加密货币牛市会永远回归吗？

Grayscale 最近的报告表明，在基本面和技术指标的支撑下，加密货币市场正处于牛市之中。这次牛市的前兆包括比特币主导地位的飙升、稳定币的积极流入以及交易所的比特币余额减少。虽然市场目前处于牛市的“中期”或“第五局”，但未实现净损益率和疲弱的零售情绪等指标表明仍有增长空间。不过，建议投资者监控现货比特币 ETF 流入和更广泛的宏观经济因素，以了解潜在的市场变化。

Is the Crypto Bull Run Finally Here?

加密货币牛市终于来了吗？

According to Grayscale, a recent report suggests that the crypto market is "presently in the middle of the bull run," fueled by a trifecta of fundamental and technical factors.

根据 Grayscale 的说法，最近的一份报告表明，在基本面和技术因素的推动下，加密货币市场“目前正处于牛市中期”。

Precursors to the Crypto Bull Run

加密货币牛市的前兆

Grayscale analysts claim that Bitcoin's dominance acts as an early indicator for the broader crypto market. As investors seek higher returns, a surge in Bitcoin's price often precedes a rally in altcoins. In the 2021-2022 bull run, Bitcoin's gains were swiftly followed by a boom in altcoin valuations.

灰度分析师声称，比特币的主导地位是更广泛的加密市场的早期指标。随着投资者寻求更高的回报，比特币价格的飙升往往先于山寨币的上涨。在 2021-2022 年牛市中，比特币上涨之后，山寨币估值迅速飙升。

This time around, Grayscale identifies three unique catalysts:

这一次，灰度确定了三种独特的催化剂：

• Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows: Since their approval in January 2024, capital flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have consistently exceeded Bitcoin issuance, putting upward pressure on prices.
• Stablecoin inflows: Growing stablecoin liquidity indicates ample capital for trading, fueling the momentum of bull markets.
• Decreasing BTC balance on exchanges: The transfer of Bitcoin from exchanges to cold wallets for long-term storage suggests a supply squeeze, driven in part by spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Is the Bull Market Here to Stay?

现货比特币 ETF 流入：自 2024 年 1 月获批以来，流入现货比特币 ETF 的资金持续超过比特币发行量，给价格带来上行压力。 稳定币流入：稳定币流动性增长表明交易资金充足，助长牛市势头。交易所的 BTC 余额：比特币从交易所转移到冷钱包进行长期存储表明供应紧张，部分原因是现货比特币 ETF 造成的。牛市会持续下去吗？

Grayscale uses the term "mid-phase" or "fifth inning" to describe the current stage of the bull run. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio, which measures profit/loss as a percentage of market cap, has risen alongside Bitcoin's price, indicating that investors are holding onto their coins. While NUPL is approaching 60%, historical peaks have occurred at ratios above 70%, suggesting a potential cycle high.

灰度使用术语“中期”或“第五局”来描述牛市的当前阶段。净未实现利润/损失（NUPL）比率（衡量利润/损失占市值的百分比）随着比特币价格的上涨而上升，表明投资者正在持有他们的硬币。虽然 NUPL 接近 60%，但历史峰值已出现在 70% 以上的比率，这表明潜在的周期高点。

Retail Investors: In or Out?

散户投资者：进还是出？

Bull markets are known for their euphoria, FOMO, and retail participation. However, data from Satiment and Google Trends reveals that retail investor interest is subdued compared to the 2021 bull market. This raises questions about their participation in the current cycle.

牛市以其兴奋、FOMO 和散户参与而闻名。然而，Satiment 和 Google Trends 的数据显示，与 2021 年牛市相比，散户投资者的兴趣有所减弱。这引发了人们对他们参与当前周期的质疑。

Yet, data from Alternative shows that market sentiments are similar to those seen at the peak of the 2021 bull market. This could signal the return of retail investors, driven by greed and FOMO, which could further boost prices.

然而，Alternative 的数据显示，市场情绪与 2021 年牛市顶峰时的情况相似。这可能标志着散户投资者在贪婪和 FOMO 的驱动下回归，这可能会进一步推高价格。

Grayscale's Conclusion

灰度的结论

Based on these technical and fundamental factors, Grayscale believes that "the bull run will persist." However, investors are advised to monitor spot Bitcoin ETF flows and macroeconomic factors for any signs of market shifts.

基于这些技术和基本面因素，灰度认为“牛市将会持续”。不过，建议投资者监控现货比特币 ETF 流量和宏观经济因素，以发现任何市场变化的迹象。

Cautious Optimism

谨慎乐观

Grayscale acknowledges that while progress has been made, there is still room for the bull run to continue. However, they caution investors to exercise caution and monitor the market closely for any potential changes.

灰度承认，虽然已经取得了进展，但牛市仍有继续的空间。然而，他们警告投资者要谨慎行事，并密切关注市场是否有任何潜在的变化。