根据链度指标，比特币（BTC）可能进入了可能的市场冷却阶段。

该分析公司的数据阐明了比特币已实现的帽和热帽之间的关系 - 这两个指标与整体网络估值有关。

CryptoQuant's analysis of key on-chain metrics has revealed that Bitcoin (BTC) might have entered a possible market cooldown phase.

隐式对关键链链指标的分析表明，比特币（BTC）可能已经进入了可能的市场冷却阶段。

The analytics firm's data highlighted the relationship between Bitcoin's Realized Cap and Thermo Cap, indicators related to the overall network valuation.

该分析公司的数据强调了比特币已实现的上限和热帽之间的关系，这与整体网络估值有关。

The emergence of a "Dead Cross," where the Thermo Cap dips below the Realized Cap, has historically been observed to correlate with significant Bitcoin price corrections. This observation has put some traders on edge regarding near-term price action.

从历史上观察到，“死十字”的出现在其中，热帽倾角下方下降到已实现的帽子以下，这与比特币价格更正相关。这一观察结果使一些交易者在近期价格行动方面处于优势。

If this past trend repeats, Bitcoin may retreat toward the $75,000 support level, despite broader underlying bullish market sentiment often cited by analysts.

如果过去的趋势重复出现，尽管分析师经常引用了基本的看涨市场情绪，但比特币可能会撤退到75,000美元的支持水平。

Understanding Bitcoin's Realized Cap vs. Thermo Cap

了解比特币的实现帽与热帽

The Realized Cap represents Bitcoin's aggregate network valuation based on the price at which each coin last moved on the blockchain.

实现的上限根据每个硬币上次在区块链上移动的价格代表比特币的总网络估值。

This metric provides a more accurate picture of the network's true economic value by reflecting actual transaction prices and effectively filtering out likely lost or long-dormant Bitcoin holdings, explained CryptoQuant analyst Bilal Huseynov.

加密分析师Bilal Huseynov解释说，该指标通过反映实际的交易价格并有效地过滤了可能丢失或长期休眠的比特币持有量，从而更准确地了解了网络的真实经济价值。

The Thermo Cap, conversely, depicts the total cumulative US dollar value of Bitcoin introduced into circulation via miner block rewards paid out over the network's entire history.

相反，Thermo Cap描绘了通过矿工块奖励在网络的整个历史记录中付出的循环中的比特币累积美元价值。

Analysts use the Thermo Cap alongside other valuation metrics like Market Cap and Realized Cap to help gauge potential market cycle tops or bottoms and evaluate net capital flows into or out of the Bitcoin network.

分析师使用Thermo Cap与其他估值指标（如市值）一起使用，并实现了CAP，以帮助衡量潜在的市场周期顶部或底部，并评估净资本流入或从比特币网络中评估。

When the Thermo Cap value crosses below the Realized Cap value, this specific pattern has historically signaled the potential onset of a significant market correction phase for Bitcoin.

当Thermo Cap值越过已实现的CAP值以下时，这种特定模式在历史上表明了比特币的重要市场校正阶段的潜力。

This is reminiscent of a similar "Dead Cross" that occurred on this indicator before Bitcoin's major 2022 bear market phase, which saw prices fall from around $45,000 down to approximately $16,000.

这让人联想到比特币主要2022年熊市阶段之前在该指标上发生的类似“死十字”，该指标的价格从约45,000美元下降到大约16,000美元。

Bitcoin's Bullish Case Despite Red Flags

尽管有危险，但比特币的看涨案例

Now, with this Thermo Cap/Realized Cap indicator flashing red again according to CryptoQuant's charts, concerns about a potential temporary price reversal are rising among some on-chain analysts.

现在，随着该热帽/实现的帽指示剂再次根据加密量的图表再次闪烁红色，对潜在的临时价格逆转的担忧正在上升。

Huseynov, who credited fellow analyst Avocado_onchain for highlighting the pattern's recent development, also suggested that based on this signal's history, a price retest of the $75,000 level could potentially occur before Bitcoin resumes any further significant upward momentum.

豪斯诺夫（Huseynov）归功于分析师鳄梨_onchain（Avocado_onchain）强调了该模式的最新发展，他还建议，基于该信号的历史，重新测试75,000美元的价格可能会发生在比特币恢复任何进一步的重要上升势头之前。

However, other analysts argue that Bitcoin's underlying strength, driven partly by ongoing institutional demand, remains generally intact.

但是，其他分析人士认为，比特币的基本强度部分是由持续的机构需求驱动的，它通常仍然完好无损。

For example, investment firm Metaplanet continued its aggressive Bitcoin strategy by buying another 160 BTC (worth over $13 million) recently, bringing its total reported corporate holdings to 4,206 BTC.

例如，投资公司Metaplanet最近购买了160 BTC（价值超过1300万美元），继续其积极的比特币战略，这使其总报告的公司持有量达到4,206 BTC。

What Should Traders Watch Now?

交易者现在应该看什么？

Large institutional moves like Metaplanet's provide some underlying support and bullish market momentum signals.

诸如Metaplanet的大型机构举动提​​供了一些基本的支持和看涨市场势头的信号。

But short-term traders should likely remain more cautious as historical data suggests that indicators like the Thermo Cap/Realized Cap cross often precede noticeable price pullbacks, even if the longer-term uptrend remains valid.

但是，由于历史数据表明，诸如Thermo Cap/已实现的CAP交叉之类的指标通常在价格下跌之前，即使长期的上升趋势仍然有效，短期交易者可能会保持更加谨慎。

If this "Dead Cross" signal is confirmed by further negative price action, traders will watch key support levels closely.

如果通过进一步的负价格行动确认了“死十字”信号，则交易者将密切关注关键支持水平。

Whether Bitcoin will defy this historical on-chain pattern this time, or if a market cooldown period is indeed ahead, remains to be seen.

这次比特币是否会违抗这种历史上的链链模式，或者是否确实在市场上进行冷却时期，还有待观察。