由於俄羅斯的製裁，您可能現在應該購買比特幣和以太坊

您應該自己做出投資決定，而不必過多地擔心其他投資者的行動。但是有時候，某些Gargantuan投資者或其中的群體可能會帶來如此多的資本來承擔，以至於他們的行為值得詳細理解 - 尤其是當他們積累了相對易波動的資產時，例如比特幣（BTC -0.24％）和以太坊（ETH 1.74％）。

You should make your own investment decisions, without directly worrying too much about the actions of other investors. But sometimes, certain gargantuan investors, or groups of them, can bring so much capital to bear that their behavior is worth understanding in detail -- especially when they're accumulating relatively volatile assets like Bitcoin (BTC -0.24%) and Ethereum (ETH 1.74%).

您應該做出自己的投資決策，而不直接擔心其他投資者的行動。但是有時候，某些Gargantuan投資者或其中的群體可能會帶來如此多的資本來承擔，以至於他們的行為值得詳細理解 - 尤其是當他們積累了相對易波動的資產時，例如比特幣（BTC -0.24％）和以太坊（ETH 1.74％）。

There's one particular and relatively new pattern of behavior among a group of major investors that's important to know about. It might not push the prices of these coins up indefinitely, but it's already having an effect.

一群重要的投資者中有一種特殊且相對較新的行為模式，這一點很重要。它可能不會無限期地推動這些硬幣的價格，但已經有效。

Geopolitics are now undeniably a big part of crypto markets

地緣政治現在無疑是加密貨幣市場的重要組成部分

Bitcoin and Ethereum are assets with a global distribution. That means that in most major economies, people and businesses buy, hold, and sell them, even if it isn't fully legal to do so. In many major countries, cryptocurrency exchanges are operating legally as well. But even fully legal exchanges within well-defined regulatory regimes can be used for illegal or otherwise less-than-wholesome purposes, like dodging international sanctions or money laundering.

比特幣和以太坊是具有全球分配的資產。這意味著，在大多數主要經濟體中，即使這樣做不完全合法，人們和企業也購買，持有和出售它們。在許多主要國家，加密貨幣交易所也在合法運作。但是，即使是定義明確的監管制度中的完全法律交流，也可以用於非法或以其他方式的目的，例如躲避國際制裁或洗錢。

Russia extracts, refines, and sells a lot of oil. In terms of dollars, Russia's oil trade was worth $192 billion in 2024; the country's native currency is the ruble. Much of that trade is oil sales to India, which uses the rupee as its currency, and China, which uses the yuan. But due to international sanctions on Russia stemming from its war against Ukraine, selling oil in exchange for rupees or yuan directly is not as easy as it used to be, as it'd entail violating sanctions.

俄羅斯提取，完善並出售大量石油。就美元而言，俄羅斯的石油貿易在2024年價值1920億美元；該國的原始貨幣是盧布。該貿易的大部分是對印度的石油銷售，它使用盧比作為其貨幣，而中國則使用元。但是，由於對俄羅斯對烏克蘭的戰爭的國際制裁，出售石油以換取盧比或直接的元素並不像以前那樣容易，就像違反制裁一樣。

So now, per Reuters reporting in mid-March, Russian oil businesses are using Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies to facilitate their payments and evade the barriers to trade posed by the sanctions.

因此，現在，在3月中旬報告的路透社報導，俄羅斯石油企業正在使用比特幣，以太坊和其他加密貨幣來促進其付款，並避免制裁所帶來的貿易障礙。

To illustrate how this process works, let's say that a company in India wants to buy oil from Russia. First, the company pays a sketchy middleman, typically a shell company, in rupees. Then, that middleman exchanges the rupees for Bitcoin, Ethereum, or a stablecoin. This is an action that is not in and of itself in violation of any sanctions, so it isn't inhibited in any way at the point of the exchange. Next, the cryptocurrency is sent to the Russian business selling oil. That business then sells its crypto to convert it into rubles.

