2024: The Year of On-Chain Development

2024 may be the most important year for on-chain development since DeFi Summer, with narrative-driven investment opportunities emerging continuously on-chain.

This article provides predictions for on-chain trading and investment in 2024, focusing on specific on-chain tracks and narratives. It serves as the author's subjective analysis and should not be taken as financial advice, but rather as a starting point for further contemplation.

1. DEX/CEX monthly Vol ratio to hit a record high, exceeding 20% for the first time

According to The Block data, DEX trading volume will reach an all-time high in December 2024, exceeding $320 billion, indicating a year-over-year growth of over 200%. The DEX/CEX ratio will increase from 9.55% in December 2023 to 11.64% in December 2024, and the monthly trading volume ratio of DEX/CEX will peak at 13.86%.

Several factors contribute to this trend, including the continuous optimization of Web3 wallets and other on-chain tools, which are largely dominated by CEXs, and the加快用户从 CEXs 迁移至 DEXs 的步伐。 Meme 板块的火热叙事和财富效应也将起到重要作用。

2. AI Agents/AI Meme total market cap to surpass peak NFTs, with at least one AI Agents token reaching a market cap of over $10 billion

AI Agents 叙事与代币化的结合，是 2024 年下半年 crypto 市场中增长最快的叙事，催生出类型各异的 AI Agents 如雨后春笋般涌现。

从最初的聊天机器人 Truth Terminal (GOAT) 打开 AI Agents 的潘多拉魔盒，到 a16z 旗下 Virutal Impact Fund 推出 Virtuals Protocol，再到 ai16z DAO 和 Shaw 团队为大语言模型打造的一键部署 AI Agents 及其代币的框架——Eliza，所有这些都发生在短短几个月的时间内。

目前，正在开发和运行的框架至少有 a16z - Eliza、Virtuals Protocol - Game Framework、arc Framework、Zerebro - Zerepy、Dolion Framework 等。其中，a16z - Eliza 和 Virtuals Protocol - Game Framework 已经形成较强的生态护城河，衍生出类型各异的 AI Agents 子代币快速进入市场。

CoinGecko 数据显示，目前 AI Agents 相关代币的总市值已经达到 120 亿美元，其中 Virtuals Protocol 的原生交易对代币 VIRTUAL，类似于 Solana 公链上的 SOL，连同 AIXBT、GAME、LUNA 等子代币共同撑起整个生态，带动 VIRTUAL 母代币的市值为 AI Agents 相关代币中最高，达到 35 亿美元。

3. Expect 3-5 vertical tracks based on Pump Fun to emerge

Pump Fun has become one of the most profitable applications in Crypto this year as a Launchpad for rapidly deploying tokens at extremely low costs on the Solana network, with thousands of Memecoins launching daily. With the rise of Pump Fun, other blockchain networks have begun to follow suit, launching similar Memecoin issuance and trading platforms, such as SunPump on the Tron network, Uptos on the Aptos network, and Clanker based on Farcaster on the Base network.

Additionally, the Memecoin track is gradually expanding, with the demand for segmentation becoming increasingly strong, evolving into vertical Pump Fun launch platforms, such as vvaifu focused on AI Agents and Pump Science focused on DeSci. AI Agents have already become a multi-billion dollar track, and DeSci is also showing potential with Binance's focus on DeSci and the listing of the representative protocol Bio Protocol. Essentially, this reflects the demand for decentralized token issuance and rapid asset issuance based on different narratives and imaginations, and it is expected that more vertical launch platforms based on Pump Fun will evolve into further segmented tracks in the future.

4. At least 5 Base ecosystem native tokens will be listed on Binance spot

As a bellwether, Binance has listed perpetual contract trading for DEGEN, AERO, VIRTUAL, and AIXBT, but has yet to list any native spot of the Base ecosystem. In terms of traffic, trading activity, and wealth effect, Base is currently the only Ethereum L2 network that can compete with Solana; unlike Solana, the ecological effect of Base is more concentrated, represented by the Virtuals system and Farcaster system, with the Virtuals system ecological market cap nearing $5 billion, leading in the Crypto x AI Agents space.

The Base ecosystem may be the track with the highest odds for betting on listings by top exchanges, and it is only a matter of time before the first Base ecosystem spot is listed on Binance.

As a public chain under the compliant exchange Coinbase, it relies on Coinbase Wallet to open up the fiat channel from Base - USDC to bank accounts. With the formal establishment of