BTC價格歷史回調模式表明可預測的周期

比特幣投資者正在質疑最近的更正是否結束，因為BTC價格交易約為82,000美元。

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital says that recent pullbacks fit well within historical patterns and shouldn’t alarm investors.

加密分析師Rekt Capital表示，最近的回調非常適合歷史模式，不應震驚投資者。

According to the analyst, the recent pullback fits well within historical patterns and shouldn’t alarm investors.

根據分析師的說法，最近的回調非常適合歷史模式，不應震驚投資者。

Looking into previous cycles, Rekt Capital says that Bitcoin has experienced several corrections of similar magnitude during its current bull run. This includes a 34% pullback in 2017, 38% and 40% corrections, and finally a shallower 30% drawdown.

Rekt Capital研究了以前的周期，比特幣在目前的牛市中經歷了幾次相似的校正。這包括2017年的34％回調，38％和40％的校正，最後是30％的縮減。

However, in 2021, the bull market saw a 31% pullback early on, later followed by a much deeper 55% correction before concluding with a 25% drawdown that preceded the final rally to new all-time highs.

然而，在2021年，牛市早些時候撤退了31％，隨後進行了更深的55％的糾正，然後結束了25％的下降，在最終集會之前達到了新的歷史高潮。

This pattern of varying correction depths throughout market cycles appears to be repeating in the current bull run.

整個市場週期的這種不同校正深度的模式似乎在當前的牛跑中重複。

“In 2017 we’ve seen actually deeper pullbacks than 30 percent,” Rekt Capital explains, noting a clear “tendency of these pullbacks getting deeper as the cycle matured.”

Rekt Capital解釋說：“在2017年，我們實際上看到了比30％更深的回調。

However, he also points out that in both 2017 and 2021, “the final pullback in the bull run… is actually going to be quicker, it’s going to be shallower, and it’s going to enable the final run up to a bull market peak.”

但是，他還指出，在2017年和2021年，“公牛奔跑中的最後回調……實際上將會更快，它將變得更淺，這將使最終的奔跑達到牛市峰。”

suggest that the current 30% drawdown more likely corresponds to the middle-stage corrections seen in previous bull markets, rather than signaling the uptrend’s end or the final shakeout.

表明，目前的30％的下水道更有可能對應於以前牛市中的中階段校正，而不是向上升趨勢的結束或最終震動表示。

Bitcoin's RSI Drops Below Key Level As Sellers Get 'A Little Bit Too Enthusiastic'

隨著賣家的“有點熱情”，比特幣的RSI下降到關鍵水平以下

Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped into oversold territory, a condition that has historically been known to precede major bounces.

比特幣的相對強度指數（RSI）已降落到超售領土上，這種情況在歷史上一直在重大彈跳之前。

When Bitcoin’s RSI drops below 30, it typically signals “a zone of overselling” where “sellers get a little bit too enthusiastic” and eventually become exhausted, Rekt Capital says.

Rekt Capital說，當比特幣的RSI下降到30台以下時，它通常標誌著“銷售的區域”“賣家變得有點太熱情”，並最終變得精疲力盡。

He mentioned that a particularly bullish signal has formed on the RSI chart. This pattern has accurately marked bottoms throughout Bitcoin’s history, including the 2022 bear market low.

他提到在RSI圖表上形成了特別看漲的信號。這種模式在整個比特幣歷史上都準確地標誌著底部，包括2022年熊市低點。

The analyst noted that the current market structure also mirrors previous “reaccumulation ranges” seen earlier in this cycle. Bitcoin experienced a downside deviation” from its trading range, similar to the post-halving period when prices temporarily broke below support before recovering.

分析師指出，當前的市場結構還反映了以前在此週期中看到的“重新匯總範圍”。比特幣從其交易範圍內經歷了下行偏差”，類似於在恢復之前暫時低於支撐的備用後期。

Recovery Path Implies Key Level Reclamation

恢復路徑意味著關鍵水平開墾

For Bitcoin to confirm that the correction has ended and resume its upward trajectory, several technical milestones need to be achieved, according to the analyst. The primary objective is for BTC price to reclaim the lower boundary of its recent trading range around $93,500.

根據分析師的說法，為了確認校正已經結束並恢復其向上軌跡，需要實現幾個技術里程碑。主要目的是以BTC價格收回其最近的交易範圍的下邊界，約為93,500美元。

“Going forward, it’s going to be really important for Bitcoin to try and get as close as possible to $93.5K to try and reclaim this range and resynchronize with this overall reaccumulation range,” the analyst said. This level is a key threshold that would confirm buyers have regained control of the market.

這位分析師說：“展望未來，對於比特幣來說，嘗試盡可能接近93.5萬美元，以嘗試收回此範圍並重新同步，這將非常重要。”該水平是一個關鍵閾值，可以確認買家已經重新控制了市場。

The current price action shows BTC price attempting to form a base at the bottom of its downside deviation. It’s a process Rekt Capital describes as “clustering.” This pattern usually involves multiple weeks of price consolidation before a meaningful recovery can begin.

當前的價格動作表明，BTC價格試圖在其下行偏差的底部形成基礎。這是Rekt Capital所說的過程。這種模式通常涉及在有意義的恢復開始之前的幾週價格合併。

The overall technical setup suggests that while Bitcoin may have found its correction low, the path back to all-time highs will likely require patience.

總體技術設置表明，儘管比特幣可能發現其更正較低，但回到歷史高高的道路可能需要耐心。