金砖国家：迈向世界新秩序

金砖国家刚刚在喀山举行峰会，地缘政治背景十分激烈。乌克兰战争、中东冲突和美国之间的冲突

The BRICS summit in Kazan unfolded against a backdrop of geopolitical volatility, with the war in Ukraine, Middle Eastern conflicts, and the American presidential election all vying for attention. Yet, amidst this turbulence, the BRICS quietly asserted themselves as an alternative to the United States.

金砖国家喀山峰会是在地缘政治动荡的背景下召开的，乌克兰战争、中东冲突、美国总统大选等都成为人们关注的焦点。然而，在这场动荡中，金砖国家却悄悄宣称自己是美国的替代者。

BRICS vs America

金砖国家 vs 美国

The BRICS are not merely an economic alliance; they embody a radical civilizational project towards a multipolar world order, breaking away from Western hegemony. This vision, championed by Russia and China, offers a global alternative to the liberal democracy model.

金砖国家不仅仅是一个经济联盟，更是一个经济联盟。它们体现了一项激进的文明计划，旨在摆脱西方霸权，建立多极世界秩序。这一由俄罗斯和中国倡导的愿景为自由民主模式提供了全球替代方案。

The BRICS are forging the core of a new revolutionary ideology to reorganize humanity on different foundations: neither Western, Protestant, capitalist, nor liberal. This project could take 30 to 40 years to fully materialize.

金砖国家正在打造一种新的革命意识形态的核心，以在不同的基础上重组人类：既不是西方的、新教的、资本主义的，也不是自由主义的。该项目可能需要 30 至 40 年才能完全实现。

Russia appears at the forefront of this transformation. Foreign Minister Lavrov recently approved the creation of a center for multipolarity studies, signaling the country’s deep commitment.

俄罗斯走在了这一转变的最前沿。拉夫罗夫外长最近批准成立多极化研究中心，这表明了该国的坚定承诺。

China, more cautious but equally determined, develops its own vision of multipolarity, tailored to its national interests.

中国更加谨慎但同样坚定，根据其国家利益制定了自己的多极化愿景。

The BRICS want to kill the dollar

金砖国家想要消灭美元

Several major initiatives are underway towards de-dollarization. At the heart of this transformation lies the ambitious project of a new common reserve currency for member countries.

去美元化的几项重大举措正在进行中。这一转变的核心是为成员国建立新的共同储备货币这一雄心勃勃的项目。

In parallel, the BRICS are actively developing alternative payment systems aimed at replacing the Western SWIFT system.

与此同时，金砖国家正在积极开发替代支付系统，旨在取代西方的SWIFT系统。

The New Development Bank, based in Shanghai, is also undergoing a profound structural reform. The establishment of the BRICS Pay system is another major initiative aimed at facilitating international transactions between member countries.

总部位于上海的新开发银行也正在进行深刻的结构改革。金砖国家支付系统的建立是旨在便利成员国之间国际交易的又一重大举措。

The exchanges between Russia and China perfectly illustrate this evolution, with a gradual abandonment of the dollar in their bilateral transactions.

俄罗斯和中国之间的交流完美地说明了这一演变，在双边交易中逐渐放弃美元。

A difficult transition?

一个艰难的转变？

The shift to a new global economic system faces considerable obstacles.深くこの変革に抵抗を示している。

向新的全球经济体系的转变面临着相当大的障碍。

A colossal effort of persuasion is necessary with business leaders to convince them of the advantages of a new global financial architecture.

商界领袖需要付出巨大的说服努力，让他们相信新的全球金融架构的优势。

The establishment of new financial infrastructures also poses major technical challenges. The historical weight of the Bretton Woods system, in place for nearly eight decades, does not facilitate this transition.

新型金融基础设施的建立也带来了重大的技术挑战。布雷顿森林体系已经存在了近八年，其历史影响力并不利于这一转变。

Africa: the center of gravity of the BRICS

非洲：金砖国家的重心

The African continent is emerging as a major player in this global reconfiguration. The accession of Ethiopia and Egypt, followed by the candidacies of Nigeria, Zimbabwe and other countries, reflects a new phase of decolonization.

非洲大陆正在成为这场全球重组的主要参与者。埃塞俄比亚和埃及的加入，以及尼日利亚、津巴布韦和其他国家的候选资格，反映了非殖民化的新阶段。

Ethiopia occupies a special place in this movement. Never colonized, it symbolizes African pride and resistance against Western powers. Its Christian tradition makes it an important cultural bridge between the various civilizations of the continent.

