2024年：鏈上發展年

2024年可能是自DeFi Summer以來鏈上發展最重要的一年，鏈上敘事驅動的投資機會不斷出現。

This article provides predictions for on-chain trading and investment in 2024, focusing on specific on-chain tracks and narratives. It serves as the author's subjective analysis and should not be taken as financial advice, but rather as a starting point for further contemplation.

本文對 2024 年鏈上交易和投資進行預測，重點在於具體的鏈上軌跡和敘述。它是作者的主觀分析，不應被視為財務建議，而應作為進一步思考的起點。

1. DEX/CEX monthly Vol ratio to hit a record high, exceeding 20% for the first time

1.DEX/CEX月成交量比率創歷史新高，首次突破20%

According to The Block data, DEX trading volume will reach an all-time high in December 2024, exceeding $320 billion, indicating a year-over-year growth of over 200%. The DEX/CEX ratio will increase from 9.55% in December 2023 to 11.64% in December 2024, and the monthly trading volume ratio of DEX/CEX will peak at 13.86%.

根據 The Block 數據顯示，DEX 交易量將在 2024 年 12 月創下歷史新高，超過 3,200 億美元，年成長超過 200%。 DEX/CEX佔比將從2023年12月的9.55%提升至2024年12月的11.64%，DEX/CEX月交易量佔比將達到高峰13.86%。

Several factors contribute to this trend, including the continuous optimization of Web3 wallets and other on-chain tools, which are largely dominated by CEXs, and the加快用户从 CEXs 迁移至 DEXs 的步伐。 Meme 板块的火热叙事和财富效应也将起到重要作用。

Several factors contribute to this trend, including the continuous optimization of Web3 wallets and other on-chain tools, which are largely dominated by CEXs, and the加快用戶從CEXs 遷移至DEXs 的步伐。 Meme 板塊的火熱敘事和財富效應也將扮演重要角色。

2. AI Agents/AI Meme total market cap to surpass peak NFTs, with at least one AI Agents token reaching a market cap of over $10 billion

2. AI Agents/AI Meme 總市值將超越 NFT 峰值，至少一種 AI Agents 代幣市值超過 100 億美元

AI Agents 叙事与代币化的结合，是 2024 年下半年 crypto 市场中增长最快的叙事，催生出类型各异的 AI Agents 如雨后春笋般涌现。

AI Agents 敘事與代幣化的結合，是2024 年下半年crypto 市場中成長最快的敘事，催生出類型各異的AI Agents 如雨後春筍般湧現。

从最初的聊天机器人 Truth Terminal (GOAT) 打开 AI Agents 的潘多拉魔盒，到 a16z 旗下 Virutal Impact Fund 推出 Virtuals Protocol，再到 ai16z DAO 和 Shaw 团队为大语言模型打造的一键部署 AI Agents 及其代币的框架——Eliza，所有这些都发生在短短几个月的时间内。

從最初的聊天機器人Truth Terminal (GOAT) 打開AI Agents 的潘朵拉魔盒，到a16z 旗下Virutal Impact Fund 推出Virtuals Protocol，再到ai16z DAO 和Shaw 團隊為大語言模型打造的一鍵部署AI Agents 及其代幣AI Agents 及其代幣的框架——Eliza，所有這些都發生在短短幾個月的時間內。

目前，正在开发和运行的框架至少有 a16z - Eliza、Virtuals Protocol - Game Framework、arc Framework、Zerebro - Zerepy、Dolion Framework 等。其中，a16z - Eliza 和 Virtuals Protocol - Game Framework 已经形成较强的生态护城河，衍生出类型各异的 AI Agents 子代币快速进入市场。

目前，正在開發和運行的框架至少有a16z - Eliza、Virtuals Protocol - Game Framework、arc Framework、Zerebro - Zerepy、Dolion Framework 等。其中，a16z - Eliza 和Virtuals Protocol - Game Framework 已經形成較強的生態護城河，衍生出種類各異的AI Agents 子代幣快速進入市場。

CoinGecko 数据显示，目前 AI Agents 相关代币的总市值已经达到 120 亿美元，其中 Virtuals Protocol 的原生交易对代币 VIRTUAL，类似于 Solana 公链上的 SOL，连同 AIXBT、GAME、LUNA 等子代币共同撑起整个生态，带动 VIRTUAL 母代币的市值为 AI Agents 相关代币中最高，达到 35 亿美元。

