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Anoma 和 Namada 的共同創辦人 Christopher Goes 表示,當今流行的代幣分配模式已從根本上被打破。
Today’s crypto market is dominated by a particular token distribution model, known as the “low-float, high FDV” launch. This approach involves launching a project with a small fraction of its total supply in circulation, with the majority of the tokens locked up, typically set to unlock gradually over a period of one year. This low circulation is often designed to encourage a high fully-diluted valuation (FDV). According to research by CoinGecko, nearly a quarter of the industry's top tokens now have a low float. Some recent notable launches that have utilized this model include Starknet, Aptos, Arbitrum, Optimism, Celestia, and Worldcoin (where an astonishing 95.7% of supply remains locked at the time of this writing).
當今的加密貨幣市場由一種特殊的代幣分配模式主導,即所謂的「低流通量、高 FDV」發行。這種方法涉及啟動一個項目,其流通中的總供應量只有一小部分,大部分代幣被鎖定,通常在一年內逐漸解鎖。這種低流通量通常是為了鼓勵高的完全稀釋估值(FDV)。根據 CoinGecko 的研究,近四分之一的行業頂級代幣現在的流通量較低。最近推出的一些著名的貨幣包括 Starknet、Aptos、Arbitrum、Optimism、Celestia 和 Worldcoin(在撰寫本文時,95.7% 的供應量仍處於鎖定狀態)。
However, this model is fundamentally flawed. Restricting the movement of tokens distorts the market signal and misleads both actual and potential network participants who rely on that signal to make decisions. This “low-float, high FDV” approach results in a scenario where most of the upside potential of new launches is captured by private investors, leaving little to be available in the public markets. Ultimately, this pattern of launching tokens inflates short-term metrics at the cost of long-term sustainability and the public trust.
然而,這個模型有根本性的缺陷。限制代幣的流動會扭曲市場訊號,並誤導依賴該訊號做出決策的實際和潛在網路參與者。這種「低流通量、高 FDV」的方法導致新產品的大部分上行潛力被私人投資者佔據,而在公開市場上幾乎沒有可用的。最終,這種發行代幣的模式會誇大短期指標,而犧牲長期永續性和公眾信任。
The fallacy of crypto vesting
加密貨幣歸屬的謬誤
The term “vesting” in crypto bears little resemblance to the actual functionality of vesting mechanisms in the traditional finance world, where vesting is used to align incentives and ensure stakeholder obligations. For instance, in traditional corporations (e.g., RSUs), vesting comes with specific performance expectations and the possibility of revoking further ownership stake if those expectations are not met. In contrast, vesting lockups in crypto networks have no such mechanism – instead, tokens are simply locked up for a set period of time before being unlocked.
加密貨幣中的「歸屬」一詞與傳統金融世界中歸屬機制的實際功能幾乎沒有相似之處,在傳統金融世界中,歸屬用於調整激勵措施並確保利益相關者的義務。例如,在傳統公司(例如 RSU)中,歸屬伴隨著特定的業績預期,如果這些預期未得到滿足,則可能會撤銷進一步的所有權股份。相比之下,加密網路中的歸屬鎖定沒有這樣的機制——相反,代幣只是在解鎖之前被鎖定一段時間。
These types of lockups, which don’t deserve the name “vesting” at all, typically distort the market signal by giving the false impression of much higher demand than there actually is. If we understand price signals as the clearing point between the supply and demand for an asset, the value of those signals to the market depends on the freedom of both the supply and demand sides to express their preferences (e.g., sell if they want to sell, and buy if they want to buy). Lockups prevent one side of the market from expressing their preferences, thus degrading the overall signal quality. While this may provide some temporary benefit in market cap ranking or other metrics, it ultimately worsens the market quality because the price signals carry less information.
