加密貨幣牛市會永遠回歸嗎？

Grayscale 最近的報告表明，在基本面和技術指標的支撐下，加密貨幣市場正處於牛市之中。這次牛市的前兆包括比特幣主導地位的飆升、穩定幣的積極流入以及交易所的比特幣餘額減少。雖然市場目前處於牛市的“中期”或“第五局”，但未實現淨損益率和疲軟的零售情緒等指標表明仍有成長空間。不過，建議投資者監控現貨比特幣 ETF 流入和更廣泛的宏觀經濟因素，以了解潛在的市場變化。

Is the Crypto Bull Run Finally Here?

加密貨幣牛市終於來了嗎？

According to Grayscale, a recent report suggests that the crypto market is "presently in the middle of the bull run," fueled by a trifecta of fundamental and technical factors.

根據 Grayscale 的說法，最近的一份報告表明，在基本面和技術因素的推動下，加密貨幣市場「目前正處於牛市中期」。

Precursors to the Crypto Bull Run

加密貨幣牛市的前兆

Grayscale analysts claim that Bitcoin's dominance acts as an early indicator for the broader crypto market. As investors seek higher returns, a surge in Bitcoin's price often precedes a rally in altcoins. In the 2021-2022 bull run, Bitcoin's gains were swiftly followed by a boom in altcoin valuations.

灰階分析師聲稱，比特幣的主導地位是更廣泛的加密市場的早期指標。隨著投資者尋求更高的回報，比特幣價格的飆升往往先於山寨幣的上漲。在 2021-2022 年多頭市場中，比特幣上漲之後，山寨幣估值迅速飆升。

This time around, Grayscale identifies three unique catalysts:

這次，灰度確定了三種獨特的催化劑：

• Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows: Since their approval in January 2024, capital flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have consistently exceeded Bitcoin issuance, putting upward pressure on prices.
• Stablecoin inflows: Growing stablecoin liquidity indicates ample capital for trading, fueling the momentum of bull markets.
• Decreasing BTC balance on exchanges: The transfer of Bitcoin from exchanges to cold wallets for long-term storage suggests a supply squeeze, driven in part by spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Is the Bull Market Here to Stay?

現貨比特幣 ETF 流入：自2024 年1 月獲批以來，流入現貨比特幣ETF 的資金持續超過比特幣發行量，給價格帶來上行壓力。穩定幣流入：穩定幣流動性成長顯示交易資金充足，助長牛市勢頭。交易所的 BTC 餘額：比特幣從交易所轉移到冷錢包進行長期存儲表明供應緊張，部分原因是現貨比特幣 ETF 造成的。牛市會持續下去嗎？

Grayscale uses the term "mid-phase" or "fifth inning" to describe the current stage of the bull run. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio, which measures profit/loss as a percentage of market cap, has risen alongside Bitcoin's price, indicating that investors are holding onto their coins. While NUPL is approaching 60%, historical peaks have occurred at ratios above 70%, suggesting a potential cycle high.

灰度使用術語“中期”或“第五局”來描述牛市的當前階段。淨未實現利潤/損失（NUPL）比率（衡量利潤/損失佔市值的百分比）隨著比特幣價格的上漲而上升，表明投資者正在持有他們的硬幣。雖然 NUPL 接近 60%，但歷史高峰已出現在 70% 以上的比率，這表明潛在的周期高點。

Retail Investors: In or Out?

散戶：進還是出？

Bull markets are known for their euphoria, FOMO, and retail participation. However, data from Satiment and Google Trends reveals that retail investor interest is subdued compared to the 2021 bull market. This raises questions about their participation in the current cycle.

牛市以其興奮、FOMO 和散戶參與而聞名。然而，Satiment 和 Google Trends 的數據顯示，與 2021 年多頭相比，散戶投資者的興趣減弱。這引發了人們對他們參與當前週期的質疑。

Yet, data from Alternative shows that market sentiments are similar to those seen at the peak of the 2021 bull market. This could signal the return of retail investors, driven by greed and FOMO, which could further boost prices.

然而，Alternative 的數據顯示，市場情緒與 2021 年牛市高峰時的情況相似。這可能標誌著散戶投資者在貪婪和 FOMO 的驅動下回歸，這可能會進一步推高價格。

Grayscale's Conclusion

灰階的結論

Based on these technical and fundamental factors, Grayscale believes that "the bull run will persist." However, investors are advised to monitor spot Bitcoin ETF flows and macroeconomic factors for any signs of market shifts.

基於這些技術和基本面因素，灰階認為「多頭市場將會持續」。不過，建議投資者監控現貨比特幣 ETF 流量和宏觀經濟因素，以發現任何市場變化的跡象。

Cautious Optimism

謹慎樂觀

Grayscale acknowledges that while progress has been made, there is still room for the bull run to continue. However, they caution investors to exercise caution and monitor the market closely for any potential changes.

灰度承認，雖然已經取得了進展，但多頭市場仍有持續的空間。然而，他們警告投資者要謹慎行事，並密切注意市場是否有任何潛在的變化。