為了說明這一過程的工作原理，可以說印度的一家公司想從俄羅斯購買石油。首先，該公司用盧比支付一家粗略的中間商，通常是一家殼牌公司。然後，那個中間人將盧比換成比特幣，以太坊或穩定幣。這是一種沒有違反任何制裁的行動，因此在交換時沒有以任何方式抑制它。接下來，將加密貨幣發送給俄羅斯銷售石油的企業。然後，該業務將其加密貨幣轉換為盧布。

The payment is cleared, and the oil is transferred accordingly, effectively skirting the sanctions. One Russian crypto exchange faced sanctions from the U.S. and European Union for facilitating this type of workaround in 2022. This ultimately led to it shutting down in early March of this year after some of its stablecoin wallet addresses were blocked by the coin's issuer. However, it's very likely that other exchanges are still in operation, and that more can spring up to take the fallen one's place.

付款已清算，並相應地轉移了石油，從而有效地打開制裁。俄羅斯加密貨幣交易所在2022年促進了這種類型的解決方法，面臨著美國和歐洲聯盟的製裁。這最終導致它在今年3月初關閉，此前它的一些穩定的錢包地址被硬幣的發行人封鎖。但是，其他交流很可能仍在運作，並且可能會出現更多的東西來佔據墮落的地方。

Therefore, investors should calculate that the sanctions evasion trade is more likely to continue using Bitcoin and Ethereum than it is with stablecoins moving forward. This will create buying pressure for those two coins for as long as the sanctions last, and perhaps even beyond that.

因此，投資者應計算出，逃避貿易的可能性比穩定幣的前進更有可能繼續使用比特幣和以太坊。只要製裁持續，這將為這兩枚硬幣造成購買壓力，甚至超出了這一點。

The force of that pressure may be substantial, depending on future demand for Russian oil.

根據對俄羅斯石油的未來需求，這種壓力的力量可能很大。

This could unravel explosively

這可能會爆炸

Cryptocurrency's legal status in Russia is shifting in real time. Its central bank just implemented a three-year pilot program enabling wealthy investors to trade cryptos and derivative financial instruments. The ongoing process is bound to have implications for how the country's domestic businesses can use Bitcoin and Ethereum to avoid sanctions.

加密貨幣在俄羅斯的法律地位正在實時轉移。它的中央銀行剛剛實施了一項為期三年的試點計劃，使富裕的投資者能夠交易加密貨幣和衍生金融工具。持續的過程必然會對該國的國內企業如何使用比特幣和以太坊避免制裁。

Thus, most investors shouldn't commit to buying significant quantities of Bitcoin and Ethereum based solely on the sanctions evasion trade. It's unclear how long Russia will be facing sanctions, so the buying pressure represented by its oil companies may taper off suddenly, causing prices to fall or be more volatile than usual. It's also unclear if there will be attempts at enforcing the sanctions, given the nature of the particular cryptos used.

因此，大多數投資者不應該僅基於製裁貿易購買大量的比特幣和以太坊。目前尚不清楚俄羅斯將面臨多長時間的製裁，因此石油公司代表的購買壓力可能會突然逐漸減少，導致價格下跌或比平常更波動。鑑於使用的特定加密貨幣的性質，還不清楚是否會嘗試執行製裁。

But, like it or not, this saga supports one of the key pillars of Bitcoin's value, which is that it's a form of money that's not subject to the oversight of any one country in the way that fiat currencies are. If it were like fiat currencies and not independent of governments, there'd be a large probability of a central issuing authority blocking the wallet addresses of known sanctions evaders. The whole point of the Russian oil businesses using Bitcoin here is that there's not any authority to say they aren't allowed to do what they're doing. That confirmation of part of its investment thesis could be seen as another reason to buy it, provided that the intention is to hold it for the long term.

但是，不管喜歡與否，這個傳奇都支持比特幣價值的關鍵支柱之一，那就是，這是一種不受任何一個國家的監督方式，就像法定貨幣一樣。如果它像法定貨幣而不是獨立於政府，那麼中央發行當局可能會阻止已知制裁逃避者的錢包地址。這裡使用比特幣的俄羅斯石油業務的全部要點是，沒有任何權力說他們不允許做他們在做的事情。只要目的是長期持有它，就可以將部分投資論文確認為購買它的另一個原因。

With Ethereum, this new driver is less relevant, and less likely to be sustained. While purchasing from sanction-dodgers could still generate higher prices over the coming months and perhaps even years, the existence of

對於以太坊，這個新駕駛員的相關性較小，並且持續的可能性較小。在從制裁中購買的雖然在接下來的幾個月甚至幾年中仍然可能產生更高的價格