埃塞俄比亚在这场运动中占有特殊的地位。它从未被殖民过，象征着非洲的自豪感和对西方列强的抵抗。它的基督教传统使其成为非洲大陆不同文明之间的重要文化桥梁。

The African continent sees in the BRICS a historic opportunity for transformation. The emancipation from Western influence is a fundamental first objective for these nations.

非洲大陆在金砖国家中看到了历史性转型机遇。摆脱西方影响是这些国家的首要目标。

Nigeria stands out as a central player in this dynamic. Its rich Yoruba culture and considerable demographic weight grant it a special status. The country has the natural resources and human capital necessary to become a major pole in this new global configuration.

尼日利亚在这一动态中脱颖而出，成为核心参与者。其丰富的约鲁巴文化和相当大的人口比重赋予它特殊的地位。该国拥有成为这一新的全球格局中的重要一极所需的自然资源和人力资本。

The crucial role of Turkey

土耳其的关键作用

The potential entry of Turkey into the BRICS marks an unprecedented historic turning point. For the first time, a NATO member country is actively seeking to join this alternative alliance.

土耳其加入金砖国家的可能性标志着一个前所未有的历史转折点。北约成员国首次积极寻求加入这一替代联盟。

Erdogan’s choice reflects a particularly complex and ambitious Eurasian strategy. Maintaining ties with NATO remains a priority for Ankara, which simultaneously cultivates privileged relations with Russia, China, and India.

埃尔多安的选择反映了一个特别复杂和雄心勃勃的欧亚战略。维持与北约的关系仍然是安卡拉的首要任务，它同时与俄罗斯、中国和印度建立了特殊关系。

This unique position allows Turkey to position itself as an essential pivot power between the West and the East.

这一独特的地位使土耳其能够将自己定位为东西方之间重要的枢纽力量。

The Turkish decision faces considerable internal resistance. The Turkish establishment, of which more than 90% remain deeply attached to the country’s Atlantic orientation, expresses its reluctance.

土耳其的决定面临相当大的内部阻力。土耳其权势集团90%以上仍深信该国面向大西洋的方向，对此表示不情愿。

Economic elites continue to favor historical ties with the European Union, fearing the consequences of a too radical alliance shift.

经济精英继续青睐与欧盟的历史关系，担心过于激进的联盟转变所带来的后果。

Turkish society itself is marked by a constant tension between its traditional aspirations and its desire for modernization.

土耳其社会本身的特点是传统愿望与现代化愿望之间持续紧张。

The Middle East in transformation

转型中的中东

The conflict in Gaza has profoundly disrupted regional dynamics in the Middle East.

加沙冲突深刻扰乱了中东地区的动态。

The normalization process between Israel and Saudi Arabia harshly interrupted in the face of escalating violence.

以色列和沙特阿拉伯之间的正常化进程因暴力升级而严重中断。

The ambitious project of the l2U2 corridor, intended to connect India to Europe via the Middle East, is now being questioned.

雄心勃勃的 l2U2 走廊项目旨在通过中东将印度与欧洲连接起来，但现在正受到质疑。

In light of this situation, several Arab countries have begun to turn towards the BRICS, seeing in them a credible alternative to Western influence.

鉴于这种情况，一些阿拉伯国家开始转向金砖国家，认为金砖国家是西方影响力之外的可靠替代方案。

The Saudi kingdom, under the leadership of Prince Mohammed bin Salman, pursues a particularly complex balancing act.

沙特王国在穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼亲王的领导下，追求一种特别复杂的平衡行为。

The country constantly oscillates between its desire to join the BRICS and the necessity to preserve its historic alliance with the United States.

该国不断在加入金砖国家的愿望和维持与美国历史联盟的必要性之间摇摆不定。

Saudi society itself is undergoing a profound transformation, seeking to reconcile the modernization imperatives desired by MBS with the weight of Wahhabi tradition.

沙特社会本身正在经历一场深刻的变革，寻求将穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼所期望的现代化要求与瓦哈比传统的影响力相调和。

The decisive role of Brazil within the BRICS

巴西在金砖国家中的决定性作用

The future Brazilian presidency of the BRICS in 2025 is set to be a decisive moment for the organization. The country has considerable diplomatic capital in Africa, the result of decades of cooperation and cultural exchanges.

巴西将于 2025 年担任金砖国家主席国，这对于该组织来说将是一个决定性时刻。中国在非洲拥有大量外交资本，这是数十年合作和文化交流的结果。

The deep ties that unite Brazil to the African continent, particularly through the heritage of Afro

巴西与非洲大陆的深厚联系，特别是通过非洲传统