這些類型的鎖定根本不值得稱為“兌現”,它們通常會造成需求遠高於實際情況的錯誤印象,從而扭曲市場訊號。如果我們將價格訊號理解為資產供需之間的清算點,那麼這些訊號對市場的價值取決於供需雙方表達其偏好的自由度(例如,如果他們想出售,就出售) ,如果他們想買就買)。鎖定會阻止市場的一方表達他們的偏好,從而降低整體訊號品質。雖然這可能會為市值排名或其他指標帶來一些暫時的好處,但最終會惡化市場質量,因為價格訊號攜帶的資訊較少。
Even worse, in practice, these lockups simply screw the public. Token holders who join a project after launch are disadvantaged by the gradual unlocks, which present them with an inaccurate price signal that does not reflect actual market sentiment. Sophisticated holders of locked tokens with access to non-public markets and information have an unfair advantage and often sell locked tokens off-market anyway. To get a sense of the true market signal, you have to analyze exactly who might want to sell but is unable to and speculate on what deals are taking place in back rooms. This analysis is too complex and time-intensive for most public market participants to undertake.
更糟的是,在實踐中,這些禁閉只會讓大眾陷入困境。在專案啟動後加入的代幣持有者因逐步解鎖而處於不利地位,這給他們帶來了不準確的價格訊號,無法反映實際的市場情緒。擁有非公開市場和資訊的成熟鎖定代幣持有者擁有不公平的優勢,並且經常在場外出售鎖定代幣。為了了解真實的市場訊號,您必須準確分析誰可能想出售但無法出售,並推測幕後正在進行哪些交易。對於大多數公開市場參與者來說,這種分析過於複雜且耗時。
The inevitability of market pressure
市場壓力不可避免
Lockups don’t prevent people from selling; they merely delay the inevitable. Vesting terms eventually expire, and those who want to sell eventually do so, putting continual downward pressure on the market, often leading to an artificial “slow bleed” in market capitalization. Personally, I would be hesitant to hold an asset or participate in a network where many holders might want to exit but are unable to. It’s also a problem for participants like validators, who require accurate price signals to sustainably predict income and operational costs.
禁售並不會阻止人們出售;而是會阻止人們出售。他們只是推遲了不可避免的事情。行權期限最終會到期,那些想要出售的人最終會這樣做,給市場帶來持續的下行壓力,往往會導致市值人為「緩慢流失」。就我個人而言,我會猶豫是否持有一項資產或參與一個許多持有者可能想退出但無法退出的網路。對於像驗證者這樣的參與者來說,這也是一個問題,他們需要準確的價格訊號來永續預測收入和營運成本。
If one goal of the crypto space is to produce meaningful products that provide real, long-term value, practices designed to artificially inflate short-term metrics will not help get us there. To accurately evaluate the potential of any particular project, you need the ability to evaluate whether people are actually committed to that project. You can’t do that if you don’t know whether people hold tokens because they truly believe in the project or because they’re prohibited from selling.
如果加密貨幣領域的目標之一是生產能夠提供真正的長期價值的有意義的產品,那麼旨在人為誇大短期指標的做法將無助於我們實現這一目標。為了準確評估任何特定項目的潛力,您需要能夠評估人們是否真正致力於該專案。如果您不知道人們持有代幣是因為他們真正相信該項目還是因為他們被禁止出售,那麼您就無法做到這一點。
This criticism of the low-float, FDV orthodoxy has been accompanied by calls for new, “fair launch” approaches to token distribution. However, many of these proposals merely advocate for a higher percentage of circulating supply at launch and do not call into question the legitimacy of “vesting” lockups per se.
對低流通量、FDV 正統觀念的批評伴隨著對新的「公平發行」代幣分配方法的呼籲。然而,其中許多提案只是主張在啟動時提高流通供應量的比例,並沒有質疑「歸屬」鎖定本身的合法性。
This doesn’t go far enough. Any form of artificial manipulation of market signals is still artificial manipulation of market signals. We need to break crypto’s vesting Overton window with a variety of new experiments.
這還不夠。任何形式的人為操縱市場訊號仍然是人為操縱市場訊號。我們需要透過各種新實驗來打破加密貨幣的歸屬奧弗頓窗口。
The free-market launch
自由市場的啟動
This approach, which we’ve been calling the “free-market launch,” has the great advantage that it allows everyone to freely express their preferences. If you want to sell, you can sell. If you want to buy, you can buy. Best of all
這種我們稱之為「自由市場啟動」的方法有一個巨大的優勢,那就是它允許每個人自由表達自己的偏好。如果你想賣,你可以賣。如果你想買,就可以買。最棒的是
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