2024年：链上发展年

2024年可能是自DeFi Summer以来链上发展最重要的一年，链上叙事驱动的投资机会不断涌现。

This article provides predictions for on-chain trading and investment in 2024, focusing on specific on-chain tracks and narratives. It serves as the author's subjective analysis and should not be taken as financial advice, but rather as a starting point for further contemplation.

本文对 2024 年链上交易和投资进行预测，重点关注具体的链上轨迹和叙述。它是作者的主观分析，不应被视为财务建议，而应作为进一步思考的起点。

1. DEX/CEX monthly Vol ratio to hit a record high, exceeding 20% for the first time

1、DEX/CEX月度成交量比率创历史新高，首次突破20%

According to The Block data, DEX trading volume will reach an all-time high in December 2024, exceeding $320 billion, indicating a year-over-year growth of over 200%. The DEX/CEX ratio will increase from 9.55% in December 2023 to 11.64% in December 2024, and the monthly trading volume ratio of DEX/CEX will peak at 13.86%.

据 The Block 数据显示，DEX 交易量将在 2024 年 12 月创下历史新高，超过 3200 亿美元，同比增长超过 200%。 DEX/CEX占比将从2023年12月的9.55%提升至2024年12月的11.64%，DEX/CEX月交易量占比将达到峰值13.86%。

Several factors contribute to this trend, including the continuous optimization of Web3 wallets and other on-chain tools, which are largely dominated by CEXs, and the加快用户从 CEXs 迁移至 DEXs 的步伐。 Meme 板块的火热叙事和财富效应也将起到重要作用。

2. AI Agents/AI Meme total market cap to surpass peak NFTs, with at least one AI Agents token reaching a market cap of over $10 billion

2. AI Agents/AI Meme 总市值将超越 NFT 峰值，至少一种 AI Agents 代币市值超过 100 亿美元

AI Agents 叙事与代币化的结合，是 2024 年下半年 crypto 市场中增长最快的叙事，催生出类型各异的 AI Agents 如雨后春笋般涌现。

从最初的聊天机器人 Truth Terminal (GOAT) 打开 AI Agents 的潘多拉魔盒，到 a16z 旗下 Virutal Impact Fund 推出 Virtuals Protocol，再到 ai16z DAO 和 Shaw 团队为大语言模型打造的一键部署 AI Agents 及其代币的框架——Eliza，所有这些都发生在短短几个月的时间内。

从最初的聊天机器人 Truth Terminal (GOAT) 打开 AI Agents 的潘多拉魔盒，到 a16z 旗下 Virutal Impact Fund 推出 Virtuals Protocol，再到 ai16z DAO 和 Shaw 团队为大语言模型打造的一键部署 AI Agents 及其代币的框架——Eliza，所有这些都发生在短短几个月的时间内。

目前，正在开发和运行的框架至少有 a16z - Eliza、Virtuals Protocol - Game Framework、arc Framework、Zerebro - Zerepy、Dolion Framework 等。其中，a16z - Eliza 和 Virtuals Protocol - Game Framework 已经形成较强的生态护城河，衍生出类型各异的 AI Agents 子代币快速进入市场。

CoinGecko 数据显示，目前 AI Agents 相关代币的总市值已经达到 120 亿美元，其中 Virtuals Protocol 的原生交易对代币 VIRTUAL，类似于 Solana 公链上的 SOL，连同 AIXBT、GAME、LUNA 等子代币共同撑起整个生态，带动 VIRTUAL 母代币的市值为 AI Agents 相关代币中最高，达到 35 亿美元。

3. Expect 3-5 vertical tracks based on Pump Fun to emerge

3.预计将出现3-5条基于Pump Fun的垂直轨道

Pump Fun has become one of the most profitable applications in Crypto this year as a Launchpad for rapidly deploying tokens at extremely low costs on the Solana network, with thousands of Memecoins launching daily. With the rise of Pump Fun, other blockchain networks have begun to follow suit, launching similar Memecoin issuance and trading platforms, such as SunPump on the Tron network, Uptos on the Aptos network, and Clanker based on Farcaster on the Base network.

Pump Fun 已成为今年加密领域最赚钱的应用程序之一，作为在 Solana 网络上以极低的成本快速部署代币的启动平台，每天都会发布数千个 Memecoin。随着 Pump Fun 的兴起，其他区块链网络也开始效仿，推出类似的 Memecoin 发行和交易平台，例如 Tron 网络上的 SunPump、Aptos 网络上的 Uptos 以及 Base 网络上基于 Farcaster 的 Clanker。

Additionally, the Memecoin track is gradually expanding, with the demand for segmentation becoming increasingly strong, evolving into vertical Pump Fun launch platforms, such as vvaifu focused on AI Agents and Pump Science focused on DeSci. AI Agents have already become a multi-billion dollar track, and DeSci is also showing potential with Binance's focus on DeSci and the listing of the representative protocol Bio Protocol. Essentially, this reflects the demand for decentralized token issuance and rapid asset issuance based on different narratives and imaginations, and it is expected that more vertical launch platforms based on Pump Fun will evolve into further segmented tracks in the future.

此外，Memecoin赛道逐渐扩大，细分需求日益强烈，演变成垂直的Pump Fun推出平台，例如专注于AI Agents的vvaifu和专注于DeSci的Pump Science。 AI Agents 已经成为一个价值数十亿美元的赛道，随着币安对 DeSci 的关注以及代表性协议 Bio Protocol 的上市，DeSci 也展现出了潜力。本质上，这反映了基于不同叙事和想象的去中心化代币发行和快速资产发行的需求，预计未来更多基于Pump Fun的垂直发行平台将演变成进一步细分的赛道。

4. At least 5 Base ecosystem native tokens will be listed on Binance spot

4. 至少 5 个 Base 生态系统原生代币将在 Binance 现货上架

As a bellwether, Binance has listed perpetual contract trading for DEGEN, AERO, VIRTUAL, and AIXBT, but has yet to list any native spot of the Base ecosystem. In terms of traffic, trading activity, and wealth effect, Base is currently the only Ethereum L2 network that can compete with Solana; unlike Solana, the ecological effect of Base is more concentrated, represented by the Virtuals system and Farcaster system, with the Virtuals system ecological market cap nearing $5 billion, leading in the Crypto x AI Agents space.

作为领头羊，币安已经上线了 DEGEN、AERO、VIRTUAL 和 AIXBT 的永续合约交易，但尚未上线 Base 生态的任何原生合约。从流量、交易活跃度、财富效应来看，Base是目前唯一可以与Solana竞争的以太坊L2网络；与Solana不同的是，Base的生态效应更加集中，以Virtuals系统和Farcaster系统为代表，Virtuals系统生态市值接近50亿美元，在Crypto x AI Agents领域处于领先地位。

The Base ecosystem may be the track with the highest odds for betting on listings by top exchanges, and it is only a matter of time before the first Base ecosystem spot is listed on Binance.

Base生态可能是头部交易所押注上币赔率最高的赛道，第一个Base生态位在币安上市只是时间问题。

As a public chain under the compliant exchange Coinbase, it relies on Coinbase Wallet to open up the fiat channel from Base - USDC to bank accounts. With the formal establishment of

作为合规交易所Coinbase旗下的公链，依托Coinbase Wallet打通Base-USDC到银行账户的法币通道。随着正式成立