BTC Price Historical Pullback Patterns Suggest Predictable Cycle

Bitcoin investors are questioning whether the recent correction is over as BTC price trades around $82,000.

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital says that recent pullbacks fit well within historical patterns and shouldn’t alarm investors.

According to the analyst, the recent pullback fits well within historical patterns and shouldn’t alarm investors.

Looking into previous cycles, Rekt Capital says that Bitcoin has experienced several corrections of similar magnitude during its current bull run. This includes a 34% pullback in 2017, 38% and 40% corrections, and finally a shallower 30% drawdown.

However, in 2021, the bull market saw a 31% pullback early on, later followed by a much deeper 55% correction before concluding with a 25% drawdown that preceded the final rally to new all-time highs.

This pattern of varying correction depths throughout market cycles appears to be repeating in the current bull run.

“In 2017 we’ve seen actually deeper pullbacks than 30 percent,” Rekt Capital explains, noting a clear “tendency of these pullbacks getting deeper as the cycle matured.”

However, he also points out that in both 2017 and 2021, “the final pullback in the bull run… is actually going to be quicker, it’s going to be shallower, and it’s going to enable the final run up to a bull market peak.”

suggest that the current 30% drawdown more likely corresponds to the middle-stage corrections seen in previous bull markets, rather than signaling the uptrend’s end or the final shakeout.

Bitcoin's RSI Drops Below Key Level As Sellers Get 'A Little Bit Too Enthusiastic'

Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped into oversold territory, a condition that has historically been known to precede major bounces.

When Bitcoin’s RSI drops below 30, it typically signals “a zone of overselling” where “sellers get a little bit too enthusiastic” and eventually become exhausted, Rekt Capital says.

He mentioned that a particularly bullish signal has formed on the RSI chart. This pattern has accurately marked bottoms throughout Bitcoin’s history, including the 2022 bear market low.

The analyst noted that the current market structure also mirrors previous “reaccumulation ranges” seen earlier in this cycle. Bitcoin experienced a downside deviation” from its trading range, similar to the post-halving period when prices temporarily broke below support before recovering.

Recovery Path Implies Key Level Reclamation

For Bitcoin to confirm that the correction has ended and resume its upward trajectory, several technical milestones need to be achieved, according to the analyst. The primary objective is for BTC price to reclaim the lower boundary of its recent trading range around $93,500.

“Going forward, it’s going to be really important for Bitcoin to try and get as close as possible to $93.5K to try and reclaim this range and resynchronize with this overall reaccumulation range,” the analyst said. This level is a key threshold that would confirm buyers have regained control of the market.

The current price action shows BTC price attempting to form a base at the bottom of its downside deviation. It’s a process Rekt Capital describes as “clustering.” This pattern usually involves multiple weeks of price consolidation before a meaningful recovery can begin.

The overall technical setup suggests that while Bitcoin may have found its correction low, the path back to all-time highs will likely require patience.