BTC价格历史回调模式表明可预测的周期

比特币投资者正在质疑最近的更正是否结束，因为BTC价格交易约为82,000美元。

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital says that recent pullbacks fit well within historical patterns and shouldn’t alarm investors.

加密分析师Rekt Capital表示，最近的回调非常适合历史模式，不应震惊投资者。

According to the analyst, the recent pullback fits well within historical patterns and shouldn’t alarm investors.

根据分析师的说法，最近的回调非常适合历史模式，不应震惊投资者。

Looking into previous cycles, Rekt Capital says that Bitcoin has experienced several corrections of similar magnitude during its current bull run. This includes a 34% pullback in 2017, 38% and 40% corrections, and finally a shallower 30% drawdown.

Rekt Capital研究了以前的周期，比特币在目前的牛市中经历了几次相似的校正。这包括2017年的34％回调，38％和40％的校正，最后是30％的缩减。

However, in 2021, the bull market saw a 31% pullback early on, later followed by a much deeper 55% correction before concluding with a 25% drawdown that preceded the final rally to new all-time highs.

然而，在2021年，牛市早些时候撤退了31％，随后进行了更深的55％的纠正，然后结束了25％的下降，在最终集会之前达到了新的历史高潮。

This pattern of varying correction depths throughout market cycles appears to be repeating in the current bull run.

整个市场周期的这种不同校正深度的模式似乎在当前的牛跑中重复。

“In 2017 we’ve seen actually deeper pullbacks than 30 percent,” Rekt Capital explains, noting a clear “tendency of these pullbacks getting deeper as the cycle matured.”

Rekt Capital解释说：“在2017年，我们实际上看到了比30％更深的回调。

However, he also points out that in both 2017 and 2021, “the final pullback in the bull run… is actually going to be quicker, it’s going to be shallower, and it’s going to enable the final run up to a bull market peak.”

但是，他还指出，在2017年和2021年，“公牛奔跑中的最后回调……实际上将会更快，它将变得更浅，这将使最终的奔跑达到牛市峰。”

suggest that the current 30% drawdown more likely corresponds to the middle-stage corrections seen in previous bull markets, rather than signaling the uptrend’s end or the final shakeout.

表明，目前的30％的下水道更有可能对应于以前牛市中的中阶段校正，而不是向上升趋势的结束或最终震动表示。

Bitcoin's RSI Drops Below Key Level As Sellers Get 'A Little Bit Too Enthusiastic'

随着卖家的“有点热情”，比特币的RSI下降到关键水平以下

Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped into oversold territory, a condition that has historically been known to precede major bounces.

比特币的相对强度指数（RSI）已降落到超售领土上，这种情况在历史上一直在重大弹跳之前。

When Bitcoin’s RSI drops below 30, it typically signals “a zone of overselling” where “sellers get a little bit too enthusiastic” and eventually become exhausted, Rekt Capital says.

Rekt Capital说，当比特币的RSI下降到30台以下时，它通常标志着“销售的区域”“卖家变得有点太热情”，并最终变得精疲力尽。

He mentioned that a particularly bullish signal has formed on the RSI chart. This pattern has accurately marked bottoms throughout Bitcoin’s history, including the 2022 bear market low.

他提到在RSI图表上形成了特别看涨的信号。这种模式在整个比特币历史上都准确地标志着底部，包括2022年熊市低点。

The analyst noted that the current market structure also mirrors previous “reaccumulation ranges” seen earlier in this cycle. Bitcoin experienced a downside deviation” from its trading range, similar to the post-halving period when prices temporarily broke below support before recovering.

分析师指出，当前的市场结构还反映了以前在此周期中看到的“重新汇总范围”。比特币从其交易范围内经历了下行偏差”，类似于在恢复之前暂时低于支撑的备用后期。

Recovery Path Implies Key Level Reclamation

恢复路径意味着关键水平开垦

For Bitcoin to confirm that the correction has ended and resume its upward trajectory, several technical milestones need to be achieved, according to the analyst. The primary objective is for BTC price to reclaim the lower boundary of its recent trading range around $93,500.

根据分析师的说法，为了确认校正已经结束并恢复其向上轨迹，需要实现几个技术里程碑。主要目的是以BTC价格收回其最近的交易范围的下边界，约为93,500美元。

“Going forward, it’s going to be really important for Bitcoin to try and get as close as possible to $93.5K to try and reclaim this range and resynchronize with this overall reaccumulation range,” the analyst said. This level is a key threshold that would confirm buyers have regained control of the market.

这位分析师说：“展望未来，对于比特币来说，尝试尽可能接近93.5万美元，以尝试收回此范围并重新同步，这将非常重要。”该水平是一个关键阈值，可以确认买家已经重新控制了市场。

The current price action shows BTC price attempting to form a base at the bottom of its downside deviation. It’s a process Rekt Capital describes as “clustering.” This pattern usually involves multiple weeks of price consolidation before a meaningful recovery can begin.

当前的价格动作表明，BTC价格试图在其下行偏差的底部形成基础。这是Rekt Capital所说的过程。这种模式通常涉及在有意义的恢复开始之前的几周价格合并。

The overall technical setup suggests that while Bitcoin may have found its correction low, the path back to all-time highs will likely require patience.

总体技术设置表明，尽管比特币可能发现其更正较低，但回到历史高高的道路可能需要耐心。