比特币（BTC）分析师Samson Mow警告心理偏见欺骗新的加密投资者

比特币（BTC）分析师Samson Mow警告说，心理偏见正在欺骗新的加密货币投资者。 JAN3的首席执行官最近指出，大多数加密市场的新进入者都被误导了

Bitcoin analyst Samson Mow has issued a stark warning to new cryptocurrency investors about the psychological biases that are deceiving them.

比特币分析师Samson Mow已向新的加密货币投资者发出了明显的警告，内容涉及欺骗它们的心理偏见。

The CEO of Jan3 noted on Thursday that most new entrants to crypto markets are being misinformed by what economists call ‘unit bias,’ leading them to make bad investment decisions based on the price of coins rather than real value.

JAN3的首席执行官周四指出，加密市场的大多数新进入者都被经济学家所说的“单位偏见”误导了，导致他们根据硬币的价格而不是实际价值做出不良的投资决策。

“Inexperienced investors tend to confuse cheaper-priced altcoins as good bargains against Bitcoin,” explained Mow. “Most alts exploit unit bias by having a very high supply, so people can’t tell what they’re buying.”

Mow解释说：“缺乏经验的投资者倾向于将价格便宜的山寨币视为对比特币的优惠式便宜货。” “大多数Alts通过很高的供应来利用单位偏见，因此人们无法分辨他们购买的东西。”

He highlighted this confusion with an example: “XRP is *only* $2 but Bitcoin is too pricey at $85,000!” This price illusion arises because most other cryptocurrencies have such much bigger overall supplies than Bitcoin’s 21 million.

他用一个例子强调了这种困惑：“ XRP仅 * * $ 2，但比特币太贵了，价格为85,000美元！”这种价格幻想之所以出现，是因为大多数其他加密货币的总体供应比比特币的2100万。

Most alts take advantage of unit bias by utilizing a very high supply, so people can’t figure out what they’re buying.“XRP is *only* $2 but Bitcoin is too expensive at $85,000!”Unit bias is absolutely destroying the uninitiated.#Bitcoin only.

大多数Alts通过使用非常高的供应来利用单位偏见，因此人们无法弄清楚他们购买的东西。“ XRP仅 * * $ 2，但比特币价格太贵了，价格为85,000美元！”单位偏见绝对破坏了未经启发的人。＃＃仅比特币。

— Samson Mow (@Excellion) April 19, 2025The implication is that fresh purchasers would rather hold full coins of lesser cryptocurrencies than fractional amounts of higher-priced coins.

- Samson Mow（@Excellion）2025年4月19日，这意味着新鲜的购买者宁愿持有较小的加密货币的完整硬币，而不是分数较高的高价硬币。

“Unit bias is smashing the uninitialised huge time,” said Mow. “This is turning into an unfathomable mess.” He added that newbie investors who aren’t aware of the difference in market capitalization and individual coin price are being damaged by ignorance.

莫夫说：“单位偏见正在粉碎非国际化的巨大时光。” “这变成了不可思议的混乱。”他补充说，不知道市值和个人硬币价格差异的新手投资者因无知而受到损害。

Comparing prices by equal supply.

通过同等供应比较价格。

ETH: $193B market cap / 21M = $9,200.Instead of buying that one twenty-one millionth of Etherium, you could buy just 0.11 BTC.

ETH：$ 193B市值 / 2100万美元= $ 9,200。购买那二十百万的Etherium，您只能购买0.11 BTC。

— Samson Mow (@Excellion) April 19, 2025.Mow devised a thought experiment to visualize how much steeper cryptocurrency prices would be if they all shared Bitcoin’s limited supply.

- Samson Mow（@Excellion）2025年4月19日。莫夫设计了一个思想实验，以可视化如果他们都共享比特币的有限供应，那么他们的加密货币价格将会更高。

According to his calculations, if Ethereum had 21 million coins (compared to its much larger supply), each coin would have to cost about $9,200 – a 278,740% increase from its current price. Similarly, XRP would rise 470% to $5,800 per coin, and Solana would climb 2,325% to $3,400.

根据他的计算，如果以太坊有2100万枚硬币（与供应量更大相比），则每枚硬币的成本约为9,200美元，比目前的价格增加了278,740％。同样，XRP将上涨470％，至每枚硬币5,800美元，而Solana将攀升2,325％至3,400美元。

Those numbers are calculated by taking the market cap of the alts and dividing by 21 million, thus framing their supply in terms of Bitcoin supply.

这些数字是通过将Alts的市值划分并除以2100万而计算得出的，从而在比特币供应方面取代了它们的供应。

ETH: $193B market cap / 21M = $9,200.Instead of buying that one twenty-one millionth of Etherium, you could buy just 0.11 BTC.— Samson Mow (@Excellion) April 19, 2025.You can purchase one 21-millionth of the supply of BTC for ~$85,000.What happens if you remove unit bias from alts in order to find the equivalent of 1/21 million?There is no way that these altcoins are worth that much.

ETH：$ 193B市值 / 21m = $ 9,200。购买那二十一百万的以电子的购买，您可以只购买0.11 btc。这些山寨币值得这么多。

— Samson Mow (@Excellion) April 19, 2025.As such, Mow concluded that most new investors are being led astray by the cheaper prices of altcoins despite their lower market capitalizations.

- Samson Mow（@Excellion）2025年4月19日。因此，MOW得出结论，尽管他们的市值较低，但大多数新投资者仍被替代币的价格较低的价格误入歧途。

“We can buy one 21-millionth of the BTC supply for about $85,000. What if we try to remove unit bias from alts in order to find the equivalent of 1/21 million?” asked Mow.

“我们可以以约85,000美元的价格购买BTC供应量的2100万。如果我们试图从Alts中删除单位偏见，以找到相当于1/21亿美元的偏见呢？”割问。

His conclusion was simple: “There is no way that these altcoins are worth that much.”

他的结论很简单：“这些山寨币绝不值得那么多。”

Bitcoin's portion of the overall cryptocurrency market has reached around 60%, according to TradingView data. This indicator, known as “Bitcoin dominance,” measures Bitcoin's market capitalization in comparison to the collective capitalization of all other cryptocurrencies.

根据TradingView数据，比特币整体加密货币市场的一部分已达到60％左右。与所有其他加密货币的集体资本化相比，该指标，称为“比特币优势”，衡量了比特币的市值。

Following recent trends in the markets and his analysis of unit bias, Mow predicts that “Bitcoin dominance is going to go much higher” than its current level or even the previous projections.

遵循市场的最新趋势以及对单位偏见的分析，MOW预测“比特币优势将要高得多”，远高于其当前水平甚至先前的预测。

This prediction stands in contrast to earlier forecasts, which anticipated a shift in capital from Bitcoin to other cryptocurrencies later in 2024 and early 2025.

该预测与早期的预测相反，后者预计资本将从比特币转移到2024年晚些时候和2025年初的其他加密货币。