由于俄罗斯的制裁，您可能现在应该购买比特币和以太坊

您应该自己做出投资决定，而不必过多地担心其他投资者的行动。但是有时候，某些Gargantuan投资者或其中的群体可能会带来如此多的资本来承担，以至于他们的行为值得详细理解 - 尤其是当他们积累了相对易波动的资产时，例如比特币（BTC -0.24％）和以太坊（ETH 1.74％）。

You should make your own investment decisions, without directly worrying too much about the actions of other investors. But sometimes, certain gargantuan investors, or groups of them, can bring so much capital to bear that their behavior is worth understanding in detail -- especially when they're accumulating relatively volatile assets like Bitcoin (BTC -0.24%) and Ethereum (ETH 1.74%).

您应该做出自己的投资决策，而不直接担心其他投资者的行动。但是有时候，某些Gargantuan投资者或其中的群体可能会带来如此多的资本来承担，以至于他们的行为值得详细理解 - 尤其是当他们积累了相对易波动的资产时，例如比特币（BTC -0.24％）和以太坊（ETH 1.74％）。

There's one particular and relatively new pattern of behavior among a group of major investors that's important to know about. It might not push the prices of these coins up indefinitely, but it's already having an effect.

一群重要的投资者中有一种特殊且相对较新的行为模式，这一点很重要。它可能不会无限期地推动这些硬币的价格，但已经有效。

Geopolitics are now undeniably a big part of crypto markets

地缘政治现在无疑是加密货币市场的重要组成部分

Bitcoin and Ethereum are assets with a global distribution. That means that in most major economies, people and businesses buy, hold, and sell them, even if it isn't fully legal to do so. In many major countries, cryptocurrency exchanges are operating legally as well. But even fully legal exchanges within well-defined regulatory regimes can be used for illegal or otherwise less-than-wholesome purposes, like dodging international sanctions or money laundering.

比特币和以太坊是具有全球分配的资产。这意味着，在大多数主要经济体中，即使这样做不完全合法，人们和企业也购买，持有和出售它们。在许多主要国家，加密货币交易所也在合法运作。但是，即使是定义明确的监管制度中的完全法律交流，也可以用于非法或以其他方式的目的，例如躲避国际制裁或洗钱。

Russia extracts, refines, and sells a lot of oil. In terms of dollars, Russia's oil trade was worth $192 billion in 2024; the country's native currency is the ruble. Much of that trade is oil sales to India, which uses the rupee as its currency, and China, which uses the yuan. But due to international sanctions on Russia stemming from its war against Ukraine, selling oil in exchange for rupees or yuan directly is not as easy as it used to be, as it'd entail violating sanctions.

俄罗斯提取，完善并出售大量石油。就美元而言，俄罗斯的石油贸易在2024年价值1920亿美元；该国的原始货币是卢布。该贸易的大部分是对印度的石油销售，它使用卢比作为其货币，而中国则使用元。但是，由于对俄罗斯对乌克兰的战争的国际制裁，出售石油以换取卢比或直接的元素并不像以前那样容易，就像违反制裁一样。

So now, per Reuters reporting in mid-March, Russian oil businesses are using Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies to facilitate their payments and evade the barriers to trade posed by the sanctions.

因此，现在，在3月中旬报告的路透社报道，俄罗斯石油企业正在使用比特币，以太坊和其他加密货币来促进其付款，并避免制裁所带来的贸易障碍。

To illustrate how this process works, let's say that a company in India wants to buy oil from Russia. First, the company pays a sketchy middleman, typically a shell company, in rupees. Then, that middleman exchanges the rupees for Bitcoin, Ethereum, or a stablecoin. This is an action that is not in and of itself in violation of any sanctions, so it isn't inhibited in any way at the point of the exchange. Next, the cryptocurrency is sent to the Russian business selling oil. That business then sells its crypto to convert it into rubles.

