货币的归属奥弗顿窗口。
The free-market launch
自由市场的启动
This approach, which we’ve been calling the “free-market launch,” has the great advantage that it allows everyone to freely express their preferences. If you want to sell, you can sell. If you want to buy, you can buy. Best of all
这种我们称之为“自由市场启动”的方法有一个巨大的优势,那就是它允许每个人自由表达自己的偏好。如果你想卖,你可以卖。如果你想买,就可以买。最棒的是
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