CoinGecko 數據顯示，目前AI Agents 相關代幣的總市值已達120 億美元，其中Virtuals Protocol 的原生交易對代幣VIRTUAL，類似於Solana 公鏈上的SOL，連同AIXBT、GAME、LUNA 等子代幣共同撐起整個生態，帶動VIRTUAL 母代幣的市值為AI Agents 相關代幣中最高，達35 億美元。

3. Expect 3-5 vertical tracks based on Pump Fun to emerge

3.預計將出現3-5條基於Pump Fun的垂直軌道

Pump Fun has become one of the most profitable applications in Crypto this year as a Launchpad for rapidly deploying tokens at extremely low costs on the Solana network, with thousands of Memecoins launching daily. With the rise of Pump Fun, other blockchain networks have begun to follow suit, launching similar Memecoin issuance and trading platforms, such as SunPump on the Tron network, Uptos on the Aptos network, and Clanker based on Farcaster on the Base network.

Pump Fun 已成為今年加密領域最賺錢的應用程式之一，作為在 Solana 網路上以極低的成本快速部署代幣的啟動平台，每天都會發布數千個 Memecoin。隨著 Pump Fun 的興起，其他區塊鏈網路也開始效仿，推出類似的 Memecoin 發行和交易平台，例如 Tron 網路上的 SunPump、Aptos 網路上的 Uptos 以及 Base 網路上基於 Farcaster 的 Clanker。

Additionally, the Memecoin track is gradually expanding, with the demand for segmentation becoming increasingly strong, evolving into vertical Pump Fun launch platforms, such as vvaifu focused on AI Agents and Pump Science focused on DeSci. AI Agents have already become a multi-billion dollar track, and DeSci is also showing potential with Binance's focus on DeSci and the listing of the representative protocol Bio Protocol. Essentially, this reflects the demand for decentralized token issuance and rapid asset issuance based on different narratives and imaginations, and it is expected that more vertical launch platforms based on Pump Fun will evolve into further segmented tracks in the future.

此外，Memecoin賽道逐漸擴大，細分需求日益強烈，演變成垂直的Pump Fun推出平台，例如專注於AI Agents的vvaifu和專注於DeSci的Pump Science。 AI Agents 已經成為一個價值數十億美元的賽道，隨著幣安對 DeSci 的關注以及代表性協議 Bio Protocol 的上市，DeSci 也展現了潛力。本質上，這反映了基於​​不同敘事和想像的去中心化代幣發行和快速資產發行的需求，預計未來更多基於Pump Fun的垂直發行平台將演變成進一步細分的賽道。

4. At least 5 Base ecosystem native tokens will be listed on Binance spot

4. 至少 5 個 Base 生態系統原生代幣將在 Binance 現貨上架

As a bellwether, Binance has listed perpetual contract trading for DEGEN, AERO, VIRTUAL, and AIXBT, but has yet to list any native spot of the Base ecosystem. In terms of traffic, trading activity, and wealth effect, Base is currently the only Ethereum L2 network that can compete with Solana; unlike Solana, the ecological effect of Base is more concentrated, represented by the Virtuals system and Farcaster system, with the Virtuals system ecological market cap nearing $5 billion, leading in the Crypto x AI Agents space.

作為領頭羊，幣安已經上線了 DEGEN、AERO、VIRTUAL 和 AIXBT 的永續合約交易，但尚未上線 Base 生態的任何原生合約。從流量、交易活躍度、財富效應來看，Base是目前唯一可以與Solana競爭的以太坊L2網路；與Solana不同的是，Base的生態效應更加集中，以Virtuals系統和Farcaster系統為代表，Virtuals系統生態市值接近50億美元，在Crypto x AI Agents領域處於領先地位。

The Base ecosystem may be the track with the highest odds for betting on listings by top exchanges, and it is only a matter of time before the first Base ecosystem spot is listed on Binance.

Base生態可能是頭交易所押注上幣賠率最高的賽道，第一個Base生態位在幣安上市只是時間問題。

As a public chain under the compliant exchange Coinbase, it relies on Coinbase Wallet to open up the fiat channel from Base - USDC to bank accounts. With the formal establishment of

作為合規交易所Coinbase旗下的公鏈，依托Coinbase Wallet打通Base-USDC到銀行帳戶的法幣通道。隨著正式成立