为了说明这一过程的工作原理，可以说印度的一家公司想从俄罗斯购买石油。首先，该公司用卢比支付一家粗略的中间商，通常是一家壳牌公司。然后，那个中间人将卢比换成比特币，以太坊或稳定币。这是一种没有违反任何制裁的行动，因此在交换时没有以任何方式抑制它。接下来，将加密货币发送给俄罗斯销售石油的企业。然后，该业务将其加密货币转换为卢布。

The payment is cleared, and the oil is transferred accordingly, effectively skirting the sanctions. One Russian crypto exchange faced sanctions from the U.S. and European Union for facilitating this type of workaround in 2022. This ultimately led to it shutting down in early March of this year after some of its stablecoin wallet addresses were blocked by the coin's issuer. However, it's very likely that other exchanges are still in operation, and that more can spring up to take the fallen one's place.

付款已清算，并相应地转移了石油，从而有效地打开制裁。俄罗斯加密货币交易所在2022年促进了这种类型的解决方法，面临着美国和欧洲联盟的制裁。这最终导致它在今年3月初关闭，此前它的一些稳定的钱包地址被硬币的发行人封锁。但是，其他交流很可能仍在运作，并且可能会出现更多的东西来占据堕落的地方。

Therefore, investors should calculate that the sanctions evasion trade is more likely to continue using Bitcoin and Ethereum than it is with stablecoins moving forward. This will create buying pressure for those two coins for as long as the sanctions last, and perhaps even beyond that.

因此，投资者应计算出，逃避贸易的可能性比稳定币的前进更有可能继续使用比特币和以太坊。只要制裁持续，这将为这两枚硬币造成购买压力，甚至超出了这一点。

The force of that pressure may be substantial, depending on future demand for Russian oil.

根据对俄罗斯石油的未来需求，这种压力的力量可能很大。

This could unravel explosively

这可能会爆炸

Cryptocurrency's legal status in Russia is shifting in real time. Its central bank just implemented a three-year pilot program enabling wealthy investors to trade cryptos and derivative financial instruments. The ongoing process is bound to have implications for how the country's domestic businesses can use Bitcoin and Ethereum to avoid sanctions.

加密货币在俄罗斯的法律地位正在实时转移。它的中央银行刚刚实施了一项为期三年的试点计划，使富裕的投资者能够交易加密货币和衍生金融工具。持续的过程必然会对该国的国内企业如何使用比特币和以太坊避免制裁。

Thus, most investors shouldn't commit to buying significant quantities of Bitcoin and Ethereum based solely on the sanctions evasion trade. It's unclear how long Russia will be facing sanctions, so the buying pressure represented by its oil companies may taper off suddenly, causing prices to fall or be more volatile than usual. It's also unclear if there will be attempts at enforcing the sanctions, given the nature of the particular cryptos used.

因此，大多数投资者不应该仅基于制裁贸易购买大量的比特币和以太坊。目前尚不清楚俄罗斯将面临多长时间的制裁，因此石油公司代表的购买压力可能会突然逐渐减少，导致价格下跌或比平常更波动。鉴于使用的特定加密货币的性质，还不清楚是否会尝试执行制裁。

But, like it or not, this saga supports one of the key pillars of Bitcoin's value, which is that it's a form of money that's not subject to the oversight of any one country in the way that fiat currencies are. If it were like fiat currencies and not independent of governments, there'd be a large probability of a central issuing authority blocking the wallet addresses of known sanctions evaders. The whole point of the Russian oil businesses using Bitcoin here is that there's not any authority to say they aren't allowed to do what they're doing. That confirmation of part of its investment thesis could be seen as another reason to buy it, provided that the intention is to hold it for the long term.

但是，不管喜欢与否，这个传奇都支持比特币价值的关键支柱之一，那就是，这是一种不受任何一个国家的监督方式，就像法定货币一样。如果它像法定货币而不是独立于政府，那么中央发行当局可能会阻止已知制裁逃避者的钱包地址。这里使用比特币的俄罗斯石油业务的全部要点是，没有任何权力说他们不允许做他们在做的事情。只要目的是长期持有它，就可以将部分投资论文确认为购买它的另一个原因。

With Ethereum, this new driver is less relevant, and less likely to be sustained. While purchasing from sanction-dodgers could still generate higher prices over the coming months and perhaps even years, the existence of

对于以太坊，这个新驾驶员的相关性较小，并且持续的可能性较小。在从制裁中购买的虽然在接下来的几个月甚至几年中仍然可能产生